Happy first-in-the-nation primary day! Former President Trump is hoping to drive his only remaining GOP rival Nikki Haley out of the primary today, but her campaign is signaling it doesn’t plan to go away anytime soon.
Temperatures are in the mid-30s in Bedford, N.H., today, which is pretty mild for New England winters. Weather can really affect turnout, but today’s weather shouldn’t be much of a factor. Light snow is predicted for tonight.
How to follow along today: Here’s The Hill’s live blog of tidbits and updates throughout primary day.
When do the polls close?: Most polls close at 7 p.m., but polls in a few towns close at 8 p.m.
What I’m watching today: Could Haley pull off an upset and defeat Trump? Nearly every poll shows Trump with a significant lead, so it’s unlikely, but it depends how many independents vote in the GOP primary. Because of the drama within the Democratic Party, President Biden isn’t even competing in the state, so independent voters who want their vote to count may opt for the Republican contest.
How strong is independent turnout?: I’ve been talking to New Hampshire voters at Haley events, and I’m struck by just how many Democrats and independents I’ve run into. That voting bloc seems to very much dislike Trump and wants to put their efforts into pushing him off the podium. Because independent and undeclared voters can participate in the GOP primary, I’m watching to see how strong that boost will be for Haley. New Hampshire has had a history of upsets.
The Washington Post: ‘Can Haley be like Ike? New Hampshire’s primacy began with 1952 upsets.’
And even if Trump wins, the margins matter: If Trump wins by double digits — paired with Iowa’s eye-catching 30-point victory — Haley’s path to the nomination seems nearly impossible. But if Haley can come in a close second, it could continue to fuel her Trump challenge. South Carolina is the next major contest, and she is the former governor of the state.
The latest polling: Trump has a 13.8 percent lead in New Hampshire, according to The Hill and Decision Desk HQ’s polling average. 📊 The polls included in the average
What happens to DeSantis’s supporters?: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s (R) abrupt exit shook up the final two days of the campaign entering New Hampshire. He endorsed Trump, which will likely give the former president a boost. He was polling at roughly 5 percent in the state before he dropped out, so that could give Trump a bump. But former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s (R) supporters will likely give Haley a boost.
Oh, yeah. There’s a Democratic primary: President Biden backed national Democrats’ efforts to switch up the early contests, so he’s not even on New Hampshire’s ballot. Some of his supporters are leading a write-in campaign. Democratic presidential candidate Rep. Dean Phillips (Minn.) is on the ballot and is running a long-shot campaign. I’m interested to see those results.
NBC News: ‘What counts as a win for Biden in New Hampshire’s unprecedented primary?’
The Atlantic: ‘Can Biden Win a Primary He Ignored?’
Tidbit — Ah, Dixville Notch: Haley won all six votes in the tiny town of Dixville Notch, N.H., whose residents always vote at midnight. It doesn’t necessarily mean much, but Haley touted the win. “Look at the first six votes in Dixville Notch. Do you think if this was a done deal, we would have gotten any of them?” Haley said in an interview with “New Hampshire Today with Chris Ryan.”
