White House trade adviser Peter Navarro on Sunday predicted that a combination of domestic and international economic factors would drive a strong U.S. economy through 2020.
“Before I came to the White House, I spent the better part of 20 years forecasting business cycle and stock market trends and what I can tell you with certainty is that we’re going to have a strong economy through 2020 and beyond with a bull market, and here’s why: things are shaping up well,” Navarro said on ABC’s “This Week.”
Though his interview followed a week of increasing fears of a recession and a jittery stock market, Navarro cited four factors he said contribute to his economic outlook.
He said the Federal Reserve would be lowering rates going into the holidays, which will directly help investment and indirectly benefit exports. The European Central Bank (ECB) has signaled an upcoming aggressive round of monetary easing, he said, which will help revive Europe’s economy and help build export demand.
Navarro also said he thinks China will have another round of fiscal stimulus, helping the world economy by helping developing countries that sell commodities to China. And he said passage of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA), known as NAFTA 2.0, will provide “thousands of more jobs, more growth points.”
Host Martha Raddatz questioned Navarro’s certainty, saying his theory seemed to rest of “a lot of ifs.”
“Well, the Fed will be lowering rates,” Navarro responded. “The ECB will be engaging in monetary stimulus. China will be engaging in fiscal stimulus. You’re absolutely right, there is an ‘if’ associated with the USMCA.”
Navarro reiterated his claims on CBS’s “Face the Nation,” saying, “What I’m seeing when I look at all the macro tea leaves is a very strong Trump economy.”
Echoing President Trump’s claims, Navarro blamed any economic turmoil on the Federal Reserve “rais[ing] rates far too fast.”
–Zack Budryk contributed to this report, which was updated at 11:05 a.m.