Morning Report — Is Harris pulling ahead of Trump?

Getting the right kind of attention makes the difference in presidential contests. Vice President Harris’s traction has been measured since last month by her performance compared with President Biden, before he left the race. 

But inevitably, it’s how Harris fares against former President Trump that’s key. 

The Republican nominee is fuming about the size of the vice president’s crowds, her campaign’s skill at getting free media while she dodges interviews, the coffers she’s filling with campaign donations and her viral putdown that he’s “weird.” 

The important question Trump is asking his campaign team is not what’s in the press or which well-heeled donors and celebrities have joined forces to support her candidacy, but what likely voters in key states are thinking. 

As of this morning, the upshot is that Harris is holding her own and perhaps pulling ahead of Trump in some swing states but still within margins of error. As The New York Times’s Nate Cohn reported while studying the latest Times/Siena College survey of battleground states, “This period will not last forever, and the question is whether she will retain this kind of support when the going gets tough.”

Harris has a tiny lead, 0.3 points, over Trump in the national polling average calculated by Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ)/The Hill. But his lead had been 2.3-points, as reported by the same polling average on the day Biden dropped out of the race. The national polls are far less useful than the state-based surveys, but they can signal shifts that foreshadow Electoral College results by November.

Polling in the past week gave Harris her first lead in the DDHQ/The Hill average of Pennsylvania, which is the most electorally valuable of the battleground states, with 19 electoral votes. Several surveys find the two candidates locked in a close Arizona race, including a Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll that showed Harris leading Trump by 2 points.

An AARP poll published Thursday had Harris and Trump tied in Georgia.

HOPE STILL FLOATS? Veterans of former President Obama’s 2008 campaign are experiencing happy flashbacks amid Harris’s surge of support among grassroots Democrats and independents. The vice president’s fans swarm, give money, volunteer and create their own social media megaphones. 

“Haven’t seen anything like this in 16 years,” Stephanie Cutter, former deputy campaign manager for Obama’s reelection and a Harris campaign adviser, wrote on social platform X.

The Hill: Harris’s “joy” campaign targets voters’ sour mood.

Meanwhile, Trump is working to expand his own fan base. He returned Monday to social platform X with his first posts since last year. Why now? He was interviewed Monday night for about two hours after some technical delays by supporter and billionaire Elon Musk, owner of X, formerly Twitter.

The Hill: Five takeaways from Trump’s interview with Musk.

“The election is coming up and people want to hear about the economy. Food prices are up…and this stupid administration allowed this to happen,” Trump said, warming to a theme he plans to raise Saturday at a Pennsylvania rally. “And it’s a shame. And that’s the thing people most care about in my opinion.” 

Musk has federal concerns of his own, which he raised, including the prospect of creating a government commission to study the national debt and how Congress could reassess spending.

“I think it would be great to just have a government efficiency commission that looks at these things to make sure taxpayer money is spent in a good way,” Musk told Trump. “I’d be happy to help out on such a commission.”

Meanwhile, Musk’s months of efforts to support Trump’s campaign are chronicled by The Wall Street Journal.

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LEADING THE DAY

CAMPAIGN POLITICS

It’s primary day in Minnesota and three other states. 

Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar, one of the most divisive liberals in the House, faces a rematch against a Democrat who nearly ousted her in a primary in the last election cycle. Omar says she’s prepared and wants to avoid the fate of “squad” colleagues Reps. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) and Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.), each defeated in recent primaries.

The Hill: Five races to watch today in Connecticut, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Vermont primaries.

In Connecticut’s5th Congressional District, Rep. Jahana Hayes (D) will face the winner of today’s GOP primary in a competitive race this fall. The Cook Political Report ranks the contest as “lean Democrat.” 

In Wisconsin, Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D), seeking her third term, is unopposed in her primary. In November, she’ll face off against the GOP nominee,likelyRepublican businessman Eric Hovde. 

In Wisconsin’s Democratic primary for the 3rd Congressional District, political activist Rebecca Cooke is competing against state Rep. Katrina Shankland. Cooke finished second in the 2022 Democratic primary. Despite outraising Shankland $2 million to $868,000, Shankland has received more endorsements from the state’s congressional delegation, local leaders and labor organizations. The Democratic winner will take on Republican incumbent Rep. Derrick Van Orden, a staunch Trump ally who was elected in 2022. 

Wisconsin’s Republican primary for the 8th Congressional District takes place alongside a special primary election to fill the remainder of the term of Rep. Mike Gallagher (R), who resigned from Congress in April. Under Wisconsin state law, the vacancy in that congressional district will not be filled until after the general election in November.

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ZOOM IN

CONGRESS

SHRINK THE DEFICIT: Republicans say they’ll tackle the nation’s red ink if they’re in the majority in Congress next year. And here’s a data point lawmakers say is unsustainable: Interest costs in the first 10 months of this fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30, totaled $956 billion, up 32 percent from 2023. At the moment, the Senate GOP is searching for consensus about how to proceed. The federal debt is $35 trillion and projected to expand by $14 trillion over the next decade. Trump has called for $4 trillion in tax cuts, putting pressure on his party to come up with ways to reduce the deficit. Senate Budget Committee ranking member Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) proposes to offset new tax breaks. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) wants to reduce mandatory spending on non-Medicare, non-Social Security programs to achieve savings. Other Republicans argue that Medicare and Social Security must be on the table for future reforms (The Hill).

TRUMP SHOOTING: Rep. Mike Kelly (R-Pa.) and ranking member Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo.), leaders of a House bipartisan task force investigating the attempted assassination of Trump, sent letters Monday to the Justice and Homeland Security departments requesting all information and records turned over to any House or Senate committees in relation to the July 13 shooting. The seven Republicans and six Democrats on the task force requested a briefing from staff at both departments by Aug. 16 and face a Dec. 13 deadline to produce a report to Congress. Kelly represents a Pennsylvania district in which the shooting during a Trump rally took place. Trump and two men in the audience were injured. One rallygoer was shot and died and the gunman was killed by a Secret Service sniper (Punchbowl News).

The New York Times: Crow is a former Army Ranger who did three tours of duty in Iraq and Afghanistan and was awarded a Bronze Star. He holds a law degree and has a background in private-sector investigations. He’s Democrats’ go-to House colleague on national security who was a Democratic manager during Trump’s first impeachment proceedings and recently posed tough questions to Biden about his candidacy before the president quit the race. 

CHILDREN’S ONLINE SAFETY BILLS IN LIMBO: A bipartisan measure passed by the Senate last month and intended to bolster online privacy and safety for children faces stiff headwinds in the House and is unlikely to get a markup when Congress returns in September. “It could lead to censorship of conservative speech, such as pro-life views, is almost certainly unconstitutional, and grants sweeping new authority to unelected bureaucrats at the [Federal Trade Commission],” according to a House leadership aide.

PROBING THE PROBE: A senior investigator working with Republicans on the House Foreign Affairs Committee in an examination of the administration’s withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 quit Monday (The Hill). He accused members and Chair Michael McCaul (R-Texas) of siding with politics while not fully examining decisions made by military commanders and others. Thirteen U.S. service members and roughly 170 Afghan civilians died at Hamid Karzai International Airport’s Abbey Gate during an ISIS-K suicide bombing. The military’s report suggested the attack was “not preventable at the tactical level.” 

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ELSEWHERE

STATE WATCH

📲Minnesota: And speaking about online safety for children, a Minnesota state lawmaker who has led a two-year fight to pass safety legislation to help youngsters is set to try again next year in the face of sustained industry opposition. State Rep. Kristin Bahner (D) said legislators in at least a half-dozen more states could also sponsor versions of the bill next year as pressure builds to reset the relationship between kids and social media. “The coalition is growing by leaps and bounds, which is very promising,” Bahner told Pluribus News during a summit hosted by the National Conference of State Legislatures.

California: A shallow earthquake beneath Los Angeles Monday got everyone’s attention, despite its relatively modest 4.4 magnitude, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. No major damage or road closures were reported (KTLA5).

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THE CLOSER

And finally … On this day in 1961, East Germans under Soviet control used barbed wire and bricks to build the first version of the Berlin Wall, which imprisoned East Berliners under threat of death if they attempted to flee to freedom. More than 5,000 people escaped over, through and under the wall during its history. Approximately 100 people died making the attempt — most shot by border guards. It was not until 1989 that the scarred, graffiti-covered symbol of the Cold War was dismantled as the collapse of communism and a weakened Soviet Union allowed East and West Germany to reunite under what became a formal treaty of unification signed on Oct. 3, 1990.