NotedDC — Progressives’ Ukraine plea sparks uproar, confusion

Progressive lawmakers are seeking to tamp down confusion and explain themselves after their names appeared on a letter this week urging President Biden to consider directly engaging with Russia amid its war in Ukraine.

The letter, signed by 30 House Democrats, landed with a bang on Monday, coming just two weeks before Election Day and at a time when Democrats are generally nervous about the status of continued Ukraine aid if the GOP retakes the House. 

The Democratic signatories drew swift backlash from members of both parties, who said the letter undercut Ukraine’s efforts to take back territory from Moscow and ignored the Biden administration’s strategy of forcing Russia to withdraw its forces. 

“The way to end a war? Win it quickly. How is it won quickly? By giving Ukraine the weapons to defeat Russia,” tweeted Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.). 

Members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus who signed the letter scrambled to explain themselves. Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Wis.), one signatory, tweeted that the letter was written in July and “I have no idea why it went out now. Bad timing.”

House sources told The Hill’s Hanna Trudo on Tuesday that the letter was circulated earlier this summer and the reason for its release so close to election was unclear.

“They waited to get about 30 and released,” one source said. “Didn’t consider election timing.”

Members sought to clarify the circumstances around the letter before Progressive Caucus Chair Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) ultimately moved to withdraw it on Tuesday afternoon, saying the timing was a mistake.

“The letter was drafted several months ago, but unfortunately was released by staff without vetting. As Chair of the Caucus, I accept responsibility for this,” she said.

The release of the letter came as Biden has acknowledged he’s worried about the status of Ukraine aid if Republicans win the House in the November elections.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) has recently signaled Republicans would seek to pull the plug on the billions in aid to Ukraine as it battles Russia’s attack, with many GOP lawmakers calling for stronger oversight of funding.

“Because of the timing, our message is being conflated by some as being equivalent to the recent statement by Republican Leader McCarthy threatening an end to aid to Ukraine if Republicans take over,” Jayapal said.

But Jayapal’s efforts to tamp down the backlash has so far failed to quell the uproar, with members lamenting the timing with just two weeks until the midterms.

The initial letter also has circulated in Russia’s state-owned media as a sign of discord in the U.S. over continued support for Ukraine.

This is NotedDC, looking at the politics, policy and the people behind the stories in Washington.

A special welcome today to Amee LaTour, who joins us this week and will be co-writing this newsletter with Elizabeth Crisp.

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The outlook two weeks from Election Day

With the midterms two weeks away and Democrats holding small majorities in each chamber of Congress, we’re looking at what three forecasters are saying. Two out of three see a GOP advantage for the House, while Senate forecasts are more mixed. 

First, the Senate:

• FiveThirtyEight says “Democrats are slightly favored to win the Senate” (updated Oct. 25)
• Politico calls the Senate a toss-up (updated Oct. 19)
• The Economist says “Democrats are likely to keep their majority” (updated Oct. 16) 

Some differences: The Economist considers Pennsylvania very likely and Georgia likely to go to Democrats, whereas the other outlets see those as toss-ups.

The Economist also considers North Carolina uncertain, while the other outlets see the state as favoring Republicans.

RealClearPolitics’ averages of recent polls for those and other possibly close Senate races are below: 

• Georgia: Warnock (D) 47%; Walker (R) 46.5% 
• Pennsylvania: Fetterman (D) 47.3%; Oz (R) 46% 
• Ohio: Vance (R) 47.2%; Ryan (D) 45.2% 
• Nevada: Laxalt (R) 47.3%; Cortez Masto (D) 46.5%  
• Wisconsin: Johnson (R) 50.7%; Barnes (D) 48% 
• North Carolina: Budd (R) 47%; Beasley (D) 43.3% 

And the House: 

• FiveThirtyEight says “Republicans are favored to win the House” (updated Oct. 25)
• Politico calls the House Likely Republican (updated Oct. 19)
• The Economist says the “race for the House is very close” (updated Oct. 16) 

BRIEFLY

Hope Hicks, the former White House aide and close adviser to former President Trump, was scheduled to speak before the House Jan. 6 committee on Tuesday. It’s unclear how helpful Hicks will be, The Hill’s Rebecca Beitsch reports.

Who’s the clear conservative leader on the nation’s high court? Legal experts are split on whether that title belongs to Brett Kavanaugh, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito or even John Roberts, according to The Hill’s John Kruzel.

President Biden got his updated COVID-19 shot on camera Tuesday, urging the public to follow his lead and get the bivalent omicron-specific jab to ensure “a safe and healthy holiday season.”

Ash Carter, the former Obama Defense secretary who oversaw major changes at the Pentagon including the opening of all military occupations to women, has died from a heart attack at age 68.

Graham finds supreme ally in lawsuit challenge

This week, Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas temporarily saved Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C) from having to testify in a Georgia case looking at alleged efforts by former President Trump‘s allies to interfere in the 2020 election. 

• Thomas is, of course, married to Ginni Thomas, an ardent Trump supporter who reportedly testified recently before the House Jan. 6 committee that she still thinks that the 2020 election was stolen.
  
• Graham is one of Trump’s strongest supporters in Congress and has backed the former president despite efforts by a mob of angry Trump fans seeking to stop Congress from certifying the election results on Jan. 6, 2021.

The move is likely only temporary but Thomas made it solo, without referring the issue to the rest of the Supreme Court. 

Cancer Moonshot coordinator talks bipartisan action

Danielle Carnival, White House coordinator of the Cancer Moonshot initiative, talked with The Hill contributing editor Steve Scully at The Hill’s Health Care Innovations: The Next Big Breakthrough event on Tuesday.

President Biden is pushing the Cancer Moonshot initiative with the goal of halving the cancer death rate within 25 years and improving experiences for people affected by cancer.

Carnival said the federal government began pursing Biden’s goals by “getting our house in order,” including bringing “all parts of government together and mak[ing] sure that we’re not creating siloes between the great research that happens at the Department of Defense and Veterans Affairs, along with what happens at Health and Human Services, Department of Energy … and many others.” 

• Carnival said recent bipartisan congressional action is furthering the initiative’s goals. She said the 2021 infrastructure law is contributing to prevention by “cleaning up water pipes and toxic sites.”
  
• Carnival also credited the Inflation Reduction Act with “capping out-of-pocket costs for seniors on Medicare that are facing cancer and other diseases.”

Watch the event here.

EVENT INVITE

Tune in and attend Wednesday for The Hill’s State of American Education event, where editor-in-chief Bob Cusack will talk with Utah Gov. Spencer Cox (R), Department of Education Assistant Secretary Roberto Rodriguez and other policymakers and experts about their take on the pandemic’s effects on students and ideas on how to make up education losses. Register here.

2024 weighs heavily in Florida debate

The Florida debate between GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis and Democratic challenger Charlie Crist got tense, with DeSantis, seen as a possible contender for president in 2024, refusing to answer whether he will serve a full term if reelected governor. 

“I just want to make things very, very clear,” DeSantis said. “The only worn-out, old donkey I’m looking to put out to pasture is Charlie Crist.” 

You can read more about their testy showdown here. 

DEBATE NIGHT

The next key debate to watch: Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) faces his Republican opponent Mehmet Oz on Tuesday night in what’s seen as one of the most crucial races for control of the Senate next year.

The Fetterman-Oz debate, which is hosted by WHTM in Harrisburg, will be aired nationwide on NewsNation. Both WHTM and NewsNation are owned by Nexstar, which also owns The Hill.

How to watch: The local stations and websites that will show the Fetterman-Oz Pennsylvania Senate Debate live. 

RBG honored with Forever Stamp

Former Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg will be featured on one of the U.S. Postal Service’s (USPS) 2023 “Forever” stamps. The stamps will cost 63 cents.

USPS said: “After beginning her career as an activist lawyer fighting gender discrimination, Justice Ginsburg became a respected jurist whose important majority opinions advancing equality and strong dissents on socially controversial rulings made her a passionate proponent of equal justice and an icon of American culture.” 

Number To Know

4.6 Million

The number of people ineligible to vote this year because of felony convictions, per a new report 

ONE MORE THING: JOIN THE HILL’S ‘GROUP TEXT CHAT’

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