While Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has moved deftly to avoid a shutdown since taking the gavel in October, restive conservatives are losing patience with his willingness to cut budget deals across the aisle.

And some observers on Capitol Hill are already warning that the current fight is the greatest shutdown threat of this Congress.

Party leaders in both chambers have sought to assure the public — and the markets — that the sides will come together to adopt appropriations bills and avoid disruptions to government operations. 

But a number of disagreements remain between the parties. And Johnson is facing additional pressures from within his own Republican conference, where conservatives are demanding right-wing policy riders that are a non-starter with Democrats in both Congress and the White House. 

The mix of factors — political, tactical and temporal — is sparking plenty of concerns that Congress will be unable to reach the agreement to prevent the partial shutdown that’s looming at the end of next week. 

“I think the odds are 50-50 at this point,” Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) told CBS’s Major Garrett on “The Takeout” podcast this week.

A deal is expected to be released as early as Sunday.

“All the Speaker has to do is allow the Appropriations Committee to go get a deal,” McHenry said. “If the Speaker wishes to stop it, for whatever reason, we’ll probably have a government shutdown.”

The debate is the latest challenge for Johnson who, less than four months into his Speakership, is facing the same dilemma over government funding that led to the removal of his predecessor. And his options all carry risks. 

If Johnson brings bipartisan spending compromises to the floor, he could keep the government open but might face the conservative backlash that toppled former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.).

If he decides to block those spending bills, the government would likely shut down, providing a political gift to President Biden and the Democrats just months before November’s elections. 

The Hill’s Mike Lillis, Mychael Schnell and Al Weaver have more here.