Campaign Report
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Campaign Report
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How a Trump indictment could affect 2024
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Federal prosecutors investigating Donald Trump’s handling of classified documents appear to be closing in on an indictment of the former president. If Trump is charged in the case, it would set off a political earthquake in the 2024 Republican presidential primary — and likely the general election.
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© AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall
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There are a lot of questions surrounding the investigation, but here’s what we know so far:
Trump’s attorneys met on Monday with Justice Department officials, including Special Counsel Jack Smith, who’s leading the probe into whether Trump mishandled classified documents taken with him after he left the White House in 2021.
There are also reports that a federal grand jury in Florida is meeting this week after a lengthy hiatus. On Wednesday, Taylor Budowich, a longtime Trump aide who now heads up the main super PAC supporting his 2024 presidential bid, appeared before the grand jury and was reportedly asked about a past public statement suggesting that Trump had not retained classified documents after he left the White House.
The New York Times reported on Wednesday that prosecutors had told Trump’s attorneys that the former president is a target of their investigation, signaling that charges could be imminent.
The growing field of 2024 Republican presidential hopefuls has so far said little about the possible charges. And even if he is charged, Trump would still be allowed to continue his campaign. Yet an indictment in the case could pave the way for the former president’s challengers to level new accusations of impropriety and unfitness for office against the primary’s current front-runner.
To be sure, after Trump was charged in Manhattan earlier this year for his alleged involvement in a hush-money scheme, his Republican rivals largely came to his defense, casting that indictment as the work of a liberal district attorney intent on weaponizing the justice system.
But the primary fight has intensified since then, especially with the entrance of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis into the race. While DeSantis (mostly) defended Trump after the Manhattan indictment, the two have fought bitterly in recent weeks, signaling the beginning of a new, more contentious phase of the race.
There are also newer entrants, like former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who has indicated that he’ll take a more direct approach to attacking Trump than some of the other candidates. A federal indictment in the classified documents investigation would almost certainly fuel Christie’s efforts.
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Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, I’m Max Greenwood. Each week we track the key stories you need to know to stay ahead of the 2024 election and who will set the agenda in Washington.
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Key election stories and other recent campaign coverage:
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House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said on Thursday that he will “respect” whatever “judicial decision is rendered” by the courts ahead of arguments scheduled later in the day over the state’s congressional maps. A New York appeals court is set to hear arguments in a case seeking to have the bipartisan Independent Redistricting Commission (IRC) redraw the state’s congressional …
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Republican presidential candidate Ron DeSantis is touting endorsements from Oklahoma Republicans as he prepares to head to the state this weekend. On Thursday, former Oklahoma Rep. Jim Bridenstine (R), who served as NASA administrator under former President Trump, threw his support behind the Florida governor. “Governor DeSantis and I were classmates in Congress, original members of the Freedom Caucus, and we have worked …
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Former New Jersey governor and declared 2024 candidate Chris Christie (R) argued on Thursday that Republicans are “tired of losing,” saying former President Trump has been an anchor on the GOP in past election cycles. During an interview on “Fox & Friends” on Thursday, Christie pointed to Republicans’ performance in House, Senate and presidential races since 2016. “I believe the Republican …
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Upcoming news themes and events we’re watching:
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- 128 days until Louisiana’s gubernatorial election
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152 days until Kentucky’s and Mississippi’s gubernatorial generals
- 511 days until the 2024 general election
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Courting at the Convention
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Trump, DeSantis and Pence head to North Carolina
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© Getty Images/Julia Nikhinson
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North Carolina Republicans are huddling in Greensboro for the next few days for their annual convention, and they’ll be joined by three of their party’s most prominent presidential contenders: Trump, DeSantis and former Vice President Mike Pence.
DeSantis will be the first to address the convention, when he takes the stage on Friday evening. Pence is slated to speak on Saturday afternoon, while Trump was given a coveted Saturday evening slot that underscores his continued hold over the GOP.
While they won’t be on the stage together — or even on the same day — the convention will provide an early test of the three candidates’ ability to court grassroots activists and party members in a crucial nominating state for Republicans.
Trump is the current favorite to capture the party’s nomination. Yet the first primaries and caucuses are still months away, and DeSantis, the No. 2 candidate, has only just begun his official White House campaign. What’s more, there are signs that he’s picking up at least some steam on the campaign trail.
And North Carolina Republicans say they’re heading into the convention with an open mind. One GOP operative in the state acknowledged that many Republicans are still loyal to Trump, but aren’t necessarily committed to supporting him in 2024, especially if DeSantis is able to sharpen his case for the nomination.
Pence, meanwhile, has quite a bit more ground to make up. Early polling shows him running well behind both Trump and DeSantis. He’s also signaled that he plans to take a harsher tone toward Trump than many other GOP candidates, especially when it comes to the former president’s involvement in the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol.
It’s a risky play, given Trump’s continued popularity among the GOP’s conservative base and the fact that many primary voters have stood behind the former president’s false claim that the 2020 election was rigged against him.
The convention in North Carolina could provide an early test of how DeSantis and Pence’s pitches can stack up to Trump.
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Branch out with a different read from The Hill:
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A major construction workers union endorsed President Biden’s reelection campaign Thursday, which is a notable nod for the president from big labor. The Laborers’ International Union of North America (LIUNA) said they would back Biden and Vice President Harris after other labor groups, including the United Auto Workers, have said they will hold back from an endorsement just yet. “Every decision President Biden has made, every …
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Former President Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) are neck and neck among Utah Republicans in the presidential primary, even as Trump holds a comfortable lead in national polls. Trump received 27 percent of the vote in a hypothetical primary, while DeSantis received 26 percent, according to the Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll. Former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) received 7 percent of the vote but has not …
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Local and state headlines regarding campaigns and elections:
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New Hampshire lawmaker leaves Democratic caucus over first in the nation primary and LGBTQ rights (Boston Globe)
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Ethics Commission, Lombardo tangle over governor’s use of badge, uniform on 2022 campaign (The Nevada Independent)
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Miami mayor raising super PAC cash, assembling campaign team as ‘24 announcement looms (Miami Herald)
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Election news we’ve flagged from other outlets:
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Supreme Court rejects voting map that diluted Black voters’ power (The New York Times)
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How Ron DeSantis found a home in Florida’s swamp (NBC News)
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Spoiler alert: NYC mayor could complicate Dem plans to retake the House (Politico)
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Opinion editorials on The Hill:
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Key stories on The Hill right now:
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The late-stage presentation of evidence to a Florida grand jury is the latest sign that former President Trump may face trial in Miami as prosecutors work to insulate the Mar-a-Lago case from legal challenges stemming from the location of the proceedings. Special counsel Jack Smith has for months been calling witnesses before a Washington, … Read more
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The expected federal indictment of former President Trump, which former Attorney General Bill Barr predicts is “near,” is teeing up a Capitol Hill battle over funding for the Justice Department and FBI. Trump allies, led by House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), have threatened to cut Department of Justice and FBI funding … Read more
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Opinions related to campaigns and elections submitted to The Hill:
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Max Greenwood, The Hill’s resident Florida Man, is leaving us on Friday after six-and-a-half years. He’ll have more on his next move soon, so give him a follow @KMaxGreenwood on Twitter if you haven’t already, but rest assured that he’ll still be in Florida covering the 2024 presidential race and beyond.
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You’re all caught up. See you next time!
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