The Biden administration is in talks with Venezuela to exchange sanctions relief for a free election in the South American country, according to a report by Bloomberg.
Venezuela is preparing for a presidential election in 2024 amid concerns that the vote will be a repeat of 2020, a parliamentary election marred by low participation and an aggressively uneven playing field.
According to the Bloomberg report, high-ranking officials in the Biden administration and in President Nicolás Maduro’s orbit, including Venezuelan National Assembly President Jorge Rodríguez, are involved in the talks.
In June, Rodríguez held a meeting in Qatar with Juan González, the National Security Council’s top Western Hemisphere official, reportedly to build channels of communication between the two governments.
The White House did not confirm the sanctions-for-elections talks, but administration officials said sanctions relief remains a possibility, though the ball is entirely in Maduro’s court.
“The United States continues to work to support the restoration of democracy and the rule of law in Venezuela. And as we have been clear, should Venezuela take concrete actions toward restoring democracy, leading to free and fair elections, we are prepared to provide corresponding sanctions relief,” a National Security Council spokesperson told The Hill.
“At this time, Venezuela has not taken the necessary steps, and our sanctions remain in effect.”
Michael McCarthy, a professor at George Washington University’s Elliott School for International Affairs, said outside factors such as oil prices, U.S. detainees in Venezuela and pressure from Congress could incentivize the Biden administration to negotiate.
“There’s a sense that both sides need to make concessions. The key is always about what happens after those initial gestures are made in order to keep people to the word,” McCarthy said.
Since taking power in 2013, Maduro has continued former Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez’s agenda of reforming the country’s democratic institutions to cement the ruling party’s hold on power.
He last won reelection in 2018, in an election boycotted by the opposition.
For the 2024 cycle, Maduro has threatened to hold elections earlier than planned, giving the opposition less time to prepare.
Venezuela’s opposition has been famously divided since Chávez took power in 1998, essentially leaving the ruling socialist party to rule uncontested.
For 2024, the opposition agreed on an Oct. 22 primary election to pick a unity candidate.
That cycle prompted the rise of opposition candidate María Corina Machado, a former lawmaker whose presidential bid has gained traction at home and abroad.
“Her candidacy changed the game, there’s no doubt,” McCarthy said.
Venezuelan officials have preempted opposition candidates who show political momentum, disqualifying ones such as Machado and longtime opposition leader Henrique Capriles from participating in the upcoming election.
Maduro has used the tactic before, including in 2017 against Capriles.
The seemingly arbitrary disqualifications have drawn criticism from many in the international community, including Maduro’s friendly neighbor, Colombian President Gustavo Petro.
But Maduro is unlikely to feel real pressure or incentives unless they come from the United States.
“This is a bilateral situation. It’s more about that than it is about the pressure from the Latin American left,” McCarthy said.
“A lot’s on the line for Biden, considering the amount that they’ve invested in this policy pivot attempt regarding sanctions relief for better electoral conditions.”