Morning Report — What’s Newsom up to?

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), seen a month ago with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing and set to debate GOP presidential candidate Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Fox News next week, is in the spotlight. He’s even hitting DeSantis with a TV ad airing in Florida and Washington focused on abortion. What’s Newsom up to? 

Positioning himself to run for president in 2028, experts told Morning Report’s Kristina Karisch. The governor is taking a two-pronged approach, they said, acting as a surrogate for Biden’s reelection campaign while raising his own profile ahead of 2028. Newsom is not the only blue-state governor making these kinds of moves, but his are some of the most public. 

“Does he look presidential? Does he have the bona fides? Should we take him seriously as a presidential contender? That’s the case that he’s making [right now],” said Thad Kousser, a political science professor at the University of California, San Diego. “Not that every voter in Iowa or in a battleground state [in 2028] will necessarily remember what he did five years ago, but it helps to cement his place in every media conversation.” 

CASE IN POINT: Newsom’s October trip to China, where he helped thread the needle for Xi and Biden’s meeting at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (APEC) in San Francisco. Governors don’t often get the chance to flex their foreign policy credentials like Newsom did in China, Kousser said, making Newsom’s trip even more important ahead of a likely 2028 White House bid. 

“It bolsters his credentials in international relations, which is a weak spot for any governor. The podium that California gives, not just in the nation, but in the ability to stand side by side with President Xi — it’s unparalleled,” Kousser said. “He’s effectively using APEC and the interest in APEC to put himself on the world stage in a way that no other governor can.” 

Biden himself was so impressed by the Golden State governor’s diplomacy that he joked Newsom could have any job he wants, including president, telling a crowd in San Francisco that Newsom has been “one hell of a governor. Matter of fact, he could be anything he wants. He could have the job I’m looking for.” 

Bob Shrum, a longtime Democratic strategist and Director of the Center for the Political Future at the University of Southern California, said he thinks Newsom’s current strategy is to cover all his leadership bases. 

“He’s doing what’s available to him,” Shrum said. “One of his strengths is he’s a very good speaker. He’s a very effective communicator.” 

NEWSOM’S NEXT MOVE: Those communication skills will be key in the Nov. 30 televised debate with DeSantis, which will be held without an audience. The long-teased event marks a climax in the ongoing feud between the governors. While DeSantis, a Republican presidential candidate, will have to use the time to get out his campaign message, Newsom isn’t running for anything. He can’t seek a third term in the governor’s mansion, but he can use the airwaves to bolster his visibility over the next four years. 

“He’s been uniquely successful at injecting himself into the national debate,” Kousser noted. “He’s gone on the offense on the culture wars, through statements that he made and through his visits to red states, which are not about vote-getting, they’re about headlines.”  

BEYOND THE HEADLINES, Newsom is making strategic money moves in key primary states. Both he and Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) recently wrote checks for a candidate in this month’s mayoral election in Charleston, S.C. Campaign finance law expert Paul Ryan said these kinds of donations are an example of a politician playing the “inside game,” expanding “the list” — a network of supporters and donors outside of their state they can count on in the upcoming election cycle. The “outside game” — remaining in the public view — is harder to keep up “week after week, month after month,” Ryan said.  

“A South Carolina politician who gets a maxed-out contribution from Gavin Newsom in late 2023, they’re not going to forget about that favor in three years, four years,” Ryan said. “Those are the types of favors [and] the type of network-building that someone like Gavin Newsom can do now, and it will reap benefits down the road.” 

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Morning Report will return Monday. Enjoy the Thanksgiving weekend! 🦃

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LEADING THE DAY 

MIDDLE EAST  

Israel’s government early today approved a brief cease-fire in Gaza if Hamas releases 50 of the estimated 240 hostages it captured during its assault last month on Israel, The New York Times and other media outlets reported. Among those to be released are three Americans, including two women and a 3-year-old child whose birthday is Friday (The Hill). 

President Biden, referring to the fragility of a wartime commitment to an “extended pause” and thanking those leaders by name who helped negotiate it, said the U.S. will remain “in close contact as we work to ensure this deal is carried through in its entirety. It is important that all aspects of this deal be fully implemented.” The president did not describe the number of Americans, presumably dual citizens, who are poised to be freed. “I will not stop until they are all released,” he said.  

THE AGREEMENT by the Israelis after weeks of negotiations involving Qatar as an intermediary with Hamas did not make immediately clear when 50 women and children held hostage in Gaza would begin to be freed and swapped for an agreed upon number of Palestinian women and minors held in Israel’s prisons. Qatar later said the start time is to be announced within 24 hours and confirmed the lull is to last four days. 

Israeli judges are required to review potential legal challenges to the prisoner release, according to Israeli officials, meaning an agreement cannot be enacted until Thursday at the earliest. 

Israel said it supports “the outline for the first stage,” during which Hamas would release women and children abducted on Oct. 7 in waves over four days, backed by a lull in Israel’s fighting. “The release of every 10 additional abductees will result in an additional day of respite,” the government said. 

The Wednesday decision, announced by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office in a WhatsApp message, includes a pause of at least four days in the fighting in Gaza. If it holds, it would be the longest halt in hostilities since Hamas’s attacks prompted Israel’s attacks on Gaza with the goal of eradicating Hamas. Netanyahu has stated for weeks that Israel’s military assaults and pressure on Hamas are key to getting surviving hostages out of Gaza. 

The prime minister emphasized Tuesday as talks continued that Israel’s war against the militant fighters would not halt after a lull period, which is intended to allow hostages to exit safely to Israeli hospitals for care after their captivity, and international delivery into Gaza of humanitarian supplies including fuel (The Associated Press). 

Vice President Harris called on Hamas to release all the hostages and said in a Tuesday statement that she welcomed “the commitment that Israel has made to support an extended pause to ensure this deal can be fully carried out and to ensure additional humanitarian assistance reaches civilians in Gaza. The flow of aid must substantially increase and civilians must be protected.”  

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ZOOM IN 

POLITICS 

In Tuesday’s Utah special House election, Republican Celeste Maloy defeated  Democratic candidate Kathleen Riebe by more than 20 points to succeed Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Utah), who retired. The returns will be certified next week.  

‘Tis the season for House retirements. Rep. Bill Johnson (R-Ohio) said Tuesday he will retire from Congress within months and begin work as president of Youngstown State University, Roll Call and Mahoning Matters reported. His seat is expected to remain Republican. 

The Iowa caucuses are less than two months away, and Republican candidates are preparing their final pitches to voters. Ahead of the fourth GOP debate in Tuscaloosa, Ala., on Dec. 6, hosted by NewsNation, here are The Hill’s latest rankings in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. (The Hill and NewsNation are part of Nexstar Media Group.) 

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COURTS & LAW 

Maryland cannot enforce a law requiring people to obtain a license before they can buy a handgun, the 4th Circuit Court of Appeals ruled on Tuesday. The state’s law required people who want to buy a handgun to first complete steps such as submitting fingerprints for a background investigation and taking a firearms safety training course. In a 2-1 opinion, Circuit Court Judge Julius N. Richardson wrote that the law cannot stand under a landmark Supreme Court decision holding that a firearm regulation is unconstitutional unless the government can show it is consistent with the nation’s historical tradition (The Baltimore Banner). 

“The challenged law restricts the ability of law-abiding adult citizens to possess handguns, and the state has not presented a historical analogue that justifies its restriction; indeed, it has seemingly admitted that it couldn’t find one,” Richardson wrote. “Under the Supreme Court’s new burden-shifting test for these claims, Maryland’s law thus fails, and we must enjoin its enforcement.” 

The Associated Press: In Michigan, thieves stole more than 100 guns from a store after they forced the manager at gunpoint outside his home to reveal how to turn off the store’s alarm. Authorities said Tuesday the guns were likely intended for quick illegal sales on the street. Police arrested two suspects and recovered all but one weapon.  

Eccentric (some say chaotic) billionaire tech mogul Elon Musk made good on a promise late Monday to file a “thermonuclear” lawsuit against Media Matters for America, the progressive watchdog with which he has been feuding. The Hill’s Dominick Mastrangelo writes the suit, filed in Texas, comes on the heels of a Media Matters report that outlined how the Musk-owned platform X, formerly known as Twitter, places advertising next to harmful content. The Media Matters report has sparked an exodus of advertisers from X. 

👉 A group of 27 Democratic lawmakers wrote to Musk on Tuesday to express concern the platform seemed to be profiting from premium accounts that glorified violence against Israelis. 

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ELSEWHERE 

ENVIRONMENT 

♻️ DON’T REDUCE, BUT REUSE AND RECYCLE: A major international plastic treaty has ended in confusion and deadlock — and global anti-plastics campaigners say it’s the results of a calculated push by fossil fuel producers to blunt progress toward meaningful steps at ending the production of single-use plastics. At a U.N. conference in Nairobi, Kenya, Saudi Arabia and China joined trade groups such as the American Chemistry Council to fight the idea of in any way limiting the production of plastics. Instead, The Hill’s Saul Elbein reports, the petrochemical groups have proposed that production bans or limits are unnecessary — holding out the hope of a “circular economy” in which waste plastic is indefinitely reused to form new plastic products.   

THE UNITED NATIONS’S ANNUAL CLIMATE CONFERENCE kicks off Nov. 30 in Dubai, and world leaders will have to tackle two big issues: the planet is heading toward climate disaster, and governments are acting too slowly to avert the crisis. 

Diplomats and heads of state and government from nearly 200 countries will gather to try to draft a plan to accelerate the global transition away from fossil fuels. At last year’s summit in Egypt, attending countries agreed to establish a fund to help poor, vulnerable nations cope with climate disasters. But they made little progress in terms of cutting those emissions. This year the United Arab Emirates, the world’s fifth-largest oil producer, is hosting the COP28 climate talks — a fact that has drawn the anger of many activists (The New York Times).  

The Washington Post: The United Arab Emirates, host of COP28, is building solar projects that could power a small city. It is also ramping up its oil production capacity like never before. 

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OPINION 

■ The Trump threat is growing. Lawyers must rise to meet this moment, by George Conway, J. Michael Luttig and Barbara Comstock, opinion contributors, The New York Times. 

■ Four policy fixes to address the paradigm shift at the southern border, by Theresa Cardinal Brown, opinion contributor, The Hill. 

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THE CLOSER 

And finally …  ☀️ Be thankful. It’s not all bad news this year, especially if you’re a wood stork. As Americans wring their hands about everything from planetary decay to aged leaders and global doom, all is not lost.  

The Endangered Species Act turned 50 this year and one bright spot in the Florida Everglades and the South is the aforementioned white bird, which was on the brink of extinction in 1984 and might now come off the endangered species list because of the restoration of its habitat. 

Carbon emissions declined in the U.S. by as much as 3 percent in 2023, according to a pair of recent analyses — reversing two years of flat or increasing output of planet-warming pollution. Even tiny progress is progress. 

Recession — what recession? Not this year. (Do economists know anything, really?) 

For many, many millions of people, the COVID-19 crisis eased in 2023. About time. Another bright spot for wellbeing: More Americans had health insurance in the first quarter this year than in the comparable period in 2022. 

If the future is hanging in the balance, as so many believe in the U.S., it’s good to know that younger voters are in the spotlight at the moment. Because of them, there will be 8 million more people in this country eligible to vote next November. And they say they have a lot on their minds. 

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