For those who want the Republican Party to move in a different direction, Sunday’s New York Times poll was pretty depressing. Donald Trump is winning the GOP primary and it seems unlikely that anybody is going to beat him.
Here is how the Times itself summed up its poll: “Mr. Trump held decisive advantages across almost every demographic group and region and in every ideological wing of the party, the survey found, as Republican voters waved away concerns about his escalating legal jeopardy. He led by wide margins among men and women, younger and older voters, moderates and conservatives, those who went to college and those who didn’t, and in cities, suburbs and rural areas.”
So why is Trump winning so easily?
Here are four reasons:
He has done this before: This is Mr. Trump’s third campaign for president. There is really no substitute for that kind of experience. And Republican voters usually reward somebody who has run before. Richard Nixon won the White House in his second run for president. Ronald Reagan ran against President Ford in 1976 before the voters rewarded him in 1980. George H.W. Bush lost in the 1980 primary but won in 1988, and the campaign apparatus that he had built up helped his son in 2000. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) ran twice, being nominated the second time. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney was nominated after his second run. The only recent candidate who actually won on his first try was Trump, but he was running against a field of first-timers as well.
He’s the most famous: It takes a lot of time and money to become president-worthy famous. Undoubtedly, everybody knew Mr. Trump because of his time on “The Apprentice” and that helped him immensely in 2016. Name ID is usually a pretty good predictor of electoral success. Voters like to vote for somebody that they have heard of before. Everybody has heard of Donald Trump. Nobody else in the field can touch Trump’s name ID. Political insiders have all heard of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Sen. Tim Scott (S.C.), former Vice President Mike Pence and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley. But if you did one of those Jay Leno man-on-the-street interviews, I betcha only a few of those interviewed could even name who Trump’s vice president was.
He dominates the new cycle: Because Trump is so famous, the mainstream news media is singularly fascinated with everything he does, says or is indicted for. How can a challenger to Trump become as equally famous if the news only covers what Trump says and does? There is no way that any candidate can get any traction under the current media environment. About the only way that a GOP challenger can get any press is by attacking Trump, but most Republican voters don’t like to hear attacks on the former president from other Republicans. They see it as a breach of loyalty to the party. And so, many of these challengers are forced to defend Trump when the Biden Justice Department and its allies indict the president on clearly partisan grounds.
He had a pretty good record as president: Trump’s ultimate trump card is his record in the White House. Sure, his White House was a mess internally, and his handling of COVID-19 was a disaster, but when it came to peace and prosperity, he was a winner. The economy was strong, every racial and ethnic group had record employment, America was energy self-sufficient, jobs and capital flowed back in the country because of his tax reform bill. On the international front, Russia had no reason to invade Ukraine, North Korea suspended its nuclear program, and peace agreements broke out in the Middle East. Not all was perfect in Trump world, and Jan. 6 was a terrible day, but for the bulk of Republican voters, the former president did a good enough job to warrant his reelection. At least that’s what the polls suggest.
Feehery, a partner at EFB Advocacy, blogs at thefeeherytheory.com. He served as spokesman to former House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.), as communications director to former House Majority Whip Tom DeLay (R-Texas) and as a speechwriter to former House Minority Leader Bob Michel (R-Ill.).