Feehery: When it comes to the debt limit, polls matter 

Polls matter, sometimes in weird ways.  

Polls matter in debt limit negotiations, for example.   

No matter what politicians say in public, they care deeply about the latest polls.   

And right now, in the battle for public opinion, the polls seem to favor congressional Republicans over the president. 

President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) have plenty of time to get a deal on extending the debt limit while achieving other policy objectives. When it comes to the debt limit, polls matter. A month is an eternity in congressional politics.   

In the meantime, both sides are maneuvering for the best political position so that when the deal-making does happen, they will be in the strongest posture to dictate the terms.  

To get a deal, of course, it is best to set a deadline, and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen obliged by setting an early deadline, based most likely on pure fiction. June 1 is an arbitrary date. The government will likely run out of money in August, according to most experts, but June 1 is good for both sides because it will help them get to an earlier budget agreement.   

At first, House Republicans were hoping to get into a budget negotiation with the president without actually passing a budget. They were worried that a) they wouldn’t be able to pass one and b) such a vote could hurt them in the polls.  

But it turned out they strengthened their hand in the negotiations by coming together and passing an extension of the debt limit while including substantial spending cuts. It is a far better talking point to tell the American people “We have done our job, now do yours,” than “Please, Mr. President, negotiate with us.” 

In the meantime, Biden has been slipping in the polls for reasons that have little to do with the debt limit. Revelations that his campaign worked with former intelligence officials to lie about Hunter Biden’s laptop are damaging. Crime is out of control all over the country, and all the Biden White House can do is blame law-abiding gun owners.   

The administration also lost credibility with its COVID-19 response. Top Biden ally Randi Weingarten, president of American Federation of Teachers, got considerable grief for claiming she hadn’t been in favor of closing down schools. Anthony Fauci, former director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has tried to run away from all responsibility for the shutdown by channeling his favorite Shaggy song, “It wasn’t me.” Rochelle Walensky resigned in disgrace from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).  

Republicans are getting considerable traction by saying the COVID-19 spending spree is over and it is time to take in the belt a notch or two. There are billions of dollars in unspent COVID money. That the GOP simply wants to claw some of that money back is a strong talking point.  

The president is trying to split McCarthy from his more conservative members by calling the Republican leader honest while shaming his colleagues as MAGA Republicans. But most conservatives don’t see the shame in being called MAGA, and with such a small majority, all the Republicans are in the same boat. There is no splitting available here.   

I had thought that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) would try to put pressure on the House by passing a clean debt ceiling, but he apparently doesn’t have the votes. Forty-three Senate Republicans, including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), signed a letter saying no go on a clean debt ceiling. And who knows where Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) will be when the dust settles?  

Here is my guess:  Because Biden is leaking so much oil with the American people, a deal will be reached before summertime to include a spending commission and Republican-approved permitting reform along with a two-year increase in the debt limit. Nobody will be really happy, but nobody will be really sad either.   

Feehery is a partner at EFB Advocacy and blogs at thefeeherytheory.com. He served as spokesman to former House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.), as communications director to former House Majority Whip Tom DeLay (R-Texas) and as a speechwriter to former House Minority Leader Bob Michel (R-Ill.).