These November elections will set the stage for a turbulent 2024 

Though the current political conversation is mostly geared toward next year’s national elections, there are a handful of key state-level races taking place this November that are worth watching, as the results will provide critical insight into the electorate ahead of the 2024 presidential and congressional contests. 

This is especially the case in Virginia, a battleground state whose off-year elections have long been regarded as a national bellwether. In two months, Virginians will decide whether Republicans gain unilateral control of the commonwealth’s legislature, which is currently split, with Democrats maintaining narrow control of the State Senate and Republicans having a similarly slim majority in the House of Delegates. 

A GOP sweep in Virginia would be consequential for a number of reasons. For one, it would give Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin and his party the power to enact a conservative agenda in a state that hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate in nearly 20 years, potentially changing the ideological direction of the commonwealth for years to come, particularly as it relates to laws around issues like abortion access. 

With respect to national implications, a favorable outcome for Virginia Republicans would represent a powerful rebuke of President Joe Biden, whose low approval rating is certain to be a drag on Democrats’ chances, as well as an endorsement of Youngkin, who won an upset victory to become governor in 2021 with a center-right platform. Electoral success for his party would earn Youngkin valuable political capital and set the stage for him to possibly make a late entrance into the Republican presidential primary, or at the very least become an early favorite for 2028. Given the high stakes, the Democratic National Committee is spending big in the state, making a total expenditure of upwards of $1.2 million. 

Based on recent polling, which provides a snapshot of where things currently stand, Youngkin has reason to be optimistic. He boasts a 51 percent approval rating, which is relatively strong for a swing state governor; likewise, registered voters say they would prefer a Republican majority in both the House of Delegates and State Senate, by 10 and five points, respectively.  

In terms of specific races to watch, there are several key contests in areas like Northern Virginia that will be telling of national political dynamics in suburban areas, which are electorally critical for both parties. The suburbs of Northern Virginia have been ground zero for Democratic gains in the state over the last decade, and any reddening this year would signal trouble ahead for Biden and Democratic congressional candidates in 2024. 

In House District 21 — an open seat that narrowly elected Youngkin in 2021, but then voted for a Democratic congresswoman in 2022 — Democrat Josh Thomas, a Marine Veteran, is running against a former county supervisor, John Stirrup, who has been endorsed by Youngkin.

In Senate District 31 — an open-seat race that is set to become the most expensive in state legislative history — Democrat Russet Perry will face off against Republican businessman Juan Pablo Segura. 

In addition to offering insight into where suburban voters stand, this year’s Virginia elections will also represent a major test of the enduring strength of abortion as a political issue. Youngkin has indicated that Republicans, if they win full control of the state legislature, would curtail abortion rights in the state, which Democrats are slamming in their messaging. 

Should Virginia Republicans still emerge victorious despite their promise to limit abortion access, it would be a warning sign to Biden and Democrats that the issue’s potency in swing states is either waning or has become secondary to “kitchen table” concerns like the economy and crime, where Republicans invariably have a leg up. 

Like it has in Virginia, the issue of abortion will take center stage in Ohio’s elections this year. Ohioans will vote on a ballot measure that would protect abortions up to 24 weeks, the point of fetal viability, which would essentially create a similar standard as the now-overturned Roe v. Wade. 

Ohio abortion activists have achieved a few early wins. The GOP-dominated legislature’s six-week abortion ban was paused last fall by the courts, and over the summer, Ohio voters rejected an attempt by Republicans to raise the threshold to pass a constitutional amendment, a move designed to thwart the abortion legality measure. Still, left-wing proponents face an uphill battle to codify abortion rights in a red state, as right-wing opposition groups have already raised more than $16 million to their $10 million.  

The dynamics surrounding the Ohio ballot measure closely mirror what we saw in Kentucky last year. In 2022, voters in Kentucky — a red state with some purple tendencies, similar to Ohio —  rejected an anti-abortion constitutional amendment, which was seen as a major loss for the Republican Party and indicative of abortion’s potency as a political issue. 

Abortion has again taken centerstage in Kentucky this year in the state’s gubernatorial election, another race to watch, in which incumbent Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear is facing a challenge from Republican Daniel Cameron. Beshear has slammed Cameron for his longstanding hardline anti-abortion positions, which Cameron has attempted to moderate during the campaign. If Beshear is able to win reelection in a red — but evidently pro-abortion — state with this positioning, it will send a powerful message about the issue’s enduring benefit for national Democrats. 

The Kentucky gubernatorial race will be decidedly more competitive than the other two Southern contests for governor, Mississippi and Louisiana, where Republican candidates are heavily favored to win. 

While it’s far too early to say how the 2024 presidential and congressional elections will play out, the results of the November 2023 elections in Virginia, Ohio and Kentucky — among other states — will give both parties a pretty good idea of what to expect.

Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant who served as an adviser to President Clinton and to the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg. His new book is “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.”