The latest update to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ election model finds the race for the White House is effectively tied ahead of Tuesday’s debate, with Vice President Harris the slight favorite with a 55 percent chance to win.
The race is a toss-up that will come down to the seven swing-states that will be the primary focus for both campaigns between now and Election Day.
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Pennsylvania is the largest swing state prize, and the winner there will be the heavy favorite to take it all. The candidates are statistically tied in Pennsylvania.
The Hill/Decision Desk HQ model produces a similar outcome to Nate Silver’s model, although Silver currently gives former President Trump a 60 percent chance of victory.
Silver’s model appears to be giving Trump the edge because it was expecting Harris to have more of a convention bounce in Michigan and Pennsylvania, where polls have tightened.
“Statistically speaking Silver’s model is not an ‘outlier’ — to the general public we can understand how they might view his model as markedly different — in reality he is giving an ever-so-slight edge to Trump where we are giving an ever-so-slight edge to Harris.” –Decision Desk HQ’s Scott Tranter.
Harris has benefitted from a narrative about her momentum since taking over for President Biden, who appeared headed for a landslide defeat.
But with polls showing the race tied in Pennsylvania and tightening in Michigan, Democrats are warning that the election could go either way.
Dan Pfeiffer, the adviser to former President Obama, told Puck News that “it’s very possible” Trump would win if the election were held today.
“If you polled the press corps and most Democrats who are not working for the Harris-Walz campaign, 85 percent would say that Kamala Harris would win if the election were held today. If you ask the people who are actually deep in the numbers and paying really close attention to what’s happening in the battleground states, it’s closer to 50-50. And I think it’s very possible that if the election were held today, Trump would win.”
Silver wrote Friday about how Harris is favored to win the national popular vote, but an underdog to win the Electoral College, which is all that matters.
“Let’s talk about the elephant in the room: the Electoral College is starting to look like a challenge for Kamala Harris.”
Harris has had some strong polling in two red states recently, with The Hill/Emerson surveys finding her within the margin of error in both Texas and Florida.
Still, those are tremendous uphill climbs for Democrats, who have been fooled by close polling and narratives about demographic shifts playing to their favor in the past.
In the Senate, Republicans are inching closer to reclaiming a majority.
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Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the Montana Senate race from “toss-up” to “leans Republican,” as new polls show Sen. Jon Tester (D) trailing businessman Tim Sheehy in the deep red state.
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West Virginia is almost certain to flip to Republicans with Sen. Joe Manchin (I) retiring. If Republicans pick up Montana and West Virginia, it should give them a 51-49 majority, unless they lose a seat in Texas or Florida.
Meanwhile, the battle for the House looks increasingly like a toss-up. The Hill/Decision Desk HQ model gives Republicans a 56 percent chance of maintaining their majority.
The Cook Political Report (CPR) moved six House races toward Democrats and two toward Republicans.
From CPR’s Erin Covey:
“Two months out from Election Day, Democrats’ prospects for taking control of the House are looking considerably brighter than they did two months ago. Democratic candidates are no longer burdened by an unpopular incumbent president, free to run in a political environment where Republicans no longer have a clear enthusiasm advantage, and continue to fill their campaign coffers as Republicans’ fundraising lags.”
Perspectives:
