Morning Report — Johnson digs in his heels over border deal 

by Alexis Simendinger and Kristina Karisch - 01/18/24 6:30 AM ET

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All eyes are on Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.).

Following a Wednesday meeting at the White House with President Biden and other congressional leaders, pressure is mounting on Johnson to accept an expected deal on Ukraine funding and border security. Security experts briefed Johnson and other leaders about the dire situation faced by Ukraine, warning national security is at risk without action by Congress. But Johnson said after the Wednesday meeting that his position on a border deal has not changed.

“We must have change at the border,” Johnson said, adding that House Republicans “understand the necessity about Ukraine funding” but that the “status quo is unacceptable.”

The New York Times: Johnson suggested Wednesday that a border deal, even one that met all the Republicans’ demands, might not be enough to win their support for funding Ukraine’s war effort against Russia. He insisted that the administration provide other guarantees and accountability measures.

While Senate leaders are feeling increasingly confident about finalizing their own Ukraine funding and border security package in the next few days, they acknowledge they don’t know whether it can pass the House. Still, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) told reporters Wednesday he thinks the chances are more than 50 percent that there will be a deal for supplemental funding that covers border security, Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and humanitarian aid to Gaza (CNBC and Roll Call).

“The only way we will do border and Ukraine, or even either of them, is bipartisan,” Schumer said. “Any party that says do it my way or no way, we’re not going to get anything done.”

THE SENATE’S PRIORITY today is a vote on a government funding stopgap bill, and Schumer said he hopes to move supplemental funding “soon” after that if there’s a bipartisan agreement. With snow forecasted in Washington on Friday, senators will be feeling a sense of urgency to get the votes done ahead of their weekend — and travel plans (The Hill).

The Hill: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is urging Congress to quickly pass legislation to keep the government funded beyond a looming Friday shutdown deadline. 

Republican critics of the expected deal argue that it doesn’t go far enough to stop the flow of hundreds of thousands of migrants across the U.S.-Mexico border, but administration officials warn waiting longer to pass military aid for Ukraine and Israel will have serious consequences. The White House and Democrats are getting backup from Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who says the United States faces the most serious international situation since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. 

TBD: McConnell told reporters he expects the emergency spending package, which would include border security reforms, to reach the Senate floor next week.  

“I don’t know what the House will do, but what we’re working on is trying to get a package out of the Senate that deals with national security and border security in a credible way,” McConnell said Wednesday. 

THE HOUSE APPROVED a resolution condemning Biden’s border and immigration policies Wednesday, a move by GOP lawmakers to maintain pressure on the politically polarizing issue in the weeks ahead. The legislation pins singular blame on Biden’s “open-border policies” for conditions at the U.S.-Mexico border, highlighting the stark partisanship behind immigration and border policy. It passed 225-187, with 14 Democrats voting in favor (The Hill).

The Hill: These 14 Democrats voted for a GOP resolution denouncing Biden’s open-border policies.

3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY:

▪ The Supreme Court’s conservatives appear inclined to curb the regulatory power of federal agencies. Several justices during a pair of arguments Wednesday sounded ready to overrule a legal doctrine that has bolstered agencies’ authority for decades.

▪ Pakistan on Thursday struck inside Iran with missiles aimed at militant targets, stoking regional tension and killing a reported nine people. The strike comes after Iran in recent days hit targets in Pakistan, Iraq and Syria with missiles.

▪ In the troubled commercial real estate market, more than $2.2 trillion in debt is maturing before 2028 and much of that will have to be refinanced at higher rates.

Jamie vs. Jamie: The House Oversight Committee is leading a presidential impeachment inquiry, which pits Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) against the committee’s top Democrat, Rep. Jamie Raskin (Md.). The Hill’s Rebecca Beitsch explains the stark stylistic and ideological differences between the two lawmakers amid a 2024 proxy battle that’s all about the next president.

LEADING THE DAY

© The Associated Press / Michael Dwyer | Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis campaigned in Hampton, N.H., ahead of the Republican presidential primary Wednesday..

POLITICS

Perhaps Nikki Haley made a mistake in blowing off debates in New Hampshire before Tuesday’s primary, according to veterans of presidential campaigns and at least one New Hampshire political expert.

Although she may have been correct after Monday’s Iowa caucuses that a two-candidate GOP contest with former President Trump was theoretically possible, that’s not how she’s campaigning.

As Trump coasted out of Iowa with a record-setting 51 percent of the vote, some 52 percent of likely New Hampshire GOP primary voters said they support the former president for the nomination, according to the latest survey sponsored by the Saint Anselm College Survey Center.

Haley — who came in third behind Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in Iowa (both challengers were about 30 points behind Trump) — promptly flew to the Granite State, canceled her planned debates with DeSantis and declared she would only spar on stage with either Trump or Biden. CNN on Wednesday joined ABC News by canceling the events due to lack of participation.

The New York Times: Shake-up by a desperate DeSantis opens a wider path for Haley in New Hampshire. 

The former South Carolina governor may have knocked DeSantis off his build-momentum-after-Iowa game plan. But New Hampshire was never going to be the next pearl in the Sunshine State governor’s primary strand. Short on campaign funds and struggling to find a persuasive narrative to bypass Trump as a Trump-esque alternative, DeSantis is decamping with staff to the Palmetto State this weekend, hoping to stir up enough conservative traction ahead of the South Carolina primary next month to stay in the race.

Haley, who is from South Carolina but faces tough competition to beat front-runner Trump there, may have undercut her chances to appeal to New Hampshire voters with something beyond her observations that Trump is a chaotic figure. For months she skirted taking Trump on, and she has not altered her messaging since Monday, even as she eschewed debating DeSantis.

“She needs every debate she can get and she needs to win them,” said Mike Murphy, a veteran GOP political media consultant and outspoken Trump critic. “Somebody needs to grab her by the pastel lapels and say, ‘Stop thinking you’re protecting something. There’s nothing to protect here. You’re going down the drain. You’ve got to grab every debate and win every moment,’” he added Tuesday during the “Hacks on Tap” podcast.

New Hampshire Institute of Politics Executive Director Neil Levesque said, “Haley still trails by a significant margin as she faces questions about her decision to skip the New Hampshire Debate, which may deny her the best remaining chance to close the deal with the voters she needs to make up ground on the front runner.” 

The Hill’s Niall Stanage notes that “at the root of all these tussles is a simple calculation of risk and reward.”

Trump, who boycotted primary debates without injury this cycle, prompts questions about the relevancy and utility of live televised candidate sparring. But Haley was an example of a candidate who reaped rewards and climbed in polls as more voters favorably appraised her debate performances, Stanage notes. 

2024 ROUNDUP:

▪ Never Back Down, the cash-starved super PAC supporting DeSantis, began layoffs Wednesday as the Florida governor chases Trump while searching for a strategy to remain in the race.

▪ AdImpact Politics anticipates $10.2 billion will be spent on political advertising during the 2024 cycle, which would result in the most expensive election in U.S. history. How has campaign financing changed since the Citizens United Supreme Court decision? Let’s count the 10 billion ways.

▪ Speaking of money, when Trump wins, Biden’s campaign does, too, apparently. The president’s reelection team said it received $1.6 million in grassroots donations following Trump’s 51 percent victory in the Iowa caucuses Monday.

▪ Biden’s reelection campaign may benefit from some never-Trump Republicans.

▪ In politics, fear sells. On ABC’s “The View” on Wednesday, Vice President Harris said she was “scared as heck” when asked about the prospects of Trump’s return to the White House.

▪ Trump-Biden challengers seize on the Iowa caucus results as an argument to stop a rematch ahead of November.

▪ Veepstakes: “She’s a killer,” Trump said last month, speaking to associates about Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.).

▪ Former Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) wants to flip the New York House seat once held by former Republican Rep. George Santos. Democrats say they’re hopeful.

▪ U.S. District Court Judge John Tuchi blocked Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes from recognizing candidates who want to run using the No Labels ballot line without its approval.

▪ Swatting pranks are an evolving political weapon. Experts believe such incidents that target public officials will increase as Trump’s various trials and the 2024 election ramp up. “Like a lot of things that become normal and weaponized, [swattings] are sort of trolling tactics,” said Oren Segal, vice president of the Anti-Defamation League’s Center on Extremism.

▪ An Ohio election law makes it harder for transgender individuals competing for seats in the state Legislature to get on ballots. A second trans candidate ran into trouble getting on the ballot in the state.   

WHERE AND WHEN

The House meets at 10 a.m.

The Senate will convene at 11 a.m. It will vote at 12:30 p.m. on a stopgap spending measure that would extend government funding into March for Agriculture, Transportation, Veterans’ Affairs, Energy and more, with consideration of three Republican amendments and a manager’s amendment. The goal is to send the measure to the House tonight for speedy consideration before midnight Friday.

The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 10 a.m. Biden will fly to North Carolina to deliver an official Bidenomics speech at 2:15 p.m. in Raleigh, then return to the White House tonight.

The vice president will speak at 2 p.m. ET during the annual U.S. Conference of Mayors winter meeting in Washington during a moderated conversation about urban gun violence prevention. Kansas City, Mo., Mayor Quinton Lucas (D) will be the moderator.

The Justice Department today will release its critical incident review of the law enforcement response to the mass shootings at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde, Texas, in May 2022, which resulted in the deaths of 19 children and two teachers. (Attorney General Merrick Garland on Wednesday met in Uvalde with relatives of the victims ahead of the report’s release.) 

First lady Jill Biden is in California where she will fly from Burbank to Santa Rosa this afternoon to speak at a reelection fundraising event at 3:30 p.m. PT in Healdsburg.

Second gentleman Doug Emhoff is in Switzerland. He will start his day in a Davos eatery, location of a gender equity conversation hosted by The Female Quotient. He’ll address antisemitism during a session of the World Economic Forum held at the Congress Centre at 3 p.m. local time. About 90 minutes later, Emhoff will join a roundtable with corporate leaders at the Steigenberger Icon Belvedere Hotel focused on the topic of combating hate. This evening in Davos, Emhoff will meet with Israeli President Isaac Herzog and first lady Michal Herzog at the AlpenGold Hotel. 

ZOOM IN

© The Associated Press / Seth Wenig | Former President Trump, the front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination, appeared in New York on Wednesday on his way to court for his civil defamation trial.

TRUMP WORLD

A New York federal judge threatened to kick Trump out of his courtroom Wednesday for being “disruptive” during a trial proceeding determining how much he owes writer E. Jean Carroll for defaming her after she alleged he raped her (The Hill).

“Mr. Trump has the right to be present here. That right can be forfeited, and it can be forfeited if he is disruptive, which what has been reported to me consists of, and if he disregards court orders,” U.S. District Judge Lewis A. Kaplan said Wednesday, according to CNN. “Mr. Trump, I hope I don’t have to consider excluding you from the trial. I understand you’re probably eager for me to do that.”

“I would love it,” Trump replied, according to several outlets. The judge’s warning to Trump followed a complaint from Carroll’s lawyer that Trump disregarded orders from the judge to “keep his voice down” and had continued making comments about the case audible to jurors, including that the trial is a “witch hunt” and “con job.”

CNN: A Maine judge on Wednesday told state election officials to wait for the Supreme Court to rule on Trump’s eligibility for the 2024 presidential ballot.

SALACIOUS ACCUSATIONS that Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis (D) hired a romantic partner as a top prosecutor in Trump’s criminal racketeering case added fuel to attacks from Republicans as well as Trump and co-defendants. The Hill’s Zach Schonfeld and Ella Lee report the accusation first surfaced last week in court papers filed by Mike Roman, a Trump 2020 campaign operative who is one of the former president’s co-defendants, although it did not contain any proof of the alleged relationship. More than a week later, Willis has not denied the claims — and neither has the prosecutor in question, Nathan Wade. Over the weekend, Willis appeared to respond to the accusation for the first time, not referencing Wade by name but calling him a “great friend” and seemingly defending his hiring. Willis also called out Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) after she demanded a criminal investigation, saying her spirit is “filled with hate.”

ELSEWHERE

© The Associated Press / Markus Schreiber | Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Wednesday.

INTERNATIONAL

GLOBAL CHALLENGES: Secretary of State Antony Blinken told business and political leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Wednesday he could not think of a time in his career when there had been more global challenges, ranging from war in Gaza and Ukraine to tensions over Taiwan. He said that almost none of the problems that the administration wanted to address could be tackled in isolation (Reuters).

Blinken said Wednesday that Israel cannot achieve “genuine security” without a pathway to a Palestinian state, insisting such a move could help unify the Middle East and isolate Israel’s top rival: Iran. The secretary said the views of leaders in the Arab and Muslim world have changed on Israel and the creation of a Palestinian state would help Israel integrate in the region.

“The problem is getting from here to there, and of course, it requires very difficult, challenging decisions,” Blinken said. “It requires a mindset that is open to that perspective.”

CNN: Blinken’s Boeing 737 out of Davos had a critical failure. He had to switch planes.

TERROR DESIGNATION: The Biden administration is pursuing a narrow definition of designating Yemen’s Houthis as a terrorist organization, pushing back on calls to label the Iranian-backed military group as a broader, foreign terrorist organization under pressure from Congress. The U.S. will designate the Houthis as a Specially Designated Terrorist Group, in response to attacks the group launched against international commercial shipping in the Red Sea, and what the Houthis say is a response to Israel’s war against Hamas. Senior administration officials briefing reporters Tuesday night on the move said the designation gives the administration more flexibility in preserving humanitarian aid and commercial goods to Yemen — where the population has faced famine and conflict (The Hill). 

Hazem al-Assad, a member of the Houthis, said in a statement that the group would not be intimidated by the United States and that the designation would not affect its operations (The New York Times). For the fourth time in a week, the U.S. struck Houthi military sites in Yemen on Wednesday, the Pentagon’s Central Command said, the latest in a series of back-and-forth exchanges (NPR).

▪ Al Jazeera: Biden is “playing with fire” by redesignating Yemen’s Houthis as terrorists, experts say.

▪ The New York Times: Faced with falling births, China’s efforts to stabilize a shrinking population and maintain economic growth are failing.

▪ NPR: Britain’s King Charles III is to undergo a “corrective procedure” for an enlarged prostate gland, Buckingham Palace said on Wednesday, just hours after it also announced that Catherine, the Princess of Wales, was recovering after undergoing planned abdominal surgery.

HIGHER EDUCATION 

🏈 University of Michigan head football coach Jim Harbaugh, after a championship win last week, said college athletes should be able to unionize. The Hill’s Lexi Lonas reports his comments mark one of the most prominent endorsements for the idea in years. Discussions on college athlete unionization are not new but with the rise of name, image and likeness deals and revenue-sharing for athletes, some think it is only a matter of time before at least some college athletes can band together. 

“I think the cultural winds are shifting here with a lot of administrative stakeholders and coaches are going to be moving in the direction of Coach Harbaugh,” said Jason Stahl, founder and executive director of College Football Players Association. He points out that Harbaugh is the first coach to ever come out in support of the unions.

▪ Forbes: The NCAA proposes a radical shift in college sports in which athletes can be paid. Here’s how it could work.

▪ CNN: A new poll reveals a generational divide among Black Americans when it comes to the impact of the Supreme Court’s decision overturning affirmative action in higher education.

▪ The New York Times: The next battle in higher education may strike at its soul: scholarship. Cases involving Stanford and Harvard universities and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology fueled skepticism about the thoroughness of scholarly research — even from the academic world’s biggest stars.

OPINION

■ North Korea doesn’t want reunification — or war, by James Stavridis, columnist, Bloomberg Opinion. 

■ As if we didn’t have enough to frighten us … North Korea is acting in highly unusual ways, by Nicholas Kristof, columnist, The New York Times.

THE CLOSER

© The Associated Press / Robert F. Bukaty | Lovely Chatham, N.H., in 2016. The state’s GOP presidential primary is Tuesday.

Take Our Morning Report Quiz

And finally … It’s Thursday, which means it’s time for this week’s Morning Report Quiz! Adrift in presidential campaigning, we’re eager for some smart guesses about the New Hampshire primary.

Email your responses to asimendinger@digital-release.thehill.com and kkarisch@digital-release.thehill.com — please add “Quiz” to your subject line. Winners who submit correct answers will enjoy some richly deserved newsletter fame on Friday.

Who recently predicted that candidate Nikki Haley “is gonna get smoked” in the New Hampshire primary?

Vivek Ramaswamy

Chris Christie

Donald Trump

Asa Hutchinson

Stretching back to 1980, the New Hampshire GOP primary has a _______ percent record of picking winners who have gone on to become the party’s presidential nominees, according to reporting last week.

10.5

28.6

71.4

99.8

Who had a famously emotional reaction to a voter’s question while campaigning for president in New Hampshire, responding with welling eyes, “You know, this is very personal for me. It’s not just political. It’s not just public. I see what’s happening, and we have to reverse it. And some people think elections are a game. They think it’s like who’s up or who’s down. It’s about our country. It’s about our kids’ futures. It’s really about all of us together. You know some of us put ourselves out there and do this against some pretty difficult odds. And we do it, each one of us, because we care about our country. But some of us are right and some of us are wrong. Some of us are ready and some of us are not.”

Barack Obama

Hillary Clinton

Robert Dole

Paul Tsongas

In a letter this month, who described the New Hampshire primary as “meaningless,” (prompting the Granite State’s Republican attorney general to rise to its defense)?