Dems’ 19-seat gain not making splash

A 19-seat gain is supposed to be remarkable in a gerrymandered Congress, but on Tuesday, it wasn’t.
Expectations for House Democrats were so high that the sub-30 seat gain was a blip on the screen instead of a big splash.

House Dems could gain as many as 28 seats total this cycle. Six major congressional races remained unresolved Wednesday evening, and the party took three seats from the GOP in special elections earlier this year.

{mosads}Regardless of the outcomes of the outstanding races, Democrats came in above predictions offered by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) Chairman Chris Van Hollen (Md.).

But pundits and analysts had put the potential gain much higher.

Pelosi suggested Democrats might gain 14 seats and reach a 250-seat majority, while Van Hollen tried to lower expectations when the talk ventured into the 20- or 30-seat realm.

Van Hollen has frequently emphasized the fact that Democrats would have an unprecedented second-straight “wave election,” and he said Wednesday that they were “breaking the historical curse.”

On the other side, National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) Chairman Tom Cole (Okla.) expressed satisfaction that Republicans held fast to some dicey open-seat races and avoided a second-straight 30-seat drubbing.

“We sort of got through this a little bit better than some people might have expected,” Cole said just after midnight Wednesday.

Despite Cole’s optimism, Republicans still face the loss of half a dozen more seats, which were still being sorted out nearly 24 hours after the polls closed on them.

A trio of races were within 500 votes, including Rep. Virgil Goode’s (R-Va.) reelection race and the open seats of retiring Reps. Deborah Pryce (R-Ohio) and John Doolittle (R-Calif.).

Another two are within about 1,000 votes, and one seat will be up for grabs in Louisiana in December.

All of the districts are currently held by the GOP.

In the closest race, Democrat Tom Perriello led Goode by just 31 votes out of more than 310,000 cast with 100 percent of precincts in, according to the State Board of Elections. Both candidates are closely watching canvassing and waiting for provisional and absentee ballots to be counted.

Neither would say whether he will ask for a recount if he winds up behind.

“This is a tight election and we are proud to be ahead,” Goode said Wednesday, before the race tipped back in Perriello’s favor. “We are confident when every vote is counted that we will be ahead.

“We’ll evaluate this situation if that occurs.”

In Pryce’s seat, Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy is holding out hope as she trails GOP state Sen. Steve Stivers by 321 votes. Thousands of votes remained uncounted in Franklin County, where Kilroy serves as a commissioner and where she led Stivers 48-43.

“We are confident that when the Board of Elections completes their work that Mary Jo Kilroy will be declared the winner, given the number of ballots that have yet to be counted in Franklin County,” spokesman Brad Bauman said in a statement.

In Doolittle’s district, GOP state Sen. Tom McClintock led Democrat Charlie Brown by 451 votes with 100 percent of precincts in, according to the secretary of state.

It could be déjà vu for McClintock, who lost a recount in the state controller’s race in 2004.

In the open seat being vacated by Rep. Wayne Gilchrest (R-Md.), Democrat Frank Kratovil led Republican state Sen. Andy Harris (R) by 915 votes with nearly all precincts in, according to the State Board of Elections.

{mospagebreak}“I will work with the county Boards of Elections and Mr. Kratovil’s campaign to make sure that we come to a conclusion quickly, so that we can get back to work for the people of the 1st district,” said Harris, who ousted Gilchrest in a primary.

Rep. Dave Reichert (R-Wash.) led by 1,149 votes, but less than half of precincts were reporting by late Wednesday afternoon.

In Alabama, Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright (D) apparently won’t need a recount in retiring Rep. Terry Everett’s (R-Ala.) district.

{mosads}Republican state Rep. Jay Love’s campaign told the The Hill that it is unlikely to pay for a recount, despite losing to Bright by fewer than 2,000 votes.

 “If we began to hear of any irregularities or anything that would suggest the need for a recount, we might reconsider, but there’s nothing at this point,” Love campaign manager Michael Lowry said.

There was no official call by Wednesday evening in Rep. Don Young’s (R-Alaska) district, but he led Democrat Ethan Berkowitz 52-44 with 99 percent of precincts in.

Democrats will also have a chance to pick up another seat in four weeks, when the delayed Louisiana 4th district race is decided.

Democrat Paul Carmouche and Republican John Fleming each won their primary runoffs on Election Day. The race for retiring Rep. Jim McCrery’s (R-La.) seat was pushed back one month due to Hurricane Gustav.

In the other race that was pushed back, Rep. William Jefferson (D-La.) won re-nomination, 57-43. His reelection is now a formality, barring further developments in his current federal indictment.

Both races will conclude Dec. 6.