© AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin |
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Harris to leave convention with wind at her back |
Vice President Harris will address the Democratic National Convention Thursday night as the slight favorite to be the next president, capping a historic month-long run that has completely upended the political landscape. Harris should leave the convention with momentum as the campaigns prep for the final 75-day sprint to the finish: -
Harris and the Democrats have far out-raised former President Trump and the Republicans since President Biden stepped aside last month. Harris raised $500 million in her first month, an astonishing sum that has also trickled down ballot, where Democrats are raising enormous sums.
- Harris has her biggest lead yet in the The Hill/Decision Desk HQ national polling index. She leads in four of the seven battlegrounds, although the race is very close.
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While Harris has committed to sitting for one media interview before Labor Day, this convention will mark the last major event until her debate against
Trump on Sept. 10.
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That could set Harris up for an even longer honeymoon. Notably, Trump’s post-convention bounce was cut short by Biden dropping out of the race only three days later.
The final night of Democrats’ convention is setting up to be a spectacle: -
The Chicks, formerly the Dixie Chicks, will perform the national anthem. The group’s country music career was famously derailed when they spoke out against former President George W. Bush in 2003. Their appearance tonight, coupled with the ubiquitous camo hats at the convention, are part of the party’s cultural outreach to rural Americans.
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Pink will also perform, and there’s rumored to be top-tier mystery act, driving home the Democrats’ celebrity advantage. Could it be Beyonce or Taylor Swift?
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Democrats will feature a big slate of candidates up for election in key races and battlegrounds, including Sens. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) and Bob Casey (D-Pa.), as well as Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas), who only trails Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) by 2 points in a new poll.
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The parade of anti-Trump Republicans will continue, led by former GOP Rep. Adam Kinzinger (Ill.). Here’s the full list of Republicans who have spoken so far this week.
Still, there are some divisions and potential headwinds: -
The pro-Palestinian faction is incensed that none of their representatives were given a speaking slot at the convention, underscoring ongoing tensions with the Biden-Harris administration.
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Vulnerable Democrats up for election, including Sens. Jon Tester (Mont.), Sherrod Brown (Ohio) and Rep. Jared Golden (Maine) are staying away from the convention, not wanting to be seen as too close to Harris.
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Trump has repeatedly outperformed the polls. And Harris is not running as strong as Biden or Hillary Clinton were at this point in 2020 or 2016.
Thursday’s theme: “For Our Future:” - Democrats will argue that a second Trump term “would be even more dangerous and more extreme than the first one.”
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They’ll make the case that Harris will “lead America into a brighter, more hopeful era.”
Other speakers: Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.), Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D), North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D), Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas), Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), former Rep. Gabby Giffords (D-Ariz.).
Perspectives:
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© Yuki Iwamura and Jose Luis Magana, Associated Press |
Analysts game out potential Kennedy endorsement for Trump
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Speculation is mounting that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will end his independent bid for president and throw his support behind former President Trump in what could be the latest major development in a topsy-turvy campaign cycle. -
It’s hard to know exactly how much of an impact such a move would have, as Kennedy’s support has been on a downward trend.
- Conventional wisdom suggests Trump would get some kind of boost, as polls seem to show Kennedy drawing more from him than Harris.
GOP strategist Karl Rove told Fox News’s Laura Ingraham that it could help Trump in two critical Sun Belt swing states:
“We don’t know exactly. We don’t know who’s left in the Robert Kennedy camp. My gut tells me it probably helps Donald Trump because the people who were for him because he was a Kennedy, I think they began leaving after Joe Biden pulled out on the 21st. So a small amount of help. But as you know, in a race like this, I mean, think about it. Did he have 10,000 followers in Georgia? Did he have 11,000 followers in Arizona? And then how did they split? Probably not dispositive, but it could have an impact.”
Trump said Thursday on “Fox & Friends” that he’d welcome the endorsement. “I’ve known him for a long time. He’s, as you know, he’s a little different kind of a guy. Very smart guy. Very good person.” “If he endorsed me. I would be honored by it. I would be very honored by it … He really has his heart in the right place. He is a respected person. Women love some of his policies, and I guess some people don’t like some of his policies.” Trump’s running mate Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) said the campaign is not offering anything to Kennedy in return. “I think you shouldn’t ever trade important jobs in the government for an endorsement. Whether it’s illegal or not, it’s certainly unethical.”
Trump is currently in Arizona touring the Southern border. Kennedy will make the announcement about his “path forward” tomorrow in Arizona.
Speculation over Kennedy and how his potential withdrawal might shake up the presidential race comes as new polls find Vice President Harris and the Democrats running strong. -
Harris leads Trump by 5 points in a new University of New Hampshire survey of Maine’s 2nd District, where an Electoral College vote is up for grabs. Trump won the district by 7 points in 2020.
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A new University of Houston poll of Texas finds Trump with a narrow 4 point lead. Trump carried Texas by 5.5 points in 2020, the smallest margin for a Republican in nearly 30 years. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) has only a 2 point lead over Rep. Colin Allred (D) in the Texas Senate race.
- Harris leads Trump by 1 point in North Carolina, according to a new High Point University survey. Former President Obama won the state in 2008, but no other Democrat has won there since 1976.
Still, according to 538, Harris has a much smaller lead at this point than either President Biden in 2020 or Hillary Clinton in 2016. The polls drastically underestimated Trump’s support in both elections. 2024: Harris +3.2 2020: Biden +8.8 2016: Clinton +6
Former President Bill Clinton drove this point home in his convention speech Wednesday night.
“Don’t underestimate your adversary. We’ve seen more than one election slip away from us when we thought it couldn’t happen, when people got distracted by phony issues or overconfidence…This is a brutal, tough business.”
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Pro-Palestinian groups push for representation at convention
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The pro-Palestinian protesters who have largely remained peaceful outside the convention in Chicago are growing frustrated with Vice President Harris and Democrats for denying their faction a chance to speak at the convention. The “Uncommitted” movement won 30 delegates to the convention, as hundreds of thousands of Democrats went to the polls during the primaries to register their anger at President Biden over his handling of the Gaza war. Convention speakers, including Biden, have occasionally nodded to the plight of the protesters in Chicago.
Protesters, including Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), engaged in a sit-in at the convention when it became clear a Palestinian American would not get stage time at the convention. -
The group Muslim Women for Harris said it would disband due to no Palestinian getting speaking time.
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The United Auto Workers, which has a massive presence in Michigan, joined the calls for a Palestinian speaker Thursday night. More than 100,000 Democrats voted “uncommitted” in the Michigan primary.
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“If we want the war in Gaza to end, we can’t put our heads in the sand or ignore the voices of the Palestinian Americans in the Democratic Party. If we want peace, if we want real democracy, and if we want to win this election, the Democratic Party must allow a Palestinian American speaker to be heard from the DNC stage tonight.”
The third night of the convention featured an emotional plea from the parents of hostages held by Hamas.
The parents of Hersh Goldberg-Polin, who is among the 109 hostages held by Hamas after the Oct. 7 attack on Israel, pleaded for a deal that releases the hostages and “ends the suffering of the innocent civilians in Gaza.”
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), who electrified the convention earlier in the week, said on X that the convention must allow for a Palestinian speaker:
“Just as we must honor the humanity of hostages, so too must we center the humanity of the 40,000 Palestinians killed under Israeli bombardment.”
Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison, who was the first Muslim ever elected to Congress back in 2006, made the case at the convention Wednesday night that Harris and Walz would be allies to the Pro-Palestinian movement.
“There are people watching tonight. They may be even here tonight who aren’t sure yet about Kamala Harris and Tim Walz, if you want to know where they stand on some of the most urgent issues facing our country in the world, let me assure you, Kamala and Tim hear you.” Thousands of pro-Palestinian protesters marched in Chicago again Thursday.
There have been some arrests and sporadic clashes with police, but the protests have largely been relegated to the background.
Biden and Harris spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu again Wednesday about a potential cease-fire deal with Hamas, though the administration has not been able to close the deal.
Perspectives: -
Vanity Fair: A Palestinian-American’s place under the Democrats’ big tent?
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The Hill: Kamala, listen to the voters: Palestine needs our support.
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“A decade into legalization, underage marijuana use plunges,” by Paul Armentano for The Hill. “Fixing the broken inspector general system,” by Mark Moyar for The Hill. |
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19 days until the first presidential debate between Harris and Trump. 29 days until early in-person voting begins in Minnesota and South Dakota. 40 days until the vice presidential debate between Vance and Walz.
75 days until the 2024 general election.
151 days until Inauguration Day 2025. |
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Thursday - Harris delivers her nominating convention speech around 9:45 p.m. ET.
Friday -
Trump holds a rally in Glendale, Ariz.
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