The high cost of food, gas and other household items are leaving millions of Americans feeling the pinch heading into the holiday season and keeping the issue of inflation top-of-mind for many voters in the final weeks before Election Day.

A new Morning Consult survey sheds light on how the high prices are impacting families, with many people already budgeting to factor in higher costs, potential travelers reevaluating their holiday plans and grocery shoppers showing their stress.

Whether booking flights for the holidays, buying gifts or food, or paying out energy bills heading into the colder months, Americans face a reminder at nearly every turn about rising prices.

“I think there is a lot of pain out there for inflation,” James Hughes, a professor and dean emeritus of the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University, told NotedDC. “People see and feel it.” 

An election problem? Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) acknowledged in a recent interview with Punchbowl News that Democrats aren’t doing a good job of messaging on inflation, which ultimately could tip the scale on midterm elections.

“Inflation’s an issue, but it’s global. It’s global. … What’s [the Republicans’] plan? They ain’t got nothing. When you bring down unemployment, inflation goes up. … So in any case, [President Biden] brought unemployment [down], cut it in half,” she said.

The University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers has shown a steady drop in consumer sentiment over much of the past year.

Hughes, the economic policy expert, said ongoing talk of a possible recession has been “probably the longest, most anticipated prelude to a recession” he’s seen, with near-daily stories on the topic.

That adds to the view among consumers — and, thus, voters — about the perceived economic climate, he said.

“That’s an attitude that has pervaded the general public,” Hughes said. “I think that if we get some more bad economic news in the next couple of weeks it’s not going to be good for the president.”

Biden’s reaction: While Biden and Democrats have sought to put the focus on other issues, such as trying to codify abortion rights by keeping their majorities in Congress, the White House has been unable to escape the issue of rising inflation.

“Families are hurting,” Biden said Wednesday. “You’ve heard me say before, but I get it.”

Welcome to NotedDC, your guide to politics, policy and people of consequence in D.C. and across the U.S. Today’s newsletter comes from The Hill’s Liz Crisp. 

⛽️ Biden tries to offer comfort on gas problem issue

President Biden brushed off criticism about the timing of the administration’s release of the final 15 million barrels of oil he’s ordered released from the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve, a move aimed at alleviating Americans’ pain at the pump.

• Biden said Wednesday that the move is “not politically motivated at all.”
  
• “It’s motivated to make sure I continue to push on what I’ve been pushing on, and that’s making sure there’s enough oil that’s being pumped by the companies so that we have the ability to be able to produce enough gas that we need here at home, and at the same time keep moving in a direction of providing for alternative energy,” he said. 

The announcement completes Biden’s plan to release a total of 180 million barrels this year, with the latest drawdown coming less than three weeks before a midterm cycle where Democrats are in danger of losing their congressional majorities.

Gas prices hit record levels over the summer. And while they have already been on a decline since then, recent news that OPEC+ will cut production in November by 2 million barrels a day has caused concerns that prices could spike again. 

Read more on what’s happening from The Hill here. 

🎤 Fetterman turns to ‘Scranton Joe’ for boost

President Biden will be in Pennsylvania on Thursday to stump for Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D), who is running for an open Senate seat against celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz. The Pennsylvania race is tight and seen as crucial for control of the Senate in the coming term.

Fetterman has faced intense questions from Oz supporters about his health after a near-fatal stroke in May. On Wednesday, Fetterman released a note from his doctor explaining that he has auditory issues but is fit to do his work and hold office.  

Why it matters: Biden notably has been holding mostly private events, focusing on fundraising with VIP donors, heading into the critical midterm elections. He’s not doing the large-scale rallies that past presidents — and even Biden last year during the Georgia Senate runoff — have held.

Often the Biden midterm campaign events this year haven’t allowed cameras inside, but a limited pool of reporters have been allowed in with their notebooks. It’s similar to Biden’s MO in his own campaign during the height of the coronavirus pandemic. 

The White House has said that Biden speaks often with Fetterman and is confident in the candidate. He also will be joining him for an event.

“We’ll share more of where, who’s going to be attending, as we always do,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters Wednesday. “But as you know, John Fetterman will be with the president tomorrow.” 

🇺🇦 House GOP leader defends Ukraine aid comment

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said Wednesday on CNBC that he stands by his comments suggesting that a GOP-controlled Congress could curb the amount of money sent to Ukraine amid its efforts to defend against Russia’s invasion.

“I think Ukraine is very important. I support making sure that we move forward to defeat Russia in that program. But there should be no blank check on anything. We are $31 trillion in debt,” McCarthy said. 

The Hill’s Laura Kelly spoke to Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.), a member of the House Armed Services Committee, about the GOP’s support for Ukraine and whether it could shift come January. Read what he told her here.

QUOTABLE

“Now is not the time to shrink from the battle.”

– Former Vice President Mike Pence during an event Wednesday in Washington, arguing Republicans should be more outspoken pushing back against abortion.

Why it matters: Many on the right have been mum on the issue of abortion, recognizing that polls show most voters support abortion rights.

But Pence, who is weighing a potential 2024 GOP presidential bid, has pressed into the issue while speaking to friendly audiences, including on Wednesday.

“This is a nation that cherishes life, and if we hold the banner of life high, the American people will rally to our cause,” Pence said at the Heritage Foundation.

Pence’s comment came a day after President Biden leaned into the issue of reproductive rights to try to rally voters before the midterms. Biden promised that his mission heading into the next congressional term would be to codify abortion rights.

CRUCIAL VOTING BLOC

Two House lawmakers say neither Democrats nor Republicans are doing enough to reach female voters heading into this year’s midterms. 

Reps. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) and Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) spoke at The Hill’s 50+ Women Voters and the Midterms event on Wednesday afternoon, discussing the key voting bloc that multiple polls have shown to be among the most reliable voters.

The event, sponsored by AARP, included lots of discussion about issues that older women face and their concerns for future generations.  

Other participants included Nancy LeaMond, executive vice president and chief advocacy and engagement officer of the AARP; Clarissa Martínez de Castro, vice president of Latino vote initiative at UnidosUS; and Kate Ryan, vice president of policy and strategic initiatives at the Institute for Women’s Policy Research. 

Read more here and watch the full event here.  

BLISTERING DEBATE NIGHT IN FLORIDA 

The only expected debate between Sen. Marco Rubio (R) and Rep. Val Demings (D) in their battle over Rubio’s Senate seat was heated Tuesday night — to say the least. Here’s just an example of their bitter, often-personal showdown:

• Demings: “The senator, who has never run anything at all but his mouth, would know nothing about helping people and being there for people when they are in trouble.”
  
• Rubio: “I don’t know what word you prefer: socialist, Marxist, crazy? I don’t know. I’m open to suggestions.” 

Get all the highlights from The Hill here. 

WORLD CUP WATCH

The White House will send a delegation to the FIFA World Cup in Qatar next month, though it hasn’t yet revealed who will represent the country to cheer on Team USA.

• “This is an important event and we’re going to be cheering on Team USA,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Wednesday.
  
• Often, the president himself or other top administration officials would attend. However, Qatar has been a controversial site due to human rights concerns.

“As you’ve heard from the president, he has said this directly himself, he will always and will continue to call out any human rights abuses. That is something that he never shies away from, whether it is leader to leader or whether it is speaking about it outright. And so that will be something that he will continue to do,” Jean-Pierre said.

The Persian Gulf country has already had to move the event from the summer because of heat, which has meant many top players can’t make it during regular play.

NUMBER TO KNOW

25% 

How much home sales dropped in September amid recent interest rate hikes. 

One more thing

• The six living former first ladies (several of whom have had personal, election-driven differences) are all on the same page about one thing: They want a monument to women’s suffrage on the National Mall.
  
• The members of the first ladies’ club have each been named honorary chairs for the Women’s Suffrage National Monument Foundation. 

According to the foundation, “In their role as Honorary Chairs, the First Ladies will spearhead the Foundation’s efforts to ensure that the 36 million people who visit our National Mall each year experience a deeper and more inclusive American story.”

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