Democratic divisions on Israel and the Palestinians are growing deeper and more bitter as the death toll rises in Gaza and the Biden administration rejects calls for a cease-fire.
The combustible mix is powered by fundamental differences in views of the conflict, growing personal tensions, and the threat of censure motions and primary challenges.
National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters at a White House briefing Monday that a cease-fire would benefit only Hamas, which killed around 1,400 Israelis in a series of attacks on Oct. 7.
Israeli reprisals have killed around 8,300 Palestinians in Gaza, according to the Gaza Health Ministry.
The United Nations secretary-general and the European Union’s top diplomat are among those who have called for a cessation of hostilities. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Monday that calls for a cease-fire were tantamount to “calls for Israel to surrender to Hamas.”
The dire situation and the bloodshed of the past four weeks has caused far more internal strife for Democrats than among Republicans.
The GOP holds a more straightforwardly pro-Israel position, while Democrats split across ideological, generational and, to some degree, racial lines.
Now, the stakes are literally life and death.
“A child is being killed once every 10 minutes” in Gaza, Usamah Andrabi, the communications director for progressive group Justice Democrats, told this column. “If we let the White House continue to excuse that as Israeli ‘defense,’ then we are very actively choosing to let the White House value the lives of innocent Israelis over the lives of innocent Palestinians.”
But, whereas Andrabi contends that many Democratic voters see the issue this way, Mark Mellman argued that the dissenters were in a small minority.
Mellman, the president of Democratic Majority for Israel — a group he said was founded “to ensure that the Democratic Party remains true to its long and proud pro-Israel position” — contended that “basically over 90 percent of the Democratic caucus is strongly pro-Israel and a very small number are not.”
Mellman acknowledged some long-term “slippage” in the views of Democratic voters pertaining to Israel but contended that “today, the support for Israel among Democrats is extremely strong.”
President Biden journeyed to Israel soon after the attacks and expressed emphatic U.S. support. He has held to that position even as Israel has strafed Gaza with airstrikes and begun a ground invasion.
Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), the chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, told NBC’s “Meet the Press” Sunday that Biden needed to be “careful.” The American people, Jayapal said, support Israel’s right to defend itself and to exist “but they do not support a war crime exchanged for another war crime.”
In a separate interview with CNN’s Manu Raju, Jayapal warned that the conflict was “hurting” both Biden and the Democratic Party, and she compared the divisions over the issue with those that roiled the party during the Iraq War.
The fault lines have taken on an angry and personal edge as well.
Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) last week called the nine House Democrats who voted against a resolution in support of Israel “despicable.” One of the nine, Rep. André Carson (D-Ind.), hit back that Gottheimer was a “coward.”
The general reasoning offered by the nine Democratic dissenters was that the resolution failed to either call for a cease-fire, suggest Israel bears responsibility for Palestinian deaths, or imply any limits to support for Israel’s actions.
A few days prior to that, Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) had criticized Rep. Richie Torres (D-N.Y.) for his vigorous support for Israel, asking rhetorically, “How many more Palestinians would make you happy if they die?”
There is no end in sight to those fissures.
Republicans will seek to censure Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) this week for alleged “antisemitic activity,” a charge that Tlaib vigorously denies.
“There should be a universal statement from Democratic leadership condemning that resolution and demanding every Democratic member of Congress oppose it,” Andrabi said.
House Republicans are also in the process of pushing an aid package for Israel alone — rather than for Israel, Ukraine and other causes, as Biden prefers — which could further fuel Democratic divisions.
Meanwhile, Democrats identified with a relatively pro-Palestinian stance, including Reps. Tlaib, Omar, Cori Bush (D-Mo.) and Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.), are either certain or likely to face primary challenges.
Mellman noted that his organization has a related political action committee with the purpose “to elect pro-Israel Democrats and defeat anti-Israel Democrats.”
Some of the divisions on Israel and the Palestinians are of long standing. Gallup polling, for example, shows a shift among Democratic voters toward greater sympathy with the Palestinian cause over two decades.
Earlier this year, Gallup found 49 percent of Democrats had more sympathy with the Palestinians than the Israelis, while 38 percent said they had more sympathy with the Israelis.
Back in 2001, Democrats were far more likely to say their sympathies lie with Israel, by 51 percent to 16 percent.
A generational change is at least part of that shift.
In broad strokes, older Democrats of Biden’s generation tend to see Israel as the underdog, encircled by hostile nations and under constant existential threat.
Younger, more left-wing Democrats tend, by contrast, to see Israel as the regional superpower, underwritten by the power of the United States. They focus their critiques on Israel’s long occupation of the West Bank and its expansions of settlements there, both in defiance of international law. The left also highlights condemnations from international human rights organizations of Israel’s treatment of the Palestinians.
The generational split is on clear display even among the overall population. In an Economist/YouGov poll released last week, Americans under 30 were the only age group where a plurality expressed more sympathy for the Palestinians (28 percent) than for the Israelis (20 percent).
By contrast, Americans 65 and older were overwhelmingly more likely to sympathize with the Israelis (65 percent) than the Palestinians (6 percent).
The split seems only likely to get even more clear-cut. Many Democrats continue to stand foursquare behind Israel’s actions, a position that is anathema to many on the left — and to many Arab American voters.
“Arab American voters see President Biden views their lives as unequal to Israeli lives,” Andrabi warned.
The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.