Senate GOP looks to Wisconsin to set 2024 candidate map in stone

Senate Republicans are expecting the final piece to their 2024 puzzle to fall into place in short order, as they ready themselves for a November fight against Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) in the key battleground state of Wisconsin.

Eric Hovde, a Madison-based businessman, is expected to enter the race next month with the full support of the Senate GOP campaign apparatus, as it tries for a third time to defeat Baldwin, who has proven a difficult out for Republicans. Multiple sources indicated he will launch his bid in February, with one source familiar saying that it is expected between the Super Bowl and the end of the month, as he has been hiring staff and gearing up for a run.

Hovde would far and wide be the leading contender to take on Baldwin due in part to his financial prowess. The source indicated he is prepared to spend eight figures on his campaign, with a second source familiar with Hovde indicating upward of $20 million or more could be possible. 

This would be Hovde’s second Senate bid after he narrowly lost the 2012 GOP nod to former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson (R), who eventually fell to Baldwin. 

Top Republicans are more than ready for Hovde to officially take the plunge. 

“Wisconsin is going to be one of the top states. It’s a battleground for the presidential race. It’ll be a battleground state for the Senate. Eric Hovde … would be a great candidate,” Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, told The Hill, highlighting the close loss to Thompson, who is considered political royalty in the state. 

“He’s been involved in a big campaign before, and it looks like he’s doing a really good job of preparing for the battle,” he continued. “That race is going to be really competitive.”

Hovde’s expected run stands out among those on the GOP side who are challenging Democratic incumbents because of its late start, but that’s by no means due to indecision. The second source said that while announcing this late is atypical, Hovde has been laying the pavement for the operation for months.

“You can announce late. You can’t organize late. He organized early,” the source said. “He’s able to come in later and shorten the campaign and the time Democrats are able to attack him.”

According to the first source familiar, part of the thinking is also that Republican voters are paying more attention to the early presidential primaries and aren’t nearly as consumed with down-ballot contests as of yet.

“Are people really tuned in right now?” the source said. “It’s going to be an expensive race, so why not spend money when people are tuned in.”

Republicans are clear-eyed that Baldwin will be difficult to topple, just as she has been in each of her other Senate runs. She is known for being well-funded, having raised $31 million for her 2018 campaign overall. Most recently, her campaign announced she raised $3 million during the final three months of 2023 and, as of the end of September, she had nearly $6.9 million in the bank. 

She also has wind in her sails in the form of incumbency, which Democrats are hoping will help get them across the finish line in a number of other contests in battleground states. Wisconsin incumbents on both sides of the aisle have a strong track record in recent years of winning reelection, save for Gov. Scott Walker (R) in 2018 and former Sen. Russ Feingold’s (D) loss to Sen. Ron Johnson (R) in 2010.  

“She is tenacious,” said Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), who led the Senate Democratic campaign arm during the 2018 cycle when Baldwin last won. “The people of Wisconsin understand that Tammy Baldwin is there for them. They don’t have to agree with her on every issue, but they know she is committed to delivering for people in Wisconsin.”

While Hovde’s pending bid makes him the likely GOP nominee, he isn’t out of the woods in his own party. Scott Mayer, another businessman, said he would make his mind up on a bid early this year, as well, while former Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke has flirted with a bid of his own. 

The idea, though, of Hovde having a relatively clear field ahead is something Republicans see as being of the utmost importance, especially against someone of Baldwin’s stature. The incumbent Democrat has won both of her races against GOP nominees who emerged from bruising primary battle, with the majority party still hoping Hovde will face some sort of opposition in the coming months. 

“We’ll see how that develops,” said Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair. “Tammy Baldwin’s a real strong candidate. She’s doing everything that she needs to do, including representing the people of Wisconsin in a very powerful way.”

“We’re confident we’re going to win, and we’ll wait to see how the Republican field develops,” he continued. “There might be more than one candidate.”

Despite the hopes and dreams in Wisconsin, national Republicans still see the Senate map similarly: Any win beyond those in their top two priorities — Montana and Ohio — would be gravy and would also come after a significant expansion of the Senate map. 

One GOP operative said outside groups will likely monitor the state over the summer to determine whether to play ball there in the fall and that the race will be jockeying with others such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona and Nevada for those dollars.  

Republicans also believe former President Trump’s presence on the ballot could be a boost for Hovde or the eventual party nominee in the Badger State. Trump famously won the state by less than a percentage point in 2016, before losing there four years later to President Biden by a similar margin, and they expect another close race this year. 

“It’s on a knife’s edge,” a second GOP operative said.