Democracy’s high stakes in Taiwan’s vote  

Taiwan’s upcoming election stands as a litmus test of the Chinese Communist Party’s political warfare strategy, specifically whether disinformation and military drills alone can bend Taipei’s will toward Beijing’s reunification designs. Yet, China’s bid to undermine Taiwan’s democracy also foreshadows its intent to influence the 2024 U.S. election — an act of subversion Washington cannot afford to ignore.  

This Saturday, 19 million Taiwanese voters will determine more than simply their next president and parliament; their choices will also profoundly impact the tenor of U.S.-China relations for the foreseeable future. With voters set to weigh in on various domestic issues, including inflation and energy security, the defining challenge casting a shadow over every ballot is how Taiwan should respond to the mainland’s growing aggression. Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s recent warning to President Biden about China’s urgency to “resolve” Taiwan’s status — sooner rather than later — underscores the seriousness of today’s tensions in the Taiwan Strait. 

Having hinged its great-power resurgence on reunifying with Taiwan, China has understandably been loath to leave the island’s political fate to chance. Indeed, for 10 years running, Taiwan has been the world’s top target of disinformation, according to a Stockholm University study that tracks authoritarian influence. That trend continued this year, with China unleashing a torrent of new disinformation aimed at undermining the ruling Democratic Progressive Party — which has pledged closer ties to the U.S. other democratic powers — and bolstering opposition candidates seeking improved ties with the mainland. Chief among China’s other disinformation goals is sowing distrust about U.S. security guarantees should Beijing one day invade.  

Without doubt, cyberspace serves as the primary arena for China’s disinformation offensive. Cyberattacks designed to crash Taiwanese networks and propagate falsehoods reached unprecedented levels last quarter, spiking 3,370 percent — a more than thirty fold increase over the prior year — according to security firm Cloudfare. In one case, Chinese social media content farms impersonated genuine Taiwanese news websites and propagated seemingly legitimate broadcast clips championing China’s preferred political narratives about the election, including how reunification is ‘inevitable.’ Meanwhile, Chinese disinformation watchdog Doublethink Labs revealed how algorithms on TikTok, owned by the Beijing-headquartered ByteDance, overwhelmingly amplify content critical of the DPP. 

Besides spreading rumors, China has also resorted to levying new trade restrictions on Taiwanese firms reliant on the mainland’s market, attributing the move to the DPP’s “stubborn adherence to Taiwan independence.” More recently, Xi ordered China’s military to conduct pre-election drills in and around Taiwan’s territorial waters. Such maneuvers serve as a stark reminder that Beijing could one-day resort to kinetic action if voting trends diverge further from China’s stated reunification goals.   

Altogether, the potential effectiveness of China’s tactics in Taiwan could set a precedent for similar operations targeting other democracies, with the goal of destabilizing and manipulating public opinion from within. Such a scenario underscores the urgency for American vigilance and preparedness against an adversary adept at the art of political subversion. 

Alarmingly, evidence of Chinese interference in the U.S. has already surfaced. Before Christmas, the Biden administration declassified intelligence exposing Chinese interference in the U.S. 2022 mid-terms. These insidious operations ranged from social media campaigns aimed at eroding voter confidence to directly interfering in several distinct races, including undermining a congressional candidate because he supported the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests. The White House has not clarified its two-year delay in releasing this critical assessment, nor does it appear to have censured China for its meddling, per readouts of recent bilateral engagements with Beijing.

As Taiwan tallies its votes, it’s incumbent on Washington to confront Beijing’s machinations head-on. The U.S. must not only pre-emptively denounce any form of meddling during the upcoming U.S. election but also enforce a doctrine of deterrence, articulating clear consequences for any transgressions. Continued inaction by Washington could be perceived as acquiescence in Beijing, inviting ever-greater interference in the future.  

Second, the Biden administration must commit to providing Congress and the public with regular updates regarding Chinese meddling in the run-up to November’s election. The White House and Congress should also encourage social media companies — including Twitter and Meta — to do the same. Such disclosures are particularly relevant because Chinese cyber-actors have weaponized these platforms in the past to manipulate voter sentiments around divisive themes like racial injustice, police brutality, and U.S. military assistance to Ukraine.  

Last, Washington should pro-actively share relevant insights regarding Chinese election meddling with the other 50 democracies scheduled to hold elections this year, while also encouraging other governments to do the same in the name of collective democratic defense. 

As the world observes Taiwan’s election unfold this week, we are reminded that authoritarian regimes are incessantly working to make the world less safe for democracy. Beijing’s maneuvering in Taiwan today could very well be a prelude to the challenges the U.S. will face tomorrow. The time for a coordinated and decisive response is now — not after Americans begin casting their votes.  

Craig Singleton is a senior fellow at the non-partisan Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a former U.S. diplomat.