The political world agrees that Thursday’s debate between President Biden and former President Trump has a lot riding on it.
Ninety long minutes. Two presidents, both suffering from ho-hum support in the polls, competing in a close contest. Distinctly different presentational styles. Big contrasts on issues. Lots of hostile history between the two.
But here’s a question: Can a presidential candidate “win” a debate and lose an election, or put another way, can the “loser” of a debate win on Nov. 5? Of course. Just ask 2004 Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry and former President George W. Bush. Kerry did not improve his favorability, despite generally high marks for his debate performance in September that year.
Biden will remain at Camp David this week to prepare with his top advisers until traveling to debate city Atlanta on Thursday. Trump’s prep is public. He prefers to experiment with improvised lines and theatrical flourishes during rallies and events to internalize supporters’ (and news media) reactions.
CNN, host of the first of two presidential debates, will not have a debate audience and both candidates agreed to that format. The former president will need to gather his radar soundings Thursday from Biden and the moderators, CNN anchors Jake Tapper and Dana Bash.
Republicans who want to see their party in charge in Washington in 2025 want Trump to think back to his first debate with Biden in 2020 to make some course corrections. He interrupted and hectored. Biden, exasperated, finally said what debate viewers appeared to be thinking: “Will you shut up, man? … This is so unpresidential.”
Trump toned it down for their next matchup.
“Don’t take the bait,” Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) advised during a recent interview with The Hill.
“Demeanor is important, tone is important. I think you can be decisive and strong, as [Trump] is, but I think in many ways you want to give President Biden as much rope as possible because I don’t think that probably is going to play well for him,” the senator added.
The buildup ahead of the candidates’ jousting remains a news media ritual, as are the pre- and post-debate spin cycles staged by the two major parties. Democrats have a pre-debate plan to mobilize supporters this week across key states, including Georgia, using watch parties, grassroots meetups, community barbecues, news conferences with officials and surrogates, plus celebrity appearances, according to the Biden campaign. Biden will head Friday to Raleigh, N.C., for a rally and to New York City for official and fundraising events. Vice President Harris will campaign in swing state Nevada the same day and headline campaign events in Park City, Utah, and Los Angeles. Surrogates will appear in several battleground states.
Trump, who said Saturday he has already picked his running mate without telling his nominee, will appear in key states later this week accompanied by officials he’s publicly mentioned as supporters and favorites.
The former president will campaign Friday accompanied by Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) in Chesapeake, Va., a first for the two men in this election cycle. Biden, who beat Trump by more than 10 points in the state in 2020, is in a dead heat with the former president in Virginia, according to recent polls. Here’s why Trump would like to win Virginia.
▪ The New York Times: A debate rematch with even greater risks and rewards.
▪ The New Yorker: What can we expect from the Biden-Trump debate?
▪ The Wall Street Journal, analysis: We rewatched the 2020 Trump-Biden debates. Here’s what we learned.
▪ The Washington Post, analysis: Let’s see if a debate can change the trajectory of voter sentiment.
3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY
▪ 💊 Americans are being fleeced by pharmacy benefit managers. In the first of a series of investigative reports about drug pricing, The New York Times reveals the often-hidden impacts of PBMs on patients, employers and the government.
▪ Apple and Meta have discussed an AI partnership. Given how much the two companies have been at loggerheads over other emerging tech issues, such a deal would be noteworthy.
▪ The Justice Department should criminally charge Boeing for violating a settlement involving two fatal crashes, prosecutors have recommended ahead of a July 7 deadline.
LEADING THE DAY
© The Associated Press / Adam Bettcher | Vice President Harris, pictured in March in Minnesota, is campaigning for reproductive rights.
MORE IN POLITICS
REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS: The Biden campaign’s focus today is to blame the former president for the Supreme Court’s ruling two years ago that ended the federal right to abortion.
“Donald Trump is the sole person responsible for this nightmare. For him, these cruel state bans are a ‘beautiful thing to watch’ – and they’re just beginning,” Biden said in a campaign statement.
His campaign plans more than 50 events in battleground states and beyond to mark the high court’s ruling two years ago. Vice President Harris, interviewed by MSNBC, says “everything is at stake” for reproductive rights on Nov. 5.
And House Democrats launched an opening salvo in what promises to be a week filled with abortion-related messaging by targeting five swing-district Republicans who praised the overturning of Roe: Reps. Michelle Steel (Calif.), Nick LaLota (N.Y.), Brandon Williams (N.Y.), Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Ore.) and Scott Perry (Pa.) (Axios).
A new coalition of abortion-rights groups — including Planned Parenthood and the ACLU — is marking the anniversary with a pledge to spend $100 million to restore federal protections for the procedure and make it more accessible than ever before.
Meanwhile, the anti-abortion movement is struggling as a majority of Americans report public support for abortion and reproductive rights and Democrats believe they have the upper hand on those issues as they draw contrasts with Trump and his supporters. Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) clarified over the weekend that Senate Republicans are not opposed to in-vitro fertilization (IVF) or contraception.
“None of these things are actually being challenged,” he told NewsNation’s “The Hill Sunday.”
EXASPERATED DEMOCRATS are trying to stamp out persistent speculation that party leaders have a Plan B to replace Biden atop the Democratic ticket due to concerns about his age and weak poll numbers. The Hill’s Alexander Bolton reports they’re tired of hearing about the handwringing of Democratic voters and donors over Biden’s age and electability and sick of reading about Rube Goldberg-like schemes to shakeup the Democratic ticket. One Democratic senator feigned putting a make-believe pistol to their temple when asked about the prospect of yanking Biden off the ticket.
The senator said stories about replacing Biden on the ticket sound “juicy” but are nothing more than a sign that political pundits have “too much time on their hands.”
“There’s no way in hell that’s true, not a chance in hell that’s true,” the lawmaker insisted. “I don’t know what to say.”
What does age have to do with it?
Biden’s allies are ramping up their pitch to older voters in key states including Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nevada and Arizona. The demographic, representing reliable voters who in the past favored Republicans, is a bright spot for the incumbent, according to recent polls (The Hill).
Young people say they have a lot of concerns. But in comparison to older potential voters, fewer say they’ll participate in the November elections (CBS News).
Tuesday is primary day in Minnesota, New York, Utah and Colorado:
Is Minnesota a battleground state? Democratic Gov. Tim Walz sidestepped the question, noting the contest will “be close” between Biden and Trump in a traditionally blue state. He told NewsNation’s “The Hill Sunday” that he’s confident voters will reelect Biden. Trump says he can capture the state. BTW: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will be in Minnesota today and Tuesday to talk up Biden’s economic agenda. The secretary will be joined by Minnesota Sens. Amy Klobuchar (D) and Tina Smith (D).
In New York, Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) is fighting for political survival against centrist Democrat George Latimer in the ugliest Democratic primary of the cycle as his political future — and the party’s progressive power — hang in the balance.
Highlighting strains within Utah’s state GOP, Gov. Spencer Cox is heading into tomorrow’s primary without his party’s nomination after the state GOP convention backed primary challenger Phil Lyman.
Democrats in Colorado are looking to elevate a controversial candidate in the GOP primary for a House seat set to be vacated by Rep. Lauren Boebert (R) in the hopes of flipping it in November.
2024 ROUNDUP
▪ Personnel Policy Operations, a nonprofit organization aligned with Trump paid $100,000 of legal fees for the six so-called “fake electors” in Nevada, according to people familiar with the payment.
▪ Some pollsters believe Biden’s new immigration orders will help him defeat Trump in battleground states among Latinos, a key demographic. Are they right?
▪ Meet the “double haters” who could decide the election, as many voters express resignation, dismay and anger over being asked to choose between Biden and Trump again.
▪ Clipping political gaffes was once more of a pastime for amateur political obsessives. Now, professionals have stepped in and supercharged the political discourse.
▪ Kentucky’s Democratic Governor, Andy Beshear, knows how to win in a red state. Is his party listening?
WHERE AND WHEN
The House will meet Tuesday at noon.
The Senate will convene Tuesday at 11:30 a.m. for a pro forma session.
The president is at Camp David. He will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 10 a.m.
Vice president will travel to College Park, Md., to address a campaign event. She will fly to Phoenix this afternoon to join a moderated campaign conversation, then travel to Los Angeles where she will remain overnight.
First lady Jill Biden will headline a political reception in Philadelphia at 6:45 p.m.
ZOOM IN
© The Associated Press / J. Scott Applewhite | Progressive activist Bill Christeson at the Supreme Court Friday.
COURTS
The Supreme Court will issue rulings this week amid a high-stakes political phase for Biden and Trump, as well as the unknowns of the former president’s status as a convicted felon stemming from his actions in a hush money scheme in 2016. His sentencing in Manhattan is scheduled for July 11. Separately, Trump has appealed to the high court, asserting he cannot be prosecuted for actions he took as president.
Here’s what to know about the justices’ pending decision about whether Trump enjoys an absolute legal shield for his presidency, including how the court’s ruling could impact the Justice Department’s pending prosecution of the former president for his actions before and after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol.
Trump also is the defendant in a slow-moving federal prosecution in Florida on charges of mishandling classified documents and allegedly trying to thwart a federal investigation. The judge in that case, Aileen Cannon, today will hear arguments about whether to bar Trump from making public comments that prosecutors assert could endanger the lives of FBI agents working on the case. The former president has falsely claimed that FBI agents, who carried out a search warrant at Mar-a-Lago for documents returned to the National Archives, were out to kill him and his family. Trump’s lawyers oppose a gag order.
The list of much-anticipated pending opinions from the Supreme Court this term extends beyond presidential immunity and alleged election interference. Here are other significant rulings to watch before the high court finishes its work by early July.
The Hill: Louisiana’s controversial new mandate to display the Ten Commandments in public schools will be challenged in court.
ELSEWHERE
© The Associated Press / Hussein Malla | Hezbollah hit the Israeli border town of Metula with rockets over the weekend.
INTERNATIONAL
The U.S. is pushing for Israel and Hezbollah to reach an agreement that would stop the daily rocket and artillery fire over the Lebanon border, but the efforts are failing to stop an escalating conflict, reports The Hill’s Brad Dress. Hezbollah has tied its cross-border firing into northern Israel to Israel’s operations in Gaza, but it’s unclear when that war could end, and each day of fighting is inching the conflict in Lebanon closer and closer to an all-out war. The U.S. has offered a diplomatic solution that would create a buffer zone at the border, but experts say the plan is unlikely to be accepted by both sides or it would create, at best, a temporary solution.
Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday said Israel is close to shifting to a less-intense phase of fighting, and that he opposes re-establishing Israeli civilian settlements in Gaza, proposed by his far-right coalition partners. He also doubled down on grievances over the Biden administration’s supply of munitions for the war in Gaza as Defense Minister Yoav Gallant arrived in Washington for meetings with senior U.S. officials. (The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times).
▪ The Hill: Air Force Gen. CQ Brown, chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, warned Sunday that an Israeli invasion of Lebanon against Hezbollah could spark opposition from Iran.
▪ CBS News: Dozens were killed in Israeli strikes across northern Gaza over the weekend amid continued West Bank violence.
Russia blamed Washington for a deadly strike on a strategic port in occupied Crimea on Sunday, claiming U.S.-supplied missiles were used in one of the biggest attacks on the Russian-annexed peninsula in recent months. While the origin of the weapons could not be independently verified, the Biden administration recently gave Ukraine permission to use American weapons to strike inside Russia (NBC News).
▪ The New York Times: Gunmen attacked synagogues and churches in two cities in southern Russia on Sunday, killing multiple police officers and a priest.
▪ CNN: Saudi Arabia said Sunday that more than 1,300 people died on this year’s Hajj pilgrimage to Mecca — with “numerous cases” due to heat stress.
▪ The Hill: A nuclear-powered U.S. aircraft carrier arrived this weekend in South Korea for a three-way exercise involving Japan as the countries step up military training to cope with North Korean threats.
OPINION
■ I know what America’s leading CEOs really think of Trump, by Jeffrey A. Sonnenfeld, guest essayist, The New York Times.
■ Maryland Gov. Wes Moore’s (D) marijuana pardons are a model for the country, by The Washington Post editorial board.
THE CLOSER
© The Associated Press / Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department via AP | A glimmering monolith was discovered last week jutting out of the rocks in the Desert National Wildlife Refuge in Nevada and was removed by Las Vegas police Friday.
And finally … The mystery of mammoth monoliths continues. (Cue the “X Files” theme.) Las Vegas authorities removed a 6-foot-4-inch glimmering object projecting from desert rocks Friday and confessed the installation and perpetrators remain a conundrum.
In November 2020, a similar metal column was found deep in the Mars-like landscape of Utah’s red-rock desert. Then came sightings in Romania, central California, New Mexico and on the famed Fremont Street in downtown Las Vegas.
Members of the Las Vegas police search and rescue team found the object near Gass Peak, part of the vast Desert National Wildlife Refuge where bighorn sheep and desert tortoises can be found roaming.
The truth is still out there.
Stay Engaged
We want to hear from you! Email: Alexis Simendinger (asimendinger@digital-release.thehill.com) and Kristina Karisch (kkarisch@digital-release.thehill.com). Follow us on social media platform X (@asimendinger and @kristinakarisch) and suggest this newsletter to friends!