NotedDC — Parties brace for Georgia redux

NotedDC is a newsletter from The Hill looking at the politics, policy and people behind the stories in Washington. Sign up in the box below to get a copy of it each week.

Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and GOP challenger Herschel Walker are headed to a high-stakes runoff that could decide which party controls the Senate.

Multiple news outlets projected Wednesday that the pair would head to a runoff after neither clinched the necessary more than 50 percent support in Tuesday’s election.

Warnock had 49.4 percent of the vote to Walker’s 48.5 percent as of Wednesday afternoon. The runoff is scheduled for Dec. 6.

While Senate control could be decided by either party winning both Arizona and Nevada, it appears increasingly likely the Georgia runoff will determine control of the upper chamber for the second time in two years.

Warnock won the special Senate runoff election on Jan. 5, 2021, alongside regular Senate runoff election winner Jon Ossoff (D). Their victories solidified Democrats’ majority in the 50-50 chamber, with Vice President Harris serving as a tie-breaker.

Both parties are expected to spend heavily if control of the upper chamber hinges on this race, with millions of dollars in outside spending pouring into the Peach State.

Open Secrets reported that the 2020 Georgia races were the most expensive Senate races ever. In the runoffs alone, outside groups spent more than $300 million across both the special and regular elections.

AdImpact tweeted on Oct. 31 that Warnock was “the 8th highest spending candidate advertiser EVER for a singular office” with $81.7 million spent in this year’s race. “The top 7 are all Presidential campaigns.” 

The campaigns have already started making fundraising pitches for the runoff. Don’t expect pennies to be pinched the next four weeks. 

Charles Bullock, political science professor at the University of Georgia’s School of Public & International Affairs, told NotedDC that the runoff may favor Warnock, since the Senate race is “going to be the only thing on the ballot.”

“There’s not going to be Brian Kemp at the top of the ticket… so, no coattails for Herschel Walker to grab onto,” Bullock said, referring to the incumbent GOP Georgia governor who easily won reelection on Tuesday.

In the weeks leading up to the election, allegations arose that Walker had paid for previous partners to get abortions. He has campaigned on his opposition to abortion and denied the women’s allegations.  

FiveThirtyEight’s polling average showed a dip in Walker’s poll numbers early in October, followed by a fairly steady increase since mid-October. Still, he performed below Kemp’s 53 percent on Tuesday.

Along with huge spending, the two-month 2020 runoff brought an influx of prominent Democrats and Republicans to Georgia, including then-President Trump and Vice President Mike Pence, as well as President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris. 

Bullock noted that Trump hasn’t held an event in Georgia recently and that “there’s no love lost between” Trump and most other Republicans at the top of the ticket last night. But “the only reason Walker ran is because Trump induced him to run,” Bullock said. “He is essentially Trump’s creation.” 

And if Trump does announce another White House bid before the runoff, Bullock predicted it’ll likely boost Warnock among college-educated, white, likely Republican voters who don’t like the former president.

“Can’t vote against him in December of 2022, but you can vote against his stand-in … against Herschel Walker.”

This is NotedDC, we’re The Hill’s Liz Crisp and Amée LaTour. Have a tip or feedback? Email us at ecrisp@digital-release.thehill.com and alatour@digital-release.thehill.com.

GOP edges closer in House; Senate a toss-up

Republicans are expected to still win the House, though narrowly. Control of the Senate looks to hinge on the runoff in Georgia.

Check out The Hill’s live blog here for the latest coverage and view updated maps and results here to see where things stand.

Election night surprises

Many of Tuesday’s results remain unknown, and in some cases, the remaining uncertainty itself is a surprise. Here are some of election night’s biggest stunners:

Control of House far more competitive than thought

Around midnight on the East Coast, “Meet the Press” host Chuck Todd remarked that it was the first time during his tenure with NBC, starting with the 2008 election cycle, that they couldn’t call House control on election night. “And I’m guessing [it] probably hasn’t happened since maybe when television started,” Todd said. 

Predictions were largely on the same page about a GOP majority. Sabato’s Crystal Ball forecasted a House split of 237-198 favoring Republicans. As of 1 p.m. ET Wednesday, the breakdown sat at 203-175, with several races uncalled. GOP House control remains the likely outcome. 

Miami-Dade County went red 

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was the first Republican gubernatorial candidate to win Miami-Dade County since Jeb Bush in 2002.

DeSantis received 55 percent of the vote in the county to Democratic challenger Charlie Crist’s 44 percent. In 2018, DeSantis lost the county to Democrat Andrew Gillum 39 percent to 60 percent. 

Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R) 54 percent to 45 percent win in the county over Val Demings (D) was also a big shift from his last election in 2016, when Democrat Patrick Murphy won the county 55 percent to 43 percent. 

Boebert race a nail-biter

Of all the toss-up House districts we’ve heard about this cycle, Colorado’s 3rd wasn’t one of them. Yet with about 93 percent of results in, Democrat Adam Frisch leads incumbent Lauren Boebert (R) 50.6 percent to 49.4 percent.

The 3rd District is no stranger to surprises. In 2020, Boebert beat then-incumbent Scott Tipton in an under-the-radar GOP primary.  

Redistricting altered the boundaries of the 3rd District in favor of Republicans, making this nail-biter extra surprising. FiveThirtyEight gave the current district a partisan lean of R+15.

One major blow for House Dems

House Democrats put up a stronger showing than most expected Tuesday night, but one loss in particular will be stinging the party for some time: Sean Patrick Maloney.

Maloney, chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), House Democrats’ campaign arm, conceded to GOP challenger Mike Lawler in New York’s 17th District on Wednesday.

It’s the first defeat for a campaign chair of either party since 1980, The Hill’s Zach Schonfeld and Caroline Vakil report. 

Why it matters: It marks an embarrassing defeat for Maloney, who switched districts under new congressional maps to run in a more favorable area.

That move sparked uproar among Democrats, as he pushed out Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.), who currently represents the 17th District, forcing him to run in the 10th District. Jones ultimately lost his primary in that district in August.

Lawler, a first-term state assemblyman, was aided by millions of dollars spent on ads from outside groups, scoring an upset in a district that voted for President Biden by 10 points in 2020.

ELECTION NIGHT WINNERS & LOSERS — AND WHO JUST SCRAPED BY

Several races across the country remain close and the final dust hasn’t settled, though some clear early winners and losers have emerged from Tuesday’s results:

► WINNERS

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R)

The Florida governor has been riding a wave of support following his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, when he refused health officials’ calls to shut businesses down, require vaccinations and mandate masks.  

He’s been called a “mini-Trump” and is generating steady buzz about his own White House potential, while shirking the former president who previously endorsed him.

DeSantis put up a nearly 20-point win over former Gov. Charlie Crist (a Republican-turned-independent-turned-Democrat). 

Trump has taken aim at DeSantis in recent days, calling him “Ron DeSanctimonious” and holding a rivaling campaign rally in Florida, but it doesn’t appear to have harmed DeSantis’s standing in the Sunshine State.

Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa)

Grassley, 89, who has been in the Senate since 1981 (and previously in the House for six years), won another six-year term Tuesday. Grassley has been seen as key to helping the GOP hold onto the Iowa seat. While polls at once point suggested the Iowa race may be competitive, they recently showed the seven-term GOP incumbent with a commanding lead.

He will be among the oldest sitting senators. Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) is the oldest sitting senator — she’s about three months older than Grassley.

President Biden

Despite all odds — record-high inflation, sagging polls and an ongoing war in Ukraine — the president racked up a lot more wins than pundits had expected, keeping Democrats’ hopes alive of retaining control of at least one chamber.

Midterms typically spell trouble for the party occupying the White House. Biden had even largely stayed off the campaign trail, sending surrogates instead to campaign for many candidates who could have been dinged by the appearance of being too chummy with him.

One notable exception was Pennsylvania, where its native son Biden held multiple campaign rallies and events in support of Democrat John Fetterman, who defeated the Trump-backed celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz. 

► LOSERS

Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.)

Maloney, chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee responsible for helping elect House Democrats, couldn’t eke out his own win.

Republican challenger Mike Lawler was projected to capture the district, which covers parts of Westchester and the lower Hudson Valley.

Republicans

Tuesday wasn’t the bloodbath many predicted for Democrats, despite the president’s party typically suffering major losses in midterm cycles.

Democrats have minimized pickups for Republicans in the House, where the GOP will have to navigate a party split between far-right conservatives and more moderate Republicans.

And while the Senate remains up in the air, even if Republicans do take a majority it appears it will be by a smaller margin than the party hoped for.

Just a few hours before polls closed Tuesday, Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) predicted a “red wave” was on its way. Instead, her race remains too close to call, with more than 90 percent of precincts reporting a day after the election.

Boebert, whose once-rising profile has been linked to her stance on gun rights — she owned a restaurant called “Shooters Grill” in Rifle, Colo., where workers were expected to carry firearms to match the theme — had been predicted to sail into a second term in Congress against challenger Adam Frisch (D). 

Boebert’s fellow GOP stalwarts Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) both easily won reelection. 

► DRAW 

House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy (Calif.)

McCarthy, who just won his ninth term in Congress, has long had his eyes on the Speaker’s office, having bowed out of consideration in 2015 before later taking over as minority leader when Democrats took control of the chamber in 2019.

And while he’s still favored for the position, a narrower GOP majority than anticipated could require extra effort to shore up his path to the Speaker’s gavel in a chamber with increasingly divergent voices.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.)

Pelosi might not be Speaker in the next Congress, but she correctly predicted that her party would beat expectations on Tuesday night.

Pelosi, 82, has had a rough few weeks — her husband was brutally attacked during a home invasion at their San Francisco home. She’s likely losing her hold on the Speaker’s gavel. And it’s an open question how much longer she’ll try to lead House Democrats.

Still, she managed to keep hold of many House seats on Tuesday that could have been in danger and make sure the GOP had a narrow path to the majority.

Former President Trump (R)

The former president was expected to announce his plans for the 2024 election imminently. But his mixed record of backing candidates in the midterms — several won Tuesday, while notably Pennsylvania Senate candidate Mehmet Oz and Michigan gubernatorial candidate Tudor Dixon lost — has raised questions about whether the MAGA-anointed have lost their shine.

Trump still remains the most popular Republican and a frontrunner for the 2024 nomination, though Tuesday’s results — coupled with DeSantis’s big win in Florida — have raised the specter of a serious looming battle for GOP standard bearer.

OTHER ISSUES ON THE BALLOT: ABORTION, MARIJUANA, SPORTS BETTING

While all eyes were on the midterm elections and what they mean for control of the House and Senate, several states took up their own items — from abortion to marijuana. Here’s where those came in:

Abortion: Since the Supreme Court this summer upended the landmark Roe v. Wade decision that had ensured abortion rights for decades, several states put the issue to the test on Election Day. Vermont, California and Michigan all voted to ensure abortion rights in their state constitutions, while voters in Kentucky rejected an amendment that was aimed at enshrining an abortion ban.

Marijuana: Polls show that most Americans are in favor of legalizing or decriminalizing marijuana use. Several states put it to the test this week. Voters in Maryland and Missouri voted in favor of efforts to move toward marijuana legalization, while North Dakota, South Dakota and Arkansas voted against legalization.

Miscellaneous: Sports betting, voting laws and minimum wage were also on the ballot. Connecticut voters overwhelmingly supported a step toward allowing early voting. California voters rejected an effort to legalize betting on sports. And Washington, D.C., voters approved a measure to phase out tipped minimum wages for bars and restaurants.

QUOTABLE

“While we are still awaiting the outcome of many races around the country, one thing is clear – the American people chose to stand up against an unprecedented wave of radical conspiracy theorists.”

– Martin Luther King III and Arndrea Waters King in a statement on Tuesday’s election outcome

NUMBER TO KNOW

5

Days until members of Congress head back to Washington to wrap up their lame-duck session. There are some big items on the agenda, including a crucial spending plan, the future of the child tax credit and proposals to raise the debt ceiling, among other issues.

LOBBY WORLD

The Hill’s Karl Evers-Hillstrom has a weekly roundup of news from the lobbying world (and you can send NotedDC your professional updates too!). 

Here are some highlights from this week:

David Castagnetti joined Dentons Global Advisors as a partner. He previously served as chief of staff to former Sen. Max Baucus (D-Mont.).

News Corp. hired Rachel Bissex as vice president of federal government affairs. Bissex was a senior advisor to the Senate Judiciary Committee and a top aide to Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa). 

Dan Curran and Caroline Hegeman joined the public affairs team at McKinsey & Co. 

Check out more moves here and send us your updates! 

– – — BRIEFLY  ✉️  💫  🏀  💨  — – –

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) sent House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) a handwritten apology after he made light of the attack on her husband, Paul Pelosi.

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) says the results from Tuesday’s midterm elections show that former President Trump’s political priorities are “about” himself and not the GOP. 

The attorneys and agent for imprisoned WNBA star Brittney Griner say that the star athlete’s health is their top concern after Griner was transferred to a Russian penal colony. 

Crews have evacuated dozens of people from vulnerable locations in the northwestern Bahamas as Tropical Storm Nicole approaches the United States coastline, and residents of Florida braced for the storm, which could strengthen to a rare November hurricane. 

🐆 One more thing

The cheetah cubs at the Smithsonian’s National Zoo & Conservation Biology Institute are a month old! The cheetah cub cam is your fix for an election night hangover. Mom Amani’s two male cubs are starting to get more active, and you can watch all their cuteness. No official names have been provided.

Have some news, juicy gossip, insight or other insider info? Send us tips. And encourage friends to sign up here: digital-release.thehill.com/noted. See you tomorrow!