Trump has railed against certain renewable technologies, particularly wind energy. He has vowed to repeal regulations that could speed up renewable adoption. And, with Republicans securing control in the House and Senate, the party may try to claw back some tax credits and other incentives for low-carbon power.
In the immediate aftermath of Trump’s win, renewable energy stocks fell. Utility Duke Energy said it would reconsider its plans to shift away from coal. Chinese manufacturer Trina Solar also said it would sell its Texas factory, though it said the decision had “nothing to do” with Trump’s win.
However, analysts told The Hill they don’t expect the renewable sector to wane significantly after the momentum it achieved under the Biden administration.
“The focus from the federal government and the executive branch on putting the U.S. on a net-zero trajectory — that’s not the direction of policy in the next White House. However, this election does not mean that the momentum for low-carbon energy is over,” said David Brown, director of data firm Wood Mackenzie’s energy transition practice.
“There’s a robust pipeline of projects in the next few years. If you look at offshore wind, for example, there’s clarity on the next five to 10 years on how much capacity has been permitted,” he added.
Brown pointed to the billions of dollars worth of tax credits passed in 2022 as part of the Democrats’ climate, tax and health care bill that spurred additional billions of private investments in renewables.
“Zero-carbon energy sources of electricity, particularly wind and solar, are economic, and we think they’ll grow even in a slower low-carbon scenario,” he said.
The office of House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), in a plan released over the summer for Trump’s first 100 days, called for the repeal of “wasteful Green New Deal tax credits.”
While this would hurt the build-out of renewables, it wouldn’t completely wipe out their potential growth.
BloombergNEF policy associate Derrick Flakoll said the firm projects that if tax credits are repealed for projects beginning construction in 2026 or later, that would cause a 17 percent drop in collective build-out for wind, solar and battery storage.
But, even under that scenario, “we do see annual build rates return to 2024 levels before the end of the decade,” said Meredith Annex, BloombergNEF’s head of clean power analysis.
Read more at TheHill.com.
