Senate GOP leadership fight may pivot on who fundraises the best

Republican senators say the race to replace Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) could be decided by fundraising prowess, citing the more than $1.6 billion he helped raise through two outside groups for Senate Republican candidates since 2015.

GOP senators say the fundraising “factor” could give an advantage to Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R) in his race against Senate Republican Whip John Thune (S.D.) for the top job.

With Election Day rapidly approaching, many Republican senators are focusing on the fundraising responsibilities of the top GOP leadership job, something McConnell has mastered since becoming leader in 2007.

While Cornyn and Thune have both raised millions of dollars over the years and given generously to colleagues, Cornyn comes from one of the biggest Republican fundraising hubs in the country.

He has given away significantly more money to GOP candidates than Thune over the past decade.

“It will be a factor, but I think John Thune has also done a lot over the years with the [National Republican Senatorial Committee],” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said of Cornyn’s advantage as the bigger fundraiser.

Asked who the front-runner in the race is, Tillis acknowledged “it’s hard to say right now,” reflecting the view of many GOP senators that the leadership race will be very close.  

Cornyn has raised more than $14 million for Republican incumbents, the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) and Senate Republican nominees to date in the 2024 election cycle, according to a source familiar with Cornyn’s political operation.

The Texas senator has been the top Senate Republican fundraiser aside from McConnell since 2009 and formed a joint fundraising committee, the Cornyn Victory Committee, in 2021 to help Republicans directly.

Cornyn raised $20 million for Senate Republican incumbents and candidates in the last election cycle, more than any other Republican senator except for McConnell and then-NRSC Chair Rick Scott (Fla.).

One Republican senator who has received hundreds of thousands of dollars from Cornyn’s joint fundraising committee said that will be an important factor in the leadership race.

“Obviously as the leader, fundraising is important,” the senator said, adding it’s one of several critical factors in the race.

“I think it’s extremely important,” the senator added. “Cornyn has shown he understands the importance of having a network set up, and he comes from a big state.”

Cornyn developed his national donor network by chairing the Senate Republican’s campaign fundraising committee from 2009-13.

The senator said the ability of the next leader to go on the Sunday morning talk shows and other national news programs to get the Senate Republican message out to voters is also important.

Cornyn, who has easy access to a television studio in Austin, has appeared recently on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” CNN’s “State of the Union” and CBS’s “Face the Nation.”

The Cornyn Victory Committee has transferred $2.48 million to the NRSC, $668,000 to Senate Republican Conference Chair John Barrasso (Wyo.), $417,000 to Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.), $417,000 to Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), $413,000 to Scott, $397,000 to Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.), $394,000 to Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), $386,000 to Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) and $352,000 to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) in this election cycle through Dec. 31, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, a nonpartisan group that tracks fundraising.

Senate Republicans say Thune has the advantage of now occupying the No. 2-ranking position in the Senate GOP leadership, which puts him in charge of running floor operations for Senate GOP colleagues.

Thune, 63, is also about nine years younger than Cornyn, who is 72.

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) said it’s “important you that have a leader who has the ability to go out and raise money to help members get reelected.”

“Some of that comes from the fact that you’re in that position, and some of it comes from the fact that it’s something you’re good at and enjoy doing,” he said.

Rubio, however, said he views both Cornyn and Thune as capable fundraisers and that campaign finance considerations won’t solely determine how he votes.  

Republican senators say Thune has stepped up his fundraising for colleagues since McConnell suffered a concussion and fractured rib in a fall at the Waldorf Astoria in Washington, D.C., a year ago.

That accident kept McConnell away from the Capitol for weeks and raised the prospect he might retire from leadership sooner than GOP senators expected when they reelected him leader with a 37-10 vote in November 2022.  

McConnell, who is 82, announced last month that he would step down from the Senate Republican leadership at the end of this year.

Thune has raised $8 million for the NRSC this election cycle, more than any senator other than NRSC Chair Steve Daines (Mont.).

And the South Dakota senator has raised $3.5 million directly for candidates through his joint fundraising committee — 2024 Republican Senate Victory  —  spending significant time with candidates at events.

He filed the statement of organization setting up the new joint fundraising committee on April 10, a month after McConnell tripped and fell at a private dinner.

That accident sent McConnell to the hospital and then a rehab facility for weeks, sparking frenzied speculation about how much longer he would be able to hold the top job.

Thune has joined or plans to join 23 Senate Republican colleagues at fundraising events outside Washington this election cycle and has attended or has plans to attend events with 37 Senate GOP incumbents and candidates in D.C.

He has also headlined more than 50 events for Senate GOP incumbents and candidates this cycle. And he is sitting on more than $17 million in his Senate campaign account.

A source familiar with Thune’s fundraising operation remarked that some people might be surprised Thune has managed to raise so much money, given he comes from a small state with many fewer high-dollar donors compared to Texas.

Some Republican senators who support Thune’s bid predict he’ll be able to cultivate relationships with donors across the country and dramatically expand his fundraising operation if elected Senate GOP leader.

“John Cornyn is a great member, and he was a very good whip,” said Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), who is backing Thune. “Whoever becomes the next leader will inherit the title and also the responsibility for a lot of fundraising, and I think John Thune can more than match anyone in the Senate on that.”

Rounds said he disagrees with colleagues who view Cornyn as the stronger fundraiser.

“Once you become the leader, your ability to fundraise goes way, way up,” he said. “The role you play has as much to do as the personality involved.”  

Senate Republicans meanwhile are wrestling over what to do with McConnell’s powerful fundraising network after he relinquishes the powerful perch he has held over the past 17 years.

GOP senators are wondering whether the next Senate Republican leader — be it Cornyn or Thune — should take over affiliation to Senate Leadership Fund and One Nation, the two outside fundraising groups now aligned with McConnell. They have funneled hundreds of millions of dollars into Senate races over the past nine years.

Another possibility is the next Senate Republican leader would build out his own fundraising network on top of what he has already developed.

Steven Law, McConnell’s former chief of staff and president and CEO of the Senate Leadership Fund, said he’s not thinking about who takes over McConnell’s fundraising operation.

“Our team is busy working to win back the Senate majority. That’s our sole focus through November,” he said.

Law last week praised McConnell’s “historic legacy” of “fighting to elect and re-elect dozens of Republican senators who have transformed the federal judiciary.”

He reported that Senate Leadership Fund and One Nation have raised $1.66 billion since being launched in 2015.

Updated at 9:12 a.m. ET