? “Trump’s vote is rock-solid, his people would walk on hot coals for him. Biden’s voters have far more tepid feelings[.] … Then there is a block of voters who would never vote for Trump, but do not really want to vote for Biden. If that group is offered an off-ramp, there is a good chance that they will take it. It is difficult to come up with a third-party or independent candidate scenario that does not result in a net benefit for Trump. On the other hand, if they don’t have an alternative, they may well just stay home.” — Charlie Cook, founder of The Cook Political Report

? “Both Joe Biden and Donald Trump, if each is nominated, are likely to go into the general election campaign with higher unfavorability than favorability. This means that a significant slice of the electorate will have negative views of both candidates, and these kinds of voters likely will decide the election. They also are probably the voters who would be more open to voting third party. So the roster of third party candidates and who they disproportionately hurt could matter a great deal.“ — Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball

? “While third-party and independent presidential candidates are unlikely to gain more than a very small percent of the vote or win outright, they nonetheless pose a significant threat to the major parties because … ever since the 2000 election there has been only a few points difference between the votes for major party candidates. Aside from obvious cases like the Greens siphoning votes away from the Democrats, it is not yet clear which major party stands to lose more votes owing to which particular third-party/independent candidate. There exists, however, widespread concern from former allies of the No Labels group that they are strategizing to harm the Democrats much more than the Republicans, despite their purported claims of wanting to equally oppose both Trump and Biden.“ — Bernard Tamas, associate professor of political science at Valdosta State University and author of “The Demise and Rebirth of American Third Parties”

? “The major parties should be somewhat concerned, although they might downplay it. On the one hand, voters are less inclined to vote for third party candidates nowadays because of the possibility of contributing to a ‘spoiler outcome,’ which is especially unappealing to voters nowadays, given voters generally have strong negative feelings towards ‘the other party’ in this polarized era. On the other hand (and why they should worry), even a small number of votes can tip the balance in some swing states and therefore the outcome of the election.“ — Dan Lee, associate professor of political science at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, whose research areas include the impact of third parties