The retirement of Rep. John Shadegg (R-Ariz.) means Arizona is officially a top electoral battleground this year, with potentially half of its congressional seats in play.
Shadegg’s surprise announcement Monday that he will not seek an eighth term means four House races in Arizona could be competitive in November. Republicans hope to unseat freshman Democratic Reps. Gabrielle Giffords and Harry Mitchell, while Democrats think they have a shot at taking Shadegg’s seat. They also hope to win retiring Rep. Rick Renzi’s (R) seat.
{mosads}Combine that with the emergence of Arizona senior Sen. John McCain as the presumptive GOP presidential nominee, and the developments of the last few months could lead to an overhaul in the state’s already-changing political landscape.
State Republican Party executive director Sean McCaffrey said McCain’s ascent should bode well for the GOP in what is shaping up to be a big year. “November looks a lot brighter for Republicans in Arizona with McCain as the nominee,” McCaffrey said.
McCaffrey also said the state party has been flooded with calls interested in supporting a thus-far-non-existent Shadegg Senate candidacy.
Shadegg’s exit drove speculation that he was eyeing McCain’s Senate seat in case the septuagenarian presidential candidate vacates it, but state sources say talk of McCain leaving his seat before this year’s election is premature.
McCain is not up for reelection until 2010, meaning he could hold onto his seat in case he doesn’t win the presidency. But if he does hold onto his seat and he wins, his Republican replacement would be appointed by Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano.
An open Senate seat could also potentially lead to interest from other members of the state’s congressional delegation or even Napolitano, causing further open seats.
Shadegg’s exit should pave the way for a crowded and expensive GOP primary in the conservative district. The winner will almost surely be greeted by a well-funded Democratic challenger, attorney Bob Lord.
Talks about Shadegg’s seat began in earnest quickly after his announcement. Early favorites to compete for the GOP nomination include Shadegg chief of staff Sean Noble, state Treasurer Dean Martin, attorney Jordan Rose, state Sen. Jim Waring and a smattering of other state legislators.
Noble, who has long worked for Shadegg and has built an extensive record of political involvement in the state, said Tuesday that he is “leaning towards it” and that he will decide in the next couple weeks.
Previously this cycle, he turned down a run for Mitchell’s seat in the neighboring 5th district.
“I have a long history in this district,” Noble said. “I know the district better than anyone who might run for this seat.”{mospagebreak}
Waring said he is also likely to enter the race, as long as he feels he has the support.
“Realistically, I think I will probably be in the race is my guess,” Waring said, adding that he’ll probably decide by “early next week.”
{mosads}Martin, who served much of the congressional district when he was in the state Senate, is weighing his options.
Rose would help the state and national parties with her substantial wealth. She said she would “primarily self-fund” her campaign if she decided to run.
Other GOPers mentioned include state Sens. Pamela Gorman and Barbara Leff and state Reps. Sam Crump and Doug Clark.
In the meantime, Democrats are redoubling their efforts in their uphill quest for Shadegg’s seat. Lord raised $600,000 for the seat before Shadegg announced his retirement, and now an open seat should open the door a little wider to an upset.
State and national Democrats appear happy with their candidate, and the two top potential candidates have already declined to run.
Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon said Tuesday that he will not run for the seat, while 2006 Senate nominee Jim Pederson was set to endorse Lord.
In another sign of the party’s decision to back Lord, state party executive director Maria Weeg sent a fundraising appeal for Lord’s campaign on the heels of Shadegg’s announcement. The e-mail proclaimed Lord to be “the front-runner” in the race and played up his early fundraising success.
“The party is behind Bob Lord; we all committed to his candidacy,” said a source close to the state party.
Democrats have sought to compare the district to Mitchell’s, where the former Tempe mayor upset Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) in 2006. Both lean conservative, but Shadegg was never confronted with a serious challenge until this year.
Shadegg received less than 60 percent of the vote for the first time in 2006, but he still won 59-38. He is the 29th Republican House member to leave his seat this cycle.
Bruce Merrill, a pollster at Arizona State University, said that few anticipated Shadegg’s retirement but that the dist-
rict’s bent should keep it in Republican hands.
Walter Alarkon contributed to this report.