Former President Trump’s first campaign swing since his Manhattan convictions takes him to the sweltering conditions of the American Southwest, where polls show he’s in good shape to potentially win two Sun Belt states that President Biden narrowly carried in 2020.
Trump held a town-hall event Thursday in Phoenix, and he’ll spend the weekend rallying supporters and raising money in Las Vegas.
Biden won Arizona by less than half-a-point in 2020, becoming the first Democrat to win the state since 1996. Biden topped Trump by 2.4 points in Nevada, where the GOP candidate has not won since 2004.
Trump’s southwest campaign comes as a new Fox News poll finds him leading Biden by 5 points in both Arizona and Nevada. The Hill-Decision Desk average of polls shows Trump ahead by 3.3 points in Arizona and 3.4 points in Nevada.
In the Fox News polls, voters overwhelmingly prefer Trump on the economy and immigration.
The U.S. labor market blew past expectations on Friday, adding 272,000 new jobs in May. But many voters say they aren’t feeling the effects of a strong economy because of high prices on gas, food and housing.
It remains to be seen how Biden’s executive order to limit border crossings will be received by voters, but Republicans have a strong and steady advantage on the issue.
Immigration is a particularly salient issue in the border state of Arizona.
“If Joe Biden truly wanted to sign an executive order to stop the invasion, he only needs the single — think of it — a single sentence: I hereby immediately reinstate every single border policy of the gentleman named Donald J. Trump,” Trump said at his Phoenix town-hall.
It’s not all good news for Republicans in Arizona, as two former Trump aides, Mark Meadows and Mike Roman, were arraigned in Maricopa County on charges pertaining to a conspiracy to overturn the 2020 election in the state. They pleaded not guilty on Friday. Arizona Republicans have also nominated a polarizing Senate candidate in Kari Lake.
But with polls showing Trump holding small but meaningful leads across the Sun Belt, including in Georgia, which went for Biden in 2020, Democrats are hoping their Blue Wall holds in the Midwest.
The race is effectively tied in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. If Biden holds on to all three he can afford to lose the Sun Belt states to Trump.
That outcome would give Biden a supremely narrow 270-268 Electoral College victory, if the rest of the 2020 map remains the same.
That’s probably too close for comfort for most Democrats, who worry the protest vote over Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war could cost them in Michigan, with its large Arab and Muslim population.
The Hill’s Alex Gangitano has the latest on Democratic worries over the significant protest vote that has haunted Biden throughout the primaries. More than 500,000 Democrats, including 101,000 in Michigan, have gone to the polls to vote “uncommitted.”
And Washington, D.C., is bracing for Gaza protests this weekend, with organizers expecting tens of thousands will flood the streets around the White House. Protesters already disrupted Vice President Harris’s appearance on “Jimmy Kimmel Live” this week.
In addition, polls continue find Trump with surprising strength in traditionally blue regions.
A new Fox News poll found the race is tied in Virginia, which Biden carried by double-digits in 2020.
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