The Memo: COVID-19 spike raises stakes for Biden, GOP

A sharp rise in COVID-19 infections is threatening to upend the political dynamics around the nation’s most pressing issue.

Responses to the pandemic have broken along stark partisan lines so far.

But as the delta variant begins to surge, some Democrats think there could be a backlash against those on the right who have fueled skepticism about vaccines.

Democrats like Rep. Brendan Boyle (Pa.) argue that voices on the right have imperiled public health — and that there could be political consequences.

“This morning, I was literally thinking for the first time that it’s pretty clear the Republican brand, or part of it, is now ‘anti-vaccine,’” Boyle told this column on Wednesday.

The congressman, who represents a district in and around Philadelphia, noted that then-President Trump’s loss in last fall’s election was driven in large part by erosion of support among well-educated, suburban voters.

“Being the party that is known as being anti-vaccine and anti-vaccination is not going to help them win back those voters they lost in the suburbs,” Boyle added.

To be sure, there are Republicans, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) — a survivor of childhood polio — who have strongly encouraged people to get vaccinated. Even Fox News’s Sean Hannity has done so.

But those voices have been drowned out by shriller and more sensational comments from the likes of Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) and Hannity’s Fox News colleague Tucker Carlson.

A decision by GOP-dominated Tennessee to end all vaccine outreach to teens and to fire the state’s top vaccine official attracted national media attention this week.

Conservatives have taken particular exception to the Biden administration’s initiative to send people door-to-door urging eligible people to get vaccinated.

Even though this initiative does not include vaccinations then and there, Boebert told the recent Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) that her message to the government in its vaccination efforts was “don’t come knocking on my door” with “your Fauci-ouchie.”

Anthony Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious diseases expert, later told CNN that hearing the crowd at the CPAC event cheering against vaccines was “horrifying.”

Carlson has referred to the door-to-door efforts as part of “the greatest scandal in my lifetime, by far.”

Around 99 percent of COVID-19 deaths in recent weeks have been among people who are unvaccinated. Academic experts say that grim statistic might have some effect on attitudes — but they aren’t so sure it will shake people out of their political trenches.

Jonathan Samet, an epidemiologist and the dean of the Colorado School of Public Health, said he has been “surprised” throughout the pandemic by the degree to which reactions to it have been polarized.

“Having seen the end of smallpox, the eradication of polio in the United States and major advances through vaccination, I am shocked [at the degree of polarization] with a pandemic that has changed our lives and devastated so many.”

Michael Bitzer, a professor of politics and history at North Carolina’s Catawba College who has written about the divergent vaccination rates across the Tar Heel State, noted that “some stories are showing that the unvaccinated who have become ill are having a change of heart — but whether that has a political dynamic, against one party or for another, is hard to say. We are in such polarized times.”

Bitzer added that he did not envision a political realignment over COVID-19 “unless the hospitalizations and death rates start to climb significantly — and even in that circumstance, I think there is still going to be the partisan political dynamic to it.”

Hospitalizations and deaths are on the rise, but not as steeply as new infections. This is almost certainly because there has been considerable progress made on fully vaccinating elderly Americans, who are at the gravest risk of death from the virus.

But that hardly means the country is out of the woods yet.

Samet called the current situation “very serious” because it was almost impossible to get the virus “quenched” when so many people remain unvaccinated. Social networks in which a significant number of people had not got their shots give the vaccine fresh opportunity to spread, he warned.

It is also plausible that President Biden’s approval numbers on COVID-19 will dip if cases continue to rise. Biden scores higher approval ratings on his COVID-19 response than on any other issue. But he now faces a tougher climb, trying to overcome resistance to vaccinations.

Most Americans who want the vaccine can get it. But the administration failed to meet its goal of getting 70 percent of adults vaccinated by Independence Day.

Pop musician Olivia Rodrigo went to the White House Wednesday, where she expressed support for vaccines from the briefing room podium.

Rodrigo is understood to also have filmed pro-vaccination videos.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki emphasized the importance of getting a pro-vaccination message out to young people and the imperative to “reach people, meet people where they are.”

Biden got some good news Wednesday in a Politico-Morning Consult poll that showed the door-to-door initiative to be broadly popular, despite the obloquy it receives from some conservatives.

The poll indicated that 54 percent of registered voters are in favor of the effort and 39 percent against. Among people who voted for Trump in November, however, 69 percent were opposed and just 25 percent in favor.

Those figures draw sadness even from political partisans like Boyle, the Democratic congressman.

“Fifty years from now, a hundred years from now, people will look back and have a very difficult time understanding why so many people didn’t get vaccinated,” he said. “Given the stakes in play, given all the risks associated with COVID, it will be very difficult for future generations to understand how this happened.”

The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.