The big question weighing on the minds of Washington insiders is what impact the guilty verdict will have on the presidential race.
As we noted yesterday, the dynamics of the race haven’t changed since the opening remarks in the Manhattan courthouse.
Trump continues to hold a small lead in most battleground states and he’s the narrow favorite to win the White House.
A poll released before the verdict on Thursday found that a guilty verdict might not change the race all that much.
The latest Marist survey found that more than two-thirds of voters said a guilty verdict would not affect their vote, with 17 percent saying they’d be less likely to support Trump. About 15 percent said they’d be more likely to support Trump if he’s found guilty.
Trump’s former national security adviser John Bolton, who has become a fierce critic of the former president, told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins that a guilty verdict could potentially swing independents toward Biden.
“I think a lot of independent voters, they may say: That’s the end of it for us.”
One place where Democrats largely agree — the Biden campaign’s stunt of rolling out Robert De Niro to bash Trump outside the courthouse during his criminal trial did not go over well.
The Biden campaign had previously sought to steer clear of the trial to avoid the impression of meddling or impropriety.
Democratic strategist David Axelrod called the move “ill-timed.”
“Who thought this was a good idea? I love De Niro’s work and agree with many of his comments. But given the arm’s length distance the White House has kept from the whole sordid mess at 100 Centre Street, they seemed grossly ill-timed.”
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The Trump campaign said earlier in the day it will be business as usual.
The Associated Press reports that Republican National Committee co-chair Lara Trump said the former president would still campaign even if he’s found guilty.
“We will have him doing virtual rallies and campaign events if that is the case. And we’ll have to play the hand that we’re dealt.”
Meanwhile, Democrats are trying to keep the lid from boiling over as polls consistently show Biden trailing Trump in the states that matter.
The Hill’s Al Weaver and Alex Gangitano report that “anxiety is at a high water mark” among Democrats, but leaders are used to these bouts of “tortured hand-wringing,” which also took place when Democrats performed better than expected in 2022.
Republicans are also favored to win back the Senate, but GOP leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) isn’t sleeping comfortably just yet.
The Hill’s Alexander Bolton reports that McConnell believes the GOP faces an uphill climb in unseating Democratic incumbents in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Montana and Ohio.
“I think incumbency, as we learned in ’22, is an advantage. Not a single incumbent lost in ’22. Sen. Daines and I have never said we thought this was going to be easy.”
