The incoming Trump administration is likely to try to undo the December approval for California — and a wave of litigation will also probably challenge the Biden administration’s decision. 

But President-elect Trump’s anticipated actions could also face court challenges. And California could have more tricks up its sleeve to push its market toward electric vehicles regardless of what Trump does. 

“There’s just an enormous amount of uncertainty about whether the rule goes into effect — lots of moving parts. It will take a while before we know the answer to that question,” said Ann Carlson, a former Biden administration official who is now an environmental law professor at the University of California, Los Angeles. 

As the legal process plays out, it’s not clear for automakers what their national or state-level electric vehicle sales requirements will be.

“Navigating these challenges is especially acute for heavily regulated automakers and suppliers because of our multi-year design and manufacturing cycles and the significant capital expenditures necessary to bring any new vehicle to market,” John Bozzella, president of the lobbying group Alliance for Automotive Innovation, said in a recent memo to Trump. He also called the current California and federal rules “out-of-step” with market realities. 

California could try to implement a side deal with carmakers amid the potential policy and legal battles.

After the last Trump administration revoked an Obama-era Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) authorization for California to set car standards, the state and several automakers inked a deal to increase the fuel efficiency of their fleets.

“If companies are looking for certainty, their best effort will be to have an agreement with California,” said Margo Oge, who directed the EPA’s Transportation and Air Quality office for nearly two decades. 

Read more at TheHill.com.

Welcome to The Hill’s Energy & Environment newsletter, we’re Rachel Frazin and Zack Budryk — keeping you up to speed on the policies impacting everything from oil and gas to new supply chains.