Democrats are facing looming challenges as they plot their next legislative step, threatening to cut short a victory lap over the coronavirus relief bill.
The days-long debate on the $1.9 trillion package provided the first glimpse of battle lines in the Biden era and the 50-50 Senate, where Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) will need to spend the next two years trying to make good on big promises with the slimmest of majorities.
But it also underscored the chaotic nature of a narrowly divided Senate, where any one Democrat can have an outsize influence and Republicans, who unified against the relief bill, are still needed to pass most bills, for now.
“In a 50-50 Senate, if any one member changes their mind on an amendment or vote or issue, it can change the outcome,” said Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.).
That point was driven home Friday during a nearly 12-hour pause that put an uncomfortable spotlight on Democrats’ internal scramble that tested Schumer’s ability to get Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) back on board by making changes without losing progressives like Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.).
Schumer spent four years as minority leader, keeping his caucus united against ObamaCare repeal efforts and the 2017 GOP tax bill. But the relief package was his first big legislative test as majority leader, and a preview of the competing factions within the caucus.
“It’s important that he be able to hold us together as a caucus. Even with, you know, all night, many votes, that sort of thing,” Coons said.
Democrats weren’t the only ones keeping a close eye on how the coronavirus fight played out, trying to read the tea leaves on what to expect from Schumer and President Biden with other legislative fights on the horizon.
“We learned a lot too about dealing with their side and some of the members on their side who suggested they might be inclined to be with us on some things,” said Sen. John Thune (R-S.D). “I think it’s indicative of what we’ll be looking at in the future.”
Thune — noting that Republicans were in talks with Manchin, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) and others — added that narrowly divided Senates are difficult because “every man is a king and every woman is a queen.”
Democrats were helped by a unified belief within the caucus, as well as broad support from the American public, that more aid was needed to combat the coronavirus.
Schumer has been publicly wary of repeating what he views as the party’s mistake in going too small with stimulus during the Great Recession, pledging early on that while Democrats wanted to get GOP support this time around they weren’t going to water down the bill to win over Republicans.
“I feel good about the long-range here. I feel good about moving on to new victories,” Schumer told reporters, adding that the “secret to the success” was “every person realizing that we needed every other person to have this victory.”
But that pledge for unity will soon encounter immediate tests, with the 60-vote legislative filibuster still intact and infrastructure, the next big priority for Democrats, already sparking signs of divisions.
Manchin is signaling he’s wary of using reconciliation — the budget process that lets the majority party bypass the Senate filibuster — to pass an infrastructure and climate package without making a concerted effort to involve Republicans.
“We want to work in a normal process, a regular process, to where we basically can have input. We can hear from our friends on the other side. At the end of the day you might not agree on the final product, but if you had a little bit of input on the ingredients, it makes it more palatable for somebody,” Manchin told reporters.
“Well, I’m not for reconciliation. … I’m not saying that won’t be what might be needed at the end to get something done,” he added.
Rank-and-file senators are already talking across the aisle about areas of agreement that might be able to garner bipartisan support and more than 60 votes.
Coons said senators were discussing a “whole series of issues that … require bipartisan legislation, whether it’s immigration or infrastructure or now raising the minimum wage.”
A bipartisan group, led by Manchin and Susan Collins (R-Maine), has started brainstorming areas where they think they could be helpful in breaking the gridlock between Schumer and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). The same group helped unlock a months-long stalemate late last year on a $900 billion coronavirus bill.
“We’re not the tail wagging the dog trying to run the place. OK, we’re basically saying that we’re gonna hit some rough spots. And if they can’t get to where our leadership — McConnell and Schumer — can work together … then basically we can help break the logjam,” Manchin said.
Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) added the group was talking about what their “agenda” could be going forward.
“[We] talked about everything from family policy to minimum wage, immigration … infrastructure,” Romney said.
But it’s unclear how much appetite there will be from Democrats to try to reduce some of the big promises Biden and congressional Democratic leadership made during the 2020 campaign. The talk of bipartisanship comes as there’s growing support within the caucus for reforming the filibuster to make it harder for Republicans to block legislation on top Democratic priorities.
Schumer defended his strategy of going it alone on coronavirus relief, arguing that parts of the package incorporated bipartisan bills and the legislation overall was broadly supported by Republicans. He added that the Democrats’ strategy could help convince Republicans early on to work with them or be left behind.
“Hopefully now that they’ve seen we can do it without them,” he said, “they’ll join us and do it with us.”