Arizona voters split on Trump charges: Poll

Arizona voters, particularly Republicans, are split over whether to support the criminal cases against former President Trump, a new survey found.

Trump, the GOP front-runner, is facing a web of legal troubles set to play out in courtrooms throughout the campaign leading up to November’s election. He faces four indictments and has pled not guilty to all 91 criminal charges.

According to a recent survey by Noble Predictive Insights (NPI), nearly all Arizona voters are aware Trump is on trial, but voters are split about how to view the legal proceedings.

Among all voters, 30 percent believe the former president is innocent and the charges are politically motivated, while 35 percent say he is guilty and should be prosecuted. Thirty-four percent say they are waiting for the courts to reach a conclusion.

Among Republicans, 56 percent say he is innocent, compared to 11 percent who think he is guilty. Among Democrats, only 6 percent believe Trump is innocent and 65 percent say he is guilty.

Most of the split among the GOP comes from voters who are more moderate and are “party-first Republicans,” who identify more with the party than support Trump.

Forty percent of moderate Republicans and 41 percent of party-first Republicans are deferring their opinion about Trump’s cases to the court process, while slightly more say he is innocent, the survey found.

Even though voters are split about whether to believe the charges against Trump, 54 percent say he should not be eligible to run for president or another federal office if he is found guilty.

NPI Chief of Research David Byler said some Republicans who say Trump should be ineligible if convicted believe he won’t be convicted.

Trump has argued he should be immune from prosecution for alleged crimes committed while he was president, a claim now before the Supreme Court. Seventy-two percent of the Arizona respondents say presidents should not be immune from prosecution.

“This is a tough issue for Republicans: Democrats are fairly united, and the GOP is fairly split,” Byler said. “If Trump is found guilty, this could be a great wedge issue for Democrats in the fall.”

According to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ polling average, Trump leads President Biden by 3.7 points in a hypothetical rematch in Arizona, which was a key swing state that voted for Biden in 2020.

Arizona also has a highly anticipated Senate race this year. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and Trump-backed Kari Lake, who lost the 2022 governor’s race, are the leading candidates for Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s (I-Ariz.) seat.

The NPI survey was conducted Feb. 6-13 among 1,002 Arizona voters and has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.