One thing is certain about Sen. Arlen Specter’s momentous decision to switch from Republican to Democrat: He is in a much better position to win reelection than he was 24 hours ago.
But there is still plenty to sort out, both in Specter’s home state of Pennsylvania and across the country.
{mosads}Specter’s party switch has taken what was looking to be a very interesting primary and general election in the Keystone State and made the race look second-tier — at least on paper.
While Specter’s stock among Republicans has plummeted in recent months, putting him in jeopardy of losing to conservative former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), recent polling has shown Specter’s overall approval and job performance rating in the low 50s. A Democrat running in a blue-leaning state with those kinds of numbers is not generally a top target.
And it seems doubtful that Specter would fall in a primary. A Quinnipiac poll from last month showed he had a 71 percent approval rating among Democrats, with just 16 percent disapproving. On top of that, Specter will have the support of Gov. Ed Rendell (D), the Democratic leadership and President Obama, who has promised to raise money for Specter and visit the state.
But all of those promises were made and all those numbers were polled when Specter was a Republican, and he’s in a much different position now. As the likely 60th Democratic vote in the Senate, his voice will be paramount on many major issues, and he’s never been afraid to ruffle feathers in his conference.
Specter signaled Tuesday that party leaders won’t be able to count on his vote — including on the top-billed union-organizing Employee Free Choice Act. The act is a top priority, and labor unions could play a key role in supporting a primary challenge.
“I will not be an automatic 60th vote,” Specter said plainly.
At least one top Democrat interested in the race signaled that he would like to see what the new Democratic Specter is like.
{mospagebreak}Rep. Joe Sestak (D-Pa.) suggested Specter’s move was purely political, and he is not yet pulling his name from consideration for the Senate race.
“Arlen has made a decision to leave a race because he could not win against someone. What needs to be known is what he is running for,” Sestak said. “In short, I believe that the principles of what he is running for and his commitment to accountable leadership are questions that still need to be addressed.”
{mosads}Specter gave plenty of nods Tuesday to the strategy behind his decision, saying that he polled extensively and concluded that he was unlikely to win in a Republican primary.
He cited the many centrist Republicans who have left the state party in recent years, saying it both made the party less welcoming and gave him little shot of winning re-nomination in 2010.
“The prospects for winning a Republican primary are bleak,” Specter said. “I am not prepared to have my 29-year record in the United States Senate decided by the Pennsylvania Republican primary electorate — not prepared to have that record decided by that jury.”
Sestak, despite being in just his second term in the House, has banked an astounding $3.3 million already — a sure sign of big ambitions.
And former Deputy Philadelphia Mayor Joe Torsella, the only declared Democratic candidate in the race, raised a relatively impressive $600,000 in the first quarter. Torsella has indicated he’s staying in the race.
Republicans will also have to sort out their side of the equation.
Sen. John Cornyn (Texas), the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), said in an interview with The Hill last week that he doubted Toomey could win in a general election in Pennsylvania.
{mospagebreak}Now Toomey is his party’s front-runner, and Cornyn is faced with the difficult and awkward task of knocking off his one-time GOP colleague, and probably facing a primary for the one-time GOP seat.
Despite his near-miss primary challenge to Specter in 2004, Toomey’s name recognition remains very low, and he likely won’t scare away top challengers.
{mosads}Other potential Republican candidates being mentioned include former Gov. Tom Ridge and Reps. Jim Gerlach, Charlie Dent and Tim Murphy.
Before his switch, Specter championed the two-party system and called all of the 41 Republican senators “national treasures” for their ability to check Democrats’ power.
Republicans made it clear they will go after Specter for going back on his many pledges not to switch parties and for abandoning his emphasis on a potent minority party.
“What Pennsylvanians must now ask themselves is whether Sen. Specter is in fact devoted to any principle other than his own reelection,” Toomey said.
Cornyn said that “voters next year will have a clear choice to cast their ballots for a potentially unbridled [Democratic] supermajority versus the system of checks and balances that Americans deserve.”
Cornyn’s counterpart, Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.), hailed Specter’s switch as a “game-changer” and immediately sought to put pressure on former Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.) to abandon his court challenge to Democrat Al Franken’s win in Minnesota’s Senate race.
Now that Specter is a Democrat, Franken represents the 60th Democratic vote, putting a new heap of pressure on all involved in that process.
Also, in Texas, the pressure on Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) to remain in her seat while she runs for governor might subside. Hutchison has suggested that she could vacate the seat, but Republicans have pressured her to stay so she wouldn’t allow Democrats a chance to win a 60th seat in a free-for-all special election.