Morning Report — An urgent new push for Ukraine aid   

President Biden this afternoon will urge congressional leaders during an Oval Office meeting to back his languishing request to send Ukraine and Israel more aid and tighten immigration and border security, as proposed by Republicans. 

In an election year, and while former President Trump is outpacing the incumbent in recent polls, it’s unlikely that an accord will suddenly materialize that would satisfy politically skewed parties. Months of warnings about Russia’s threats, Ukraine’s defense needs, Israel’s predicament in Gaza and the administration’s insistence that the border is not a crisis have gone nowhere. 

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has his hands full bucking his conservative colleagues. He’s eager to avert a partial government shutdown later this week by linking arms with House Democrats to gain a temporary funding extension into March. At the moment, Johnson is defying the hard-line tactics of the Freedom Caucus, perhaps at his own peril as Speaker. 

The Hill: The Senate on Tuesday took the first step to advance a measure to prevent a partial shutdown by temporarily pushing the funding debate into March. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) would like to pass it with bipartisan backing on Thursday.  

Johnson says he supports additional U.S. military and economic assistance to Kyiv on condition that Democrats back U.S. border security changes, reports The Hill’s Al Weaver. But Democrats have opposed such leveraging. Johnson suggests Ukraine funding is dead on arrival in the House without the border adjustments, a potential congressional blockade. It’s a serious blow to Ukraine and its defense of its territory against Russia. 

In Switzerland on Tuesday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken promised strong and “enduring” U.S. support for Ukraine while he joins an annual world forum in Davos attended by President Volodymyr Zelensky. As the VIP guest from Kyiv worked to rally support among government and private-sector power brokers gathered in the Swiss Alps, the secretary and White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan advocated for “global assistance to support Ukraine as it fights for its freedom and sovereignty,” even as Congress sends ominous messages abroad that undermine the translations of “strong and enduring.” 

“[If] anyone thinks this is only about us, this is only about Ukraine, they are fundamentally mistaken,” Zelensky said Tuesday. “Possible directions and even timeline of a new Russian aggression beyond Ukraine become more and more obvious.” 

French President Emmanuel Macron during a news conference in Paris Tuesday added that he plans to travel next month to Ukraine to finalize a security agreement with the government in Kyiv. France will deliver more long-range cruise missiles as well as bombs to Ukraine, Macron said, which fortifies a recent pledge from the U.K. for more than $3 billion in help for Ukraine, a record. 

“We cannot let Russia win,” Macron added. 

---

---

LEADING THE DAY 

POLITICS 

TRUMP ROMPED TO A VICTORY IN IOWA, but he will face a different challenge in next week’s New Hampshire primary. The Hill’s Brett Samuels reports polling had for months shown Trump was on track to coast to a win in Iowa, which he did on Monday night with 51 percent of the vote. But roughly half the electorate still backed an alternative, and a variety of factors will make New Hampshire tougher terrain for the former president. Independents will be able to vote in next Tuesday’s primary, and the Granite State has a far different electorate from the deeply conservative and evangelical Iowa. Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who finished third in Iowa, has spent more time in New Hampshire, where she has seen her poll numbers climb in recent weeks.  

The New York Times: After Iowa, Trump is back to command the national psyche. He never actually left. 

“I think if she beats him in New Hampshire it creates a lot of uncertainty,” said Alex Conant, who worked on Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R-Fla.) 2016 presidential campaign. “It would be a massive story.” 

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is trying to identify a path forward after departing Iowa in a distant second place behind Trump. His campaign has money and staffing problems, The Wall Street Journal opined that he should bow out and the early primary states don’t favor his odds of defeating Trump for the nomination. The Hill’s Julia Manchester and Caroline Vakil explain why the Sunshine State governor faces an uphill climb in New Hampshire on Jan. 23 and South Carolina next month, states in which most polls show him coming in a distant third.  

DeSantis warned in a CNN town hall Tuesday night that Republicans are “going to lose” the 2024 election if they nominate Trump. 

“If Donald Trump is the nominee, the election will revolve around all these legal issues,” DeSantis said. “We’re going to lose if that’s the decision voters are making based on that. We don’t want it to be a referendum on those issues.” 

“Realistically, it’s going to get late very early the day after New Hampshire,” said Jim Merrill, a New Hampshire-based Republican strategist. “I think it’s going to be for everyone not named Trump, and that includes Haley, it’s going to take some clear eye on what the path forward is.”  

Haley, meanwhile, has returned her attention to New Hampshire with some spin, writes The Hill’s Julia Mueller. “The pundits will analyze the results from every angle. But when you look at how we are doing in New Hampshire, in South Carolina, and beyond, I think we can safely say: Tonight, Iowa made this Republican primary a two-person race!” Haley said in remarks after the results rolled in.  

The Hill: Haley defended her statement that Iowa voters made New Hampshire a two-person GOP contest between herself and Trump. 

---

---

ZOOM IN 

INTERNATIONAL 

ISRAEL AND HAMAS REACHED AN AGREEMENT to allow medicines to be delivered to Israeli captives held in Gaza and for aid to be transported to residents in the Palestinian territory, Qatar announced Tuesday. The deal will see humanitarian aid delivered to civilians in “the most affected and vulnerable areas” in Gaza in exchange for the delivery of medication to Israeli captives held by Hamas (Al Jazeera). At least one of the planes carrying the medicines landed in Egypt Wednesday morning, according to Israeli media reports. 

Israel has for months demanded that medications be delivered to the more than 100 hostages still in Hamas captivity. The deal, brokered by Qatar and France, will also include the transfer of medicines to the most vulnerable areas for civilians in Gaza, where 15 hospitals are partially functioning and the health system is quickly collapsing as the fighting continues to rage (The Washington Post). 

Conflicts among Israel’s war cabinet are spilling into public view, threatening to undermine the country’s military strategy in Gaza. The small group of wartime decision makers — Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and former head of the Israeli military, Benny Gantz — is diverging publicly on the two biggest dilemmas they face: whether Israel should negotiate to end the conflict and free the hostages, and who should govern the enclave once the war is over (The Wall Street Journal). 

CLASHES WITH IRANIAN-BACKED MILITIA GROUPS in the Middle East are testing the Biden administration’s relations with the Iraqi government, with Baghdad reviving calls for American troops to leave the country as the ongoing fighting turns Iraq back into a warzone, writes The Hill’s Brad Dress. Iran carried out a strike this week in Iraq that it claimed hit an Israeli spy base, further threatening to escalate tensions in the region as Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani pushes for the removal of the roughly 2,500 American soldiers in his country. Washington said it has no plans to leave Iraq, but if al-Sudani follows through on his commitment, the U.S. will have no choice but to leave.  

FOREIGN TERROR LIST: The Biden administration is expected to re-designate Yemen’s Houthis a foreign terrorist organization in response to the Iranian-backed group’s increased attacks against Israel and on commercial shipping in the region, CNN reports.  

But The Hill’s Laura Kelly writes such a move is steeped in controversy. Biden would be reverting to a last-minute Trump administration policy that the current administration rescinded in response to fears that it would block international aid groups and businesses from serving Yemen’s population, which is suffering one of the worst man-made humanitarian crises in the world. The administration has also worked hard to implement a ceasefire between the Houthis and the internationally recognized Yemeni amid a nearly 10-year civil war. But the Houthis’ attacks in the region are raising pressure on the White House to move beyond counter-strikes on military targets, and to instead isolate the group on the international stage.  

CNN: The latest Houthi missile attack demonstrates the limited scope of U.S.-led airstrikes in Yemen. 

👉 The European Central Bank is “likely” to cut interest rates this summer, President Christine Lagarde told Bloomberg Television during an interview.  

---

ELSEWHERE 

COURTS 

TRUMP WENT ON A POSTING SPREE on Truth Social on Tuesday targeting writer E. Jean Carroll as he attended a defamation trial in New York City, where a jury will determine how much Trump must pay for defaming a longtime advice columnist. After arriving at the Manhattan courthouse, he posted more than a dozen times on Truth Social attacking Carroll and dismissing her claims that he sexually assaulted her decades ago. 

Trump called on the judge to end the case, claiming he had been wrongly accused by Carroll, whom Trump described as a “woman seeking fame, fortune, and publicity for her ridiculous Book!” Last year, a jury concluded Trump sexually abused Carroll in the mid-1990s at a New York City department store and later defamed her, awarding Carroll $5 million. Trump vehemently denies her claims. 

Now, Carroll is taking Trump to civil trial again. This time, she seeks at least $10 million in damages for Trump’s denials when the former “Elle” columnist first came forward publicly with her claims in 2019 (The Hill). Trump is not obligated to be in the courtroom, but he has been trying to make his legal troubles into campaign talking points. In the Republican primary, that approach has worked for him, with the civil and criminal indictments propelling his fund-raising and consolidating his support among a party base that sees him as being unfairly persecuted (The New York Times). 

Shawn Crowley, a lawyer for Carroll, told the jury on Tuesday that Trump “used the world’s biggest microphone to attack Ms. Carroll, to humiliate her and to destroy her reputation” (Politico). 

“He keeps doing it,” Crowley said. “He sat in this courthouse — you saw him — and while he was sitting here, he posted more defamatory statements. More lies about Ms. Carroll and this case. By our last count, 22 posts just today. Think about that when you consider how much money it will take to get him to stop.” 

---

OPINION 

■ Team Biden needs a reset on Israel, by Daniel Levy, guest essayist, The New York Times. 

■ Iowa nudged the nation closer to a revolting rematch next fall, by George F. Will, columnist, The Washington Post.  

---

THE CLOSER 

And finally … ☃️ Flurries have piled up in the nation’s capital, prompting a snow day Tuesday for D.C.-area schoolchildren and federal workers and delayed arrivals today. Bundled-up District residents flocked to the Capitol and the National Mall for snowball fights, sledding and snow sculpture-building. 

A last-minute snowball battle took place in the white fluff between the National Gallery of Art and the Air & Space Museum, hosted by the “Washington DC Snowball Fight Association,” which uses its social media missives to share news of the fun. Dubbed the Battle of Snowpenheimer, it was the 16th such snowball fight planned by the group since 2010 (WJLA and FOX 5). 

---

Stay Engaged 

We want to hear from you! Email: Alexis Simendinger (asimendinger@digital-release.thehill.com) and Kristina Karisch (kkarisch@digital-release.thehill.com). Follow us on X, formerly known as Twitter: (@asimendinger and @kristinakarisch) and suggest this newsletter to friends!