© Getty Images

President Biden rallied Black voters in the key swing state of Pennsylvania on Wednesday, as polls show former President Trump making inroads among the younger voters who make up this core Democratic constituency. 

Speaking at the majority Black prep school Girard College in Philadelphia, Biden announced a new eight-figure Black voter outreach program alongside Black Democratic leaders, including Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, Biden campaign co-chair Cedric Richmond, and Congressional Black Caucus Chair Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Nev.).

Biden touted accomplishments that he said addressed key concerns of the Black community, including executive orders on police reforms and student debt; removing lead pipes and expanding Internet access in underserved communities; new investments in Black-owned businesses; and pardons for marijuana users.

The president also bashed Trump for his pitch to Black voters, accusing him of spreading “MAGA lies” about his record.

“I’ve shown you who I am and Trump has shown you who he is, and today Donald Trump is pandering and peddling lies and stereotypes for your vote so he can win for himself, not for you. Well, Donald Trump, I have a message for you: Not in our house, and not on our watch.”
 

The outreach comes as polls show cracks in Biden’s Black coalition, which was so crucial to his 2020 primary and general election victories.

The latest data from Pew Research finds that 77 percent of Black voters said they either support or are leaning toward supporting Biden in 2024, compared to 18 percent for Trump.

That’s a strong majority, but in 2020 Biden won Black voters with 92 percent, compared to only 8 percent for Trump.

Among Black voters under the age of 50, the shift in support is even more pronounced, with Pew finding that 68 percent favor Biden against 29 percent for Trump.

The 2024 race is lining up to be extremely close and is likely to be decided in a handful of battleground states, so a shift of even a few percentage points among Black voters could impact the outcome.

“If anyone every wonders if their vote matters, remember this – because Black Americans voted in 2020…Kamala and I are president and vice president of the United States. Because of you, Donald Trump is the defeated former president and with your vote in 2024 we’re going to make Donald Trump a loser again.”

The location of Biden’s Black mobilization effort is also important, as “Scranton Joe” seeks to lock down Pennsylvania, which he won by 1.2 points in 2020. Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania by less than 1 point in 2016.

According to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s average of polls, Trump currently leads Biden by 1.5 points in Pennsylvania. 

Sen. John Fetterman (D-Penn.) warned on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” that the race in Pennsylvania would likely go down to the wire.

“I fundamentally believe that it’s going to be a close race…Biden carried Pennsylvania by 80,000 votes, and now, he has a strong record, but it’s still going to be close. And for that eight years, Trump has a strong position in Pennsylvania. He definitely does, but I don’t believe he can win, ultimately.”

The Hill’s Jared Gans has the state of play based on the latest forecast model released by Decision Desk HQ and The Hill.

The bottom line: Republicans are the favorites across the board. The model gives Trump a 58 percent chance of winning the White House, as he holds small leads in most of the battleground states. Republicans also have an 80 percent chance of winning the Senate, and a 64 percent chance of holding on to the House.

More campaign coverage:

• Introducing the Decision Desk HQ 2024 Election Forecast Model.
• Lost in the polling – the race is still very close.
• Poll finds Trump and Biden tied in Virginia.
• Chris Christie gives Biden debate advice for beating Trump.

• 4 million chickens killed after bird flu detected at Iowa farm
  
  

• Inside Trump and Musk’s growing alliance
  
  
• The U.S. faces a deadly maternal mental health crisis – and it may be getting worse, by Alejandra O’Connell-Domenech. This is part two in The Hill’s maternal mental health series.

© AP Photo/Eric Gay

President Trump’s hush money trial in Manhattan is out of his hands and into those of the 12 New Yorkers on the jury who listened to weeks of testimony and have begun their deliberations.

The decision on the 34 felony counts against Trump could come at any time.

A conviction would make Trump the first ever president found guilty of a crime, and an acquittal would make him the first to ever be cleared of one.

Judge Juan Merchan gave final instructions to the jury before deliberations.

The jury has asked to review critical pieces of testimony and has asked to rehear the judge’s instructions, which were passed along earlier in the day. They’ve adjourned for the day and will continue deliberations on Thursday.

The jury must consider a complex case involving the prosecution’s novel interpretation of election law.

The Hill’s Brett Samuels explains that falsifying business records is a misdemeanor, but the prosecution brought felony charges, contending that Trump made the hush money payment to bury a story that would have impacted the outcome of the 2016 election:

“To find Trump guilty, jurors must determine Trump acted with the intent to further another crime. Throughout just more than four weeks of testimony, prosecutors with the Manhattan district attorney’s office implicated Trump in a broad conspiracy to clear his path to the White House by stifling negative stories about him ahead of the election. They contend the scheme ran afoul of state and federal election laws.”

Trump unloaded on the charges outside the courtroom:

“Mother Teresa could not beat these charges. These charges are rigged. The whole country’s a mess between the borders and fake elections and you have a trial like this where the judge is so conflicted he can’t breathe…

It’s a disgrace. And I mean that. Mother Teresa could not beat those charges. But we’ll see. We’ll see how we do.”

No one knows what the outcome of the trial will mean for the 2024 election, but CNN election analyst Harry Enten notes that so far the trial has not moved the needle at all.

The race stands at the same place today as it did before opening statements were made.

Furthermore, there’s a long list of issues voters say are more important than Trump’s trial, including the economy and inflation, immigration and border security, election legitimacy and abortion.

Read more:

• Deliberations begin in historic Trump hush money trial.
• Political world braces for Trump verdict.
• Vance asks Garland to probe gag order in Trump hush money case.
• Trump argues judge preventing him from using defense his own lawyers declined to use.

The Hill’s Caroline Vakil and Saul Elbein have the takeaways from the contentious primary runoffs in Texas, where the GOP’s intraparty divisions were on full display.

State House Speaker Dade Phelan survived, despite Trump backing his opponent. But some state Republicans were rebuffed after warring with Gov. Greg Abbott over school voucher programs or for supporting impeachment proceedings against Attorney General Ken Paxton.

One of those to fall was state Rep. Justin Holland, who clashed with Abbott and Paxton. Katrina Pierson, who was the national spokesperson for Trump’s 2016 campaign, defeated Holland in the primary runoff.

Get the full rundown of election results here.

Vakil also has another helpful guide detailing the state legislatures that could change hands in November. 

Look for hard-fought contests for state control in Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Arizona, New Hampshire and Wisconsin. All of those are battleground states in the presidential election, as well.

© AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite

Justice Samuel Alito told lawmakers on Wednesday that he won’t recuse himself from cases related to the Jan. 6 riots after it was reported that flags connected with the “Stop the Steal” effort had flown at two of his homes.

The Hill’s Al Weaver reports that Alito wrote letters to Congress explaining that his wife had flown the flags in both instances.

“My wife is fond of flying flags. I am not. My wife was solely responsible for having flagpoles put up at our residence and our vacation home and has flown a wide variety of flags over the years.”

Alito says that the upside-down flag that flew at one of his homes came after an altercation between Alito’s wife and their neighbors that had nothing to do with politics. 

The New York Times disputes the timing of Alito’s claims.

And Alito said he had no knowledge that the “Appeal to Heaven” flag, which dates back to the Revolutionary War, had been co-opted by right-wing interests and was among the flags carried by rioters on Jan. 6.

“A reasonable person who is not motivated by political or ideological considerations or a desire to affect the outcome of Supreme court cases would conclude that this event does not meet the applicable standard for recusal. I am therefore duty-bound to reject your recusal request.”

Trump praised Alito in a post on social media, saying his refusal to recuse took “intelligence, courage and guts.”

If Trump wins the White House, Congressional Republicans will be ready to switch into action.

The Hill’s Tobias Burns reports that Republicans are already laying the ground work to extend the Trump tax cuts through the reconciliation process if everything breaks there way in November.

From Burns’ reporting:

“Republican tax writers have already broken into working groups on specific tax topics in advance of the 2025 tax cut expirations, priming the House Ways and Means Committee to get straight to work if the GOP sweeps Congress and the White House.”

The budget reconciliation process allows lawmakers to pass spending and tax bills with a simple majority, thereby avoiding the 60-vote threshold to get past a filibuster. That’s how President Obama passed the Affordable Care Act and how Biden passed the Inflation Reduction Act.

More from Capitol Hill:

• Senate Republican calls for ‘generational’ $55 billion investment in defense.
• A fight over SNAP funding could derail the farm bill.
• Missouri lawmakers in both parties are blasting Speaker Johnson for scheduling a vote on a smaller radiation exposure bill.

“Partisan political hacks in black robes,” by Mark Mellmann, pollster and president of the Mellmann Group.

“The Trump jury is out but is the case in the bag?,” by Jonathan Hurley, the J.B. and Maurice C. Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at the George Washington University Law School.

29 days until the first presidential debate.

47 days until the Republican National Convention.

82 days until the Democratic National Convention.

160 days until the 2024 general election.

236 days until Inauguration Day 2025.

Thursday

• Biden travels to his home in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware.

You’re all caught up! Stay with TheHill.com for the latest and recommend this newsletter to others: TheHill.com/Evening. See you tomorrow!