The Big Story 

Voters in Utah’s second congressional district are heading to the polls today for a rare Thanksgiving-week special election.  

© AP/Riebe Malloy

The race will decide who replaces Republican Rep. Chris Stewart, who resigned earlier this year. 

On the ballot are Democrat Kathleen Riebe, a state senator, and Republican Celeste Maloy, a former Stewart staffer. The winner will fill the last current vacancy in the House. Stewart stepped away from the House in September after nearly six terms in the lower chamber, citing his wife’s illness. 

Riebe is the No. 2 Democrat in the Utah Senate, while Maloy previously worked for Stewart’s congressional office as chief legal counsel. 

The Beehive State is reliably red, and Maloy is running with the benefit of a connection to Stewart, who easily won reelection in last year’s midterms.  

But the Republican contender has also been linked to some controversy over her status as an inactive voter when she launched her campaign, according to The Salt Lake Tribune. 

Some observers say that although Tuesday night isn’t likely to see a surprise Democrat win, they’ll be looking at the ultimate margin between the two contenders, as a solid performance from Riebe could signal to Democrats that the second congressional district could be a more viable pickup opportunity in the future.  

“The question becomes, if this is a little bit closer than expected: With a little more effort, with a little bit better funding and a little better support, would this become the seat to contest?” said Damon Cann, head of Utah State University’s department of political science. 

The Thanksgiving-week special election comes shortly after a slew of off-year contests were held earlier this month. Democrats won several key contests in states like Ohio, Virginia and Kentucky, giving the party some more momentum as 2024 approaches.  

Nathaniel Rakich, a senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight, said in an analysis of the race that Utah Republicans “could get a bit of a scare” on Tuesday if Democrats continue their recent special election strength. 

Whoever wins the race will join Utah’s three other House lawmakers, all Republican, and its two GOP senators in the state’s congressional delegation — filling out the House to its full numbers for the time being.  

Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, we’re Julia Mueller, Julia Manchester, Caroline Vakil and Liz Crisp. Each week we track the key stories you need to know to stay ahead of the 2024 election and who will set the agenda in Washington. 

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The Countdown 

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On Our Watch 

© Greg Nash

New polls out this week continue to show former President Trump on the rise and President Biden on the decline.  

With the 2024 general election just under a year away, a lot can change between now and next November. Trump will be a defendant in a number of criminal trials against him, which are set to overlap with the campaign calendar. On top of that, other factors could change, including the state of the economy and the Israel-Hamas War.  

Still, the recent polling offers a revealing snapshot of how voters are feeling in the current moment. A Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey released on Monday showed Trump expanding his lead over Biden, 48 percent to 41 percent. That poll followed an NBC News poll released on Sunday showing Biden’s approval rating dropping to 40 percent. The poll comes as the Israel-Hamas War continues to rage on in the Middle East.

The same NBC News poll showed only 34 percent of all voters approving of the president’s handling of the war. The danger for Biden though could come among young voters, a critical voting bloc for Democrats, and their views of the war.  According to the NBC News poll, 46 percent of 18 to 34 year-olds said they approved of Trump while 42 percent said they approved of Biden.  

But one this is for certain: the Biden campaign is taking note of the president’s poor poll numbers and looking to change their strategy. The Hill’s Brett Samuel’s reported earlier this week that the Biden campaign is ratcheting up its offensive against Trump, rolling out daily memos about what another Trump term would mean for abortion rights, the economy and immigration. 

And there are some bright spots for Biden in the latest polling, too. The Harvard CAPS-Harris X polling showed Biden getting a 45 percent approval rating on the economy and jobs, which is modestly higher than a similar survey conducted in October that showed him with a 44 percent of approval rating on economy and jobs.  

Polling also continues to show Trump dominating the GOP field. A Monmouth University poll released last week showed Trump leading with 46 percent support in New Hampshire, followed by Haley at 18 percent support. Meanwhile, a CNN poll of New Hampshire voters showed Trump leading with 42 percent in New Hampshire and Haley at 20 percent.

While Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) did not come in second or third place, he is battling Haley for second place in Iowa and nationally. According to the Real Clear Politics polling average, Trump leads with 59.4 percent, followed by DeSantis at 14 percent and Haley at 10 percent.  

On Our Watch 

© Getty Images

Republican presidential candidates are grappling with the issue of abortion as the party struggles to unify around counter-messaging on a topic that delivered Democrats major wins this month. 

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie hit back at Republican National Committee (RNC) Chair Ronna McDaniel, who said earlier this month “we can’t just say it’s a state’s issue and be done.” Christie said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” this past Sunday that “she doesn’t know how hard these choices are and how you have to interact with people.” 

“I want the American people to decide. That’s the right way to make this judgment. And with all due respect to Ronna, she’s not running for president, and she’s never governed,” he told “Meet the Press” moderator Kristen Welker. 

Meanwhile, California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) hit Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis over abortion, with Newsom’s Campaign for Democracy PAC targeting the Florida governor for signing a six-week abortion ban, with limited exceptions afterward, into law earlier this year in a new TV ad. However, that ban is on hold amid ongoing litigation over Florida’s current 15-week ban. 

Democrats are also looking to target former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley after she said she would have signed a six-week abortion ban if it had come to her desk as South Carolina governor during The Family Leader’s Thanksgiving Family Forum. 

“Yes, whatever the people decide,” she told Bob Vander Plaats, president and CEO of The Family Leader. 

“I think it’s right to be in the hands of the people. I think that the people decided this was put in the states. That’s where it should be, everybody can give their voice to it. And if that’s where — and I can tell you, that’s where the people of South Carolina decided. They decided to be at six weeks as well,” she added. 

However, Haley has argued that Republicans don’t have the 60 votes in the Senate to pass a national abortion ban, saying the GOP should focus on other solutions that can address the issue of abortion.

The Democratic National Committee (DNC) has hit back at her remarks.

“Just this month, Haley has thrown her support behind extreme six-week abortion bans and pledged to sign any national abortion ban that came to her desk in her latest salvo to galvanize the MAGA base,” said spokeswoman Sarafina Chitika in a statement on Monday, Haley has only succeeded in alienating even more voters, who rejected her extremism when she was in the governor’s mansion and will do so again next year.” 

In Other News 

Branch out with a different read from The Hill:

What to know in Utah’s special House election

Voters in Utah’s 2nd Congressional District will cast their ballots Tuesday to decide who fills the only current U.S. House vacancy, in a special election just days ahead of Thanksgiving.   The House has been down one member since Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Utah) resigned from Congress in September after six terms in the lower chamber, citing health concerns for his wife.   Now, Democratic …

Senate Democrats shoot down Biden naysayers in party

Senate Democrats are pushing back hard on criticism from within their own party that President Biden’s poll numbers are so weak that the party should replace him atop the ticket, dismissing concerns about Biden’s electability as totally counterproductive.   Some of the sharpest criticism of Biden’s electability has come from former President Obama’s senior political adviser David Axelrod, who is warning that Biden has …

Around the Nation 

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What We’re Reading 

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Elsewhere Today 

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