The Memo: GOP to win Kavanaugh fight but Dems vow midterm revenge

Brett Kavanaugh is set to be confirmed to the Supreme Court on Saturday, notching a big victory for President Trump and the Republican Party — but one that carries sizable complications.

Democrats believe their voters are now more fired up than ever to deliver a rebuke to the GOP in the November midterm elections.

They vow that women’s anger at the judge’s near-certain confirmation, despite allegations of sexual assault and misconduct against him, will be a potent electoral force.

{mosads}“What I have seen is anger and outrage from women in a way that I’ve never seen before,” said Karine Jean-Pierre, senior adviser and national spokeswoman for MoveOn, a progressive group. “I don’t think Republicans realize what they have unleashed.”

One national women’s group, UltraViolet Action, issued a stark two-sentence statement Friday from co-founder Shaunna Thomas.

“This doesn’t end tomorrow. It ends in November,” Thomas said.

Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), widely predicted to become a 2020 presidential candidate, made a broader argument that the GOP had disrespected women by backing Kavanaugh.

“To all survivors of sexual assault: We hear you. We see you. We will give you dignity. Don’t let this process bully you into silence,” Harris tweeted as the Kavanaugh drama neared its peak on Friday afternoon in the Senate.

Some Republicans had expressed concern earlier this week when Trump mocked Kavanaugh’s most prominent accuser, Christine Blasey Ford, during a rally in Mississippi. They worried that the president’s rhetoric seemed likely to cause deeper erosion of support for the GOP among suburban women in particular — a demographic that is already skeptical of the president.

An NPR/PBS/Marist poll conducted in late September showed Trump’s job approval rating to be very negative among college-educated white women. Fifty-seven percent within that group disapproved of Trump’s job performance, whereas only 38 percent approved.

At that time, GOP strategist Liz Mair told The Hill: “The party is already in trouble with suburban women. I just have a sneaking suspicion that the Republicans will find a way to mess this up. We are already in trouble with a group of voters we need to not totally hate us.”

But by Friday such concerns seemed to have been supplanted by satisfaction about getting Kavanaugh to the finish line.

Republicans believe they will be rewarded by conservative voters who might not have gone to the polls had GOP senators proved unable to confirm Kavanaugh, who’s spent the past 12 years as a judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit. Many social conservatives voted for Trump with a degree of ambivalence in 2016, given his colorful personal life, but did so in the hope that he would tilt the Supreme Court in their favor. 

Kavanaugh’s confirmation would give the nine-member high court a solid 5-4 conservative majority.

“At the moment it appears that Republican voters, Trump voters, have re-engaged and are heading to the polls,” said GOP pollster John McLaughlin on Friday.

Had Kavanaugh plunged to defeat, McLaughlin asserted, “you would have a lot of angry Trump voters who would blame the Republicans and not show up” for the Nov. 6 midterms.

The Kavanaugh drama came to a head on Friday afternoon when Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), who had not previously declared her position, announced she would support him. 

Moments after her announcement, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) became the only Democrat to cross party lines to back the judge. Manchin is seeking reelection this year in a state that Trump carried by 42 points in 2016 over Hillary Clinton.

The liberal dismay about those decisions was immediately evident on social media and elsewhere.

Susan Rice, who served as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations during former President Obama’s administration, suggested she would be willing to challenge Collins when she comes up for reelection in 2020. It was not clear if Rice was being serious.

Democracy for America, a progressive group, announced that it would work with “anyone we can to finish the job” of defeating Collins.

In a parallel development, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) suggested she would consider challenging Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), who voted against Kavanaugh in a procedural vote Friday morning. 

“Hey @LisaMurkowski – I can see 2022 from my house…,” Palin tweeted, referring to the year when Murkowski is up for reelection.

Beyond that, the sheer bitterness of the battle over Kavanaugh is striking to all sides.

“The starting gun for the 2020 election was fired with this confirmation fight,” said Ron Bonjean, a Republican who served as a communications strategist in the battle to confirm Trump’s first Supreme Court nominee, Neil Gorsuch, in 2017.

“This rollercoaster nomination has bonded both parties together in a way,” Bonjean added, “because of the intensity of it, how close this vote was and the unfair tactics both sides claimed the other party utilized.”

The president seemed to begin a victory lap on Friday. “Very proud of the U.S. Senate for voting ‘YES’ to advance the nomination of Judge Brett Kavanaugh!” he tweeted.

Democrats are hoping that air of celebration will be short-lived.

The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage, primarily focused on Donald Trump’s presidency.