Senators return to Washington this week feeling completely flummoxed by the turmoil in the House and with no clear idea of whether House Republicans will elect a Speaker anytime soon.
Republican senators have called on their House colleagues to unify behind a Speaker as quickly as possible, but that plea has fallen flat.
Instead, House conservatives immediately undermined House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) after he secured the House GOP conference’s nomination with 113 votes.
The House GOP on Friday selected the man initially defeated by Scalise, House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), as its new Speaker-designate. But dozens of Republicans say they’ll oppose his nomination on the floor, some of them embittered at the treatment of Scalise.
Senate aides and strategists say the leadership vacuum raises doubts about Congress’s ability to pass aid for Israel or Ukraine or to keep the government funded beyond Nov. 17.
And Senate Republicans fear the ongoing chaos in the House could hurt their chances of taking back the Senate and White House by raising questions about their ability to govern.
Vin Weber, a GOP strategist and former member of the House leadership, said Scalise’s inability to secure 218 votes to become Speaker after winning the nomination behind closed doors is “a real ominous sign for the conference.” In previous elections, once a majority of House Republicans backed a Speaker candidate, they would bring the nomination to the floor and generally back it.
“I definitely think this on the verge of really hurting Republicans’ reputation in terms of our ability to run the House of Representatives and to govern,” he said.
A Senate GOP aide said senators are rattled by the train wreck on the other side of the Capitol.
“They’re so glad they’re not in the House,” the source quipped.
“It’s not good. It’s not helpful,” the aide said. “Now more than ever, we all need to be strong and put on a united front for Israel and to protect our allies. The sooner the House can handle its business, the better for everybody.”
Congress’s consideration of spending bills has been put on hold until the House sorts out its leadership structure.
“I think Republican senators are horrified with what’s going on in the House, because the House leadership fight has ground all work to a halt. If you’re a senator in leadership, looking at the House leadership, you’re feeling pretty good about yourself right now, because the Senate doesn’t have anywhere near the same problems getting things done,” said Brian Darling, a GOP strategist and former Senate aide. “The House doesn’t have a functioning leadership right now.
“There’s no end in sight,” he added. “There’s just no endgame. How do you get out of this situation?”
Senate Democrats aren’t eager to take a bunch of politically tough votes on amendments to spending bills when they don’t have the faintest idea who will be leading the year-end spending negotiations for the House.
Senate Republican Whip John Thune (S.D.) helped clear the final Republican holds on a Senate-drafted minibus appropriations package before the recess, but the Senate is scheduled to vote on nominees instead when it reconvenes Monday.
GOP senators predicted before the recess that McCarthy’s ouster would be a blip, as long as House Republicans replaced him quickly. But the paralysis in the House threatens to last a while longer, putting the spotlight on deep divisions in their party.
Senators are usually loath to give their colleagues in the House political advice, knowing that House lawmakers don’t appreciate the upper chamber sticking its nose into their business.
But Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) emphasized before the Columbus Day recess that the House GOP needed to find a successor to McCarthy as soon as possible.
“We need to get a Speaker and hopefully we’ll get one by next week,” he told reporters Oct. 4.
More than 10 days later, the House doesn’t appear any closer to finding someone who can win the 218 votes needed on the floor.
Former President Trump threw a wrench into Scalise’s bid to become leader by questioning his fitness for the job while he undergoes treatment for blood cancer.
“Steve is a man that is in serious trouble from the standpoint of his cancer. I mean, he’s got to get better for himself. I’m not talking about even country now. I’m saying got to get better. And this is tremendous stress,” Trump told Fox News Radio.
Darling said Trump’s comments gave political cover for House lawmakers to oppose Scalise.
“That really hurt Scalise’s chances because it give cover to many of the opponents to Scalise to vote against him and to continue to oppose his Speakership,” he said.
McConnell warned after the 2022 midterm elections that Republican candidates underperformed among independents and among moderate Republicans because they “looked at us and concluded [there was] too much chaos, too much negativity.”
Weber said Republican senators know the infighting in the House could impact their odds of regaining the Senate majority.
“First of all, they’re glad they have Mitch McConnell and, second of all, they worry because they know the damage to the Republican Party’s reputation is not likely to be limited to the House of Representatives,” he said.
“It’s going to hurt the whole party, and that includes the Senate and their chances of taking back the majority, which ought to be excellent,” he said, alluding to the favorable electoral map in 2024, when Democrats will have to defend 23 Senate seats.
A CNN/SSRS poll published Thursday showed that the public’s views of the Republican Party and its congressional leaders have deteriorated since conservative rebels voted to fire McCarthy.
Only 26 percent of Americans, according to the poll, approve of the way Republican leaders in Congress are handling their jobs — a 6-point drop compared to January, when 32 percent of Americans said they approved of the way GOP leaders in Congress were doing their work.
The poll of 1,255 respondents, conducted from Oct. 4-9, found that 35 percent of the public approve of the way Democratic leaders in Congress are handling their jobs.