Mellman: The limits of diplomacy

While President Biden has done a remarkable job building a coalition and executing a plan to help Ukraine fight back against Russian aggression, the far left of the Democratic Party has exhibited a halting and inconsistent policy toward the Russia’s invasion. 

Their problem stems in part from a broader misunderstanding of the role of diplomacy — a failing that infects attitudes toward other conflicts as well. 

A now deleted tweet from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) summarizes the problem. “The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is profoundly concerning. But military conflict is not the solution. We must seek a diplomatic resolution rather than escalate tension—and avoid sanctions that hurt the Ukrainian people.” 

Such sentiments reveal a profound misunderstanding of the role of diplomacy and negotiation. While these tools are always preferable to war, diplomacy only works, negotiation is only effective, when the objectives of the parties can be reconciled.

During the Cold War, the U.S. and the USSR had similar interests in preventing nuclear war, creating many opportunities for creative and effective diplomacy. Egyptian President Anwar Sadat’s recognition that Israel could not be destroyed and that his country, too, would benefit from peace created possibilities for diplomacy.  

But when nations’ goals are both central and irreconcilable, diplomacy is of little avail. 

How do we know when such a situation occurs?  

If Russia stopped shooting, there would be peace. If the Ukrainians stopped defending themselves, there would be no Ukraine.  

Until the calculus on one side or the other is altered, no negotiation will prove fruitful. 

The head of President Volodymyr Zelenksy’s office analogized what is happening there to Israel’s situation. If terrorists stopped attacking Israel there would be a two-state solution and peace. If Israel stopped defending itself, the terrorist armies of Hamas, Hezbollah and Fatah would put an end to Israel. 

In such circumstances diplomacy is simply not sufficient, though we’ve used it as “cover.” 

Henry Kissinger and Le Duc Tho won the Nobel Peace Prize for bringing “peace” to Vietnam through negotiation. 

But, in fact, having suffered horrific loss of life to prop up a corrupt dictatorship, the U.S. withdrew with a “peace treaty” in hand. Two years later, Saigon fell, and the country was unified by force under the control of a somewhat less corrupt, somewhat more dictatorial regime in the north. 

If Russia’s aim was to expand its security perimeter, negotiation could find a way to succeed — for example, an agreement to refrain from further NATO expansion. 

But as long as their goal remains the destruction of Ukraine as a sovereign nation, diplomacy will fail. 

Military facts on the ground could cause Russia to alter its objectives, at which point diplomacy has a role, but until then, expecting negotiation to solve the problem is naïve. 

It’s a naiveté reflected in dealing with other internaional problems as well.  

If Iran just wanted nuclear power and nuclear medicine, as they claim, agreement could be forged in hours. But, in fact, they want to be a nuclear weapons threshold state and have the option of deploying nuclear weapons on short notice. 

That’s what’s making it so difficult to reverse Donald Trump’s mistake in exiting the JCPOA. 

Yes, diplomacy is always better than war, but when differences are fundamental and irreconcilable, we have solved the problem, at great cost, through total military victory and unconditional surrender. 

Hitler didn’t just want the Sudetenland. So, giving it to him only postponed, but did not prevent, World War II, after which the allies occupied Germany for years and rebuilt its politics to our liking.  

A million allied soldiers occupied Japan for seven years after their surrender, during which we restructured Japanese politics and society. 

We tried the same in Iraq, far less successfully. 

We are not going to defeat and occupy Russia, but neither will they change their goals simply because of nice diplomatic talk. 

If this conflict is ever settled, it will be because of the heroism and tenacity of the Ukrainian people and the lethal aid and sanctions engineered by President Biden. 

Mellman is president of The Mellman Group and has helped elect 30 U.S. senators, 12 governors and dozens of House members. Mellman served as pollster to Senate Democratic leaders for over 20 years, as president of the American Association of Political Consultants, and is president of Democratic Majority for Israel.