The Hill’s Morning Report — Scalise bows out: What’s next?

House Republicans are leaderless and rudderless as the chamber remains without a Speaker and the conference appears no closer to agreeing on a candidate.

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) pulled out of the GOP contest for Speaker late Thursday, one day after being nominated to succeed the man who had the job until last week, Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.). Scalise on Thursday failed to garner enough support to bring his candidacy to a floor vote, placing the chamber in limbo for yet another weekend and upping the uncertainty among lawmakers as they head toward another government funding deadline and race to respond to the unfolding war in Israel.

Despite narrowly prevailing in a GOP election by secret ballot on Wednesday, it was clear almost immediately that Scalise would struggle to get the 217 votes needed on the House floor. As Thursday progressed, an increasing number of Republicans declared they would not cast their votes for him (The Hill and The New York Times).

Now, the House GOP is back to square one.

“We really need to get our act together. This is a continuation of a pretty dysfunctional disease of the 118th [Congress],” Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.) said Thursday before Scalise withdrew his name.

WHAT WE KNOW: House Republicans are meeting this morning to discuss next steps. While lawmakers are floating a variety of names for the next Speaker candidate, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), who unsuccessfully ran against Scalise for the nomination, is considered a likely option. But Jordan, much like Scalise, may run into math problems — there are already a handful of Republicans who say they won’t support him. 

And in a House with a razor-thin majority, that could be enough to sink his chances. GOP lawmakers on Thursday sounded exasperated about the Speaker drama during interviews with reporters, adding they felt powerless to predict what comes next. 

“I don’t know that anyone can get 217 votes, that’s the problem,” Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.) told Bloomberg’s “Sound On” program. “It is challenging, and it is frustrating for people like me who just want to move forward. … Our fight should be with the Senate, with the White House, for the conservative policies that the American people want.”

▪ The Hill: The public’s opinion of GOP leaders in Congress has dropped amid the Speaker turmoil, a new poll shows.

▪ Bloomberg News: Here’s what the House can do without a Speaker, and how it affects the country.

WHAT WE DON’T KNOW: It’s unclear how long the voting process will drag out once the House returns next week, and whether House Republicans will be able to coalesce around a new candidate. For now, acting Speaker Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) holds the gavel, but he is little more than a placeholder, with little power. That’s starting to concern some lawmakers. Rep. David Joyce (R-Ohio) said Thursday that members of the conference have discussed the possible mechanics of granting additional authority to an interim speaker for a brief period (Roll Call and The Hill).

“From my understanding, going back and forth and parliamentarian and Rules … the possibility exists to give somebody … full duties, excuse me, for a limited period of time,” he said.

There’s another long-shot strategy being considered by some Republican members: asking Democrats for help. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) late Thursday called for Republicans to “get their act together” and elect the next speaker while slamming the “extremists” within their party.

Jeffries said on PBS NewsHour that Democrats are ready, willing and able to move forward on a bipartisan agreement on who would become the next speaker — with Republican support. Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) the chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, said it should be up to Democrats to come to them and make an offer, and currently “they haven’t offered jack.” But Democrats say the GOP should make the first move.

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3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY

▪ The 2024 cost of living increase for Social Security beneficiaries will be 3.2 percent, the government announced Thursday. It’s less than the increases received in 2022 and 2023.

▪ Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Ben Cardin (D-Md.) and Sen. Jim Risch (Idaho), the ranking Republican on the panel, will introduce a bipartisan resolution supporting Israel when the Senate returns to Washington next week.

▪ Experts say having no U.S. ambassador to Israel in place and a backup of military promotions in the Senate is a threat to democracy.

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LEADING THE DAY

ADMINISTRATION & MIDDLE EAST

© The Associated Press / Jacquelyn Martin | Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in Tel Aviv Thursday, consoled victims of Saturday’s Hamas attacks, including dual Israeli-U.S. citizen Lior Gelbaum, 24, left, and her boyfriend, Klil Valiano.

The week ends with portents of war in the Middle East, 27 Americans killed by Hamas and an unknown number of U.S. hostages held captive in Gaza. President Biden, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and U.S. government experts said they’re working every angle to free them.

Hamas claimed Friday that Israel’s airstrikes into Gaza killed at least 13 of the scores of Israeli and foreign hostages it seized Saturday. There are 14 U.S. nationals among those missing in Israel.

Blinken was in Tel Aviv Thursday to meet with Israeli officials and he toured a donation center where an Israeli American woman, Lior Gelbaum, along with her Israeli boyfriend, were volunteers. They said they survived the Hamas attack in southern Israel during a music festival.

“We went through horror really,” said Gelbaum, 24, struggling to hold back tears as she described to Blinken the loss of friends during the attack. “Thank you for being here; it’s really important.”

Americans eager to get on charter flights out of Israel are being helped by the State Department and by members of Congress, who assisted some of their constituents to flee through Egypt and Cyprus.

THE QUESTION repeated everywhere in Washington on Thursday was when Israel’s ground offensive against Hamas in Gaza would begin. Answer: soon. 

Israel’s military told the U.N. late Thursday night that everyone in northern Gaza — more than a million people, many without cars or provisions — should evacuate to the south of the territory within 24 hours, raising expectations that an Israeli invasion was imminent. 

A U.N. spokesperson told CBS News the world body “considers it impossible for such a movement to take place without devastating humanitarian consequences,” but Israeli U.N. Ambassador Gilad Erdan dismissed the U.N.’s response “to Israel’s early warning” as “shameful” and said it ignored the brutality of the attack on Israel. 

U.S. MESSAGES: Blinken left Tel Aviv for Jordan late Thursday, where he will meet today with King Abdullah II and with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. His messages in Israel and in Amman: The United States stands with Israel. Hamas committed acts of terror. Israel must defend itself, but under rules of war and with the values the democratic state espouses. And finally, other actors and nations in the region, including Iran, should stay out of it.

Blinken, who met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, said civilians in Gaza are not the target of Israel’s “legitimate security operations to defend itself from terrorism and to try to ensure that this never happens again.”

The Gaza Ministry of Health reported that 1,537 Palestinians in Gaza, including 500 children, have been killed and 6,612 people, including 1,644 children, have been injured since Hamas attacked and Israel began air strikes.

Iran’s foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, on Thursday began a Middle East tour, including a visit to Lebanon, where Hezbollah, the powerful Tehran-backed militant group, has engaged in continued clashes on Israel’s northern border. As he began his tour, he accused Israel of seeking “genocide” by enforcing a siege against the Gaza Strip, Iranian state TV reported.

▪ The Hill: What we know about the estimated 150 hostages held by Hamas and the handful of Americans taken into Gaza.

▪ The Hill: Here’s how the Pentagon is helping Israel’s military.

▪ The Hill: U.S. readies forces, but plays down potential for troops in Gaza 

IRAN’S $6 BILLION: In Washington, yet another persistent question Thursday was whether the U.S. would re-freeze $6 billion of Iran’s funds that were released for humanitarian needs under a U.S. waiver allowing South Korea to transfer funds through Qatar as part of a U.S. deal for prisoner releases last month.

“We have strict oversight of the funds and we retain the right to freeze them,” Blinken said. “None of the funds that have now gone to Qatar have actually been spent or accessed in any way by Iran,” he added.

The Iranian cash is a flashpoint in Washington and a raw subject for the administration. It sparked bipartisan Senate support to pressure the administration legislatively, if necessary, to prevent Tehran from obtaining its money through Qatar.

The Hill: U.S. puts a hold on $6 billion in Iranian funds.

“NOT ONE DIME of it has been spent,” White House national security spokesman John Kirby said Thursday. “And even if they had accessed it, it wouldn’t go to the regime. It would go to approved vendors that we approved to go buy food, medicine, medical equipment and agricultural products and ship it into Iran directly to the benefit of the Iranian people.”

The Hill: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) faces Democratic divisions on Israel.

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WHERE AND WHEN

The House convenes at 9 a.m.

The Senate, which is out this week, holds a pro forma session at 9:15 a.m.

The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 10:30 a.m. Biden heads to Philadelphia for a tour of Tioga Marine Terminal at 2:20 p.m. before giving a speech at 3:15 p.m. about clean energy, economic policy and union jobs. Biden will fly from Philadelphia to New Castle, Del., where he will remain for approximately three hours before returning to the White House tonight. 

Vice President Harris is in Los Angeles and has no public events. 

The secretary of state is in Jordan where he will meet today with King Abdullah II in Amman at 9:30 a.m. local time. Blinken will meet with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in Amman at 10:45 a.m. local time. The secretary will also travel to Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt before returning to the U.S. Sunday. 

First lady Jill Biden will travel to Columbus, Ohio, and nearby Raymond to visit Outward Farms, a local family-owned egg farm, at 11:30 a.m. In Columbus, she will meet a group of local students at 1 p.m. to promote the administration’s “Investing in America Workforce Hub.” 

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ZOOM IN

POLITICS & CAMPAIGNS

The 2024 presidential contest has temporarily fallen off the front pages amid the Israel-Hamas conflict and lingering dysfunction in Congress as the House searches for a Speaker. Biden, the incumbent, is receiving plenty of coverage for his response to the crisis in Israel, in which Americans have been killed and the administration is working to rescue U.S. hostages. 

Trump blasted his way into news coverage Wednesday night with remarks at a Florida event during which he accused Netanyahu of “letting us down” in 2020 before the U.S. killed a top Iranian general. (Netanyahu in November 2020 phoned “President-elect” Biden 10 days after major news networks determined that Trump lost, and while the former president was falsely claiming he won.)

On Thursday, Trump said in an interview that Israel “wouldn’t have had to be prepared” if he were in the White House (The Hill).

© The Associated Press / Rebecca Blackwell | Former President Trump in West Palm Beach, Fla. on Wednesday.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican presidential primary rival who has been chasing Trump in polls for months, criticized Trump’s remarks, which included calling Hezbollah “very smart.” As The Hill’s Niall Stanage writes in The Memo, DeSantis is seeking some traction, yet it’s not clear voters will desert Trump over the latest example of his episodic praise for dictators, tyrants and terrorists.

Fox News’s new poll of the 2024 presidential primaries and general elections, underscores the ennui: There’s nothing new in either the Republican primary or in potential general-election matchups. Even independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s party switch doesn’t seem to be shaking up the contest meaningfully, leaving analysts, such as The Washington Post’s Philip Bump, predicting 2024 will once again be a neck and neck match-up between Biden and Trump. 

2024 ROUNDUP

▪ Senate Democratic leaders face a tough Arizona’s Senate race, where Rep. Ruben Gallego (D) could potentially square off against not only a Republican, likely former gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, but also Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I). Some Arizona Democrats believe Schumer will support Gallego behind the scenes, noting the animosity many in the party feel toward Sinema.

▪ DeSantis is reserving $2 million for Iowa ads amid tight cash reserves. The outlay — which can be modified over time — represents about 40 percent of the $5 million DeSantis’s campaign said it had at the end of September for use in the primary.

▪ Republicans had floated the idea of impeaching Janet Protasiewicz, newly seated on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, before she could undo the party’s legislative gerrymander. But on Thursday, they backed off.

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ELSEWHERE

COURTS 

Federal prosecutors on Thursday charged Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) and his wife, Nadine Arslanian Menendez, with acting as foreign agents for Egypt. The superseding indictment filed against Menendez, who was chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee at the time of the alleged actions, adds a new dimension to the case by alleging a U.S. senator was working on behalf of another country.

Menendez and his wife were indicted last month on corruption-related offenses, and they are accused of accepting “hundreds of thousands of dollars in bribes” in exchange for the senator’s influence. The trial begins in May, and Menendez has resisted calls to step down (The Hill and CNN).

In a written statement Thursday, the senator said he is not “going anywhere” (The Hill). Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) on Thursday called on the full Senate to vote for a resolution to expel Menendez.

Politico: Is it legal for a senator to work as a foreign agent? The answer won’t surprise you.

© The Associated Press / Jeenah Moon | Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) and wife Nadine Arslanian Menendez, pictured in New York in September, on Thursday were charged with acting as foreign agents for Egypt.

Trump plans to return to the New York courtroom where his civil fraud trial is slowly proceeding next week, The New York Times reports, a reappearance that is likely to bring him face-to-face with his former fixer Michael Cohen. Trump previously attended the first three days of the trial that stems from a lawsuit brought by New York Attorney General Letitia James (D) and used the camera-lined courthouse hallway as an impromptu campaign stop (The New York Times).

MEANWHILE IN FLORIDA, The federal judge overseeing Trump’s classified documents trial held a pair of hearings Thursday afternoon to determine if the lawyers for the former president’s co-defendants, Carlos De Oliveira and Walt Nauta, have conflicts of interest that prevent them from providing adequate legal representation (The Washington Post).

▪ The Wall Street Journal: The pretrial jockeying over Trump’s criminal trials took an unexpected turn Thursday when the judge in the former president’s classified documents case chastised prosecutors for “frankly wasting the court’s time.”

▪ Axios: Trump re-ups request to delay classified docs trial until after 2024 election.

▪ The New York Times: Trump’s claim that he can’t be prosecuted collides with precedents. The former president says he has “absolute immunity.” But an array of Supreme Court decisions tells a different story.

ECONOMY

Here’s an end-of-week economic snapshot: Bottom line … inflation was steady in September and is higher than the Federal Reserve wants to see. To analysts, that translates to a central bank that will not be cutting interest rates this year and will weigh the option to hike its benchmark rate one more time in 2023.

Inflation was up 0.4 percent in September and up 3.7 percent from a year ago. Overall, the Consumer Price Index released Thursday was indicative of a gradual consumer price slowdown. What’s important to consumers about the CPI this week? The Hill’s Tobias Burns explains.

The Labor Department reported that initial unemployment claims filed last week edged up to 209,000 vs. 207,000 in the week prior. Analysts believe the resilient labor market may be showing some signs of weakening, including less wage inflation, which is what the Fed hopes to see.

All eyes are on energy prices because of Middle East unrest. So far, anxieties about an oil shock, limited supplies and inflated prices because of the conflict between Israel and Hamas (neither of which produce much oil) remain conjecture. But all bets are off if Iran enters the fray, experts say.

Biden’s economic advisers this week tracked developments in global oil markets. Oil prices jumped Monday after the terrorist attacks in Israel but fell slightly as the week wore on. Administration officials are concerned that a sustained increase in the cost of crude could hurt economic growth and dent the president’s approval rating, by pushing up the price of gasoline for American drivers and businesses (The New York Times).

LABOR

A bipartisan bill introduced Thursday aims to protect the likeness of actors, singers and other performers from generative artificial intelligence (AI) technology. The Nurture Originals, Foster Art, and Keep Entertainment Safe (NO FAKES) Act would hold individuals or companies liable for producing unauthorized digital replicas of individuals in a performance, along with platforms that host such content (The Hill).

The proposal follows growing concerns over threats from generative AI to creators. It also comes as Hollywood actors represented by SAG-AFTRA continue to strike against the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP). The two groups had been in talks since Oct. 2, but late Wednesday evening, the AMPTP released a statement announcing that talks had been suspended (Vox).

Early Thursday, SAG-AFTRA released a statement in which the union said that the AMPTP had “presented an offer that was, shockingly, worth less than they proposed before the strike began.” 

AUTO STRIKES: The United Auto Workers (UAW) said it is expanding its strike to include a major Ford truck plant in Louisville, Ky., which makes profitable heavy-duty F-Series pickups and large SUVs. On Wednesday night, 8,700 workers walked off the job there. Since Sept. 15, about 25,000 autoworkers have joined work stoppages affecting three major automakers (CNN).

Renewable energy proponents are bolstered after the United Auto Workers union won a key concession from GM on electric vehicles last week, a major step towards what UAW President Shawn Fain has called a “just transition” to EV manufacturing. As The Hill’s Zack Budryk reports, in negotiations with the “Big 3” automakers, Fain has emphasized that the union supports a transition to EVs but demands protections for union jobs during the process. On Friday, GM agreed to place EV battery plants under its master agreement with the UAW. 

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OPINION

■ No Labels won’t help Trump, by Joe Lieberman, opinion contributor, The Wall Street Journal.

■ Israel should not fight its war alone, by Michael R. Bloomberg, Bloomberg Opinion.

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THE CLOSER

© The Associated Press / Haven Daley | Peeps in March, pictured in Lafayette, Calif. The state is the first to ban four chemicals from food and drinks, including red dye No. 3, used in Peeps and other candies.

And finally … 👏👏👏 Congratulations to this week’s Morning Report Quiz winners! We puzzled our way into headlines about hazards, and readers played along.

Safely in the winner’s circle this morning: Patrick Kavanagh, Steve James, Lou Tisler, Harry Strulovici, Jerry La Camera, Don Evans, Randall S. Patrick, Burt Schoenfeld, Carol Meteyer, Pam Manges, Luther Berg and Susan Harber. 

They knew that California over the weekend banned a carcinogenic additive contained in certain candies, and news outlets showcased pillowy Peeps.

Since Saturday, seven journalists who had been reporting in Gaza were killed, bringing the profession’s dangers into sharp relief. [The Committee to Protect Journalists late on Thursday said casualties of journalists had risen to at least 10.]

A World Health Organization scientist predicted to Reuters that conditions caused by global warming will make dengue a new threat in the southern United States.

Many of the most activist, conservative House Republicans continued this week to warn that the federal debt is a major threat to future U.S. generations — and is not being effectively addressed in Washington.

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