Anyone who claims to know how the Democrats are going to handle their newly discovered Joe Biden problem is lying to you.
That includes the innermost circles of the White House, the Democratic National Committee, and the chattering class. But I do know who to watch as Democrats wrestle with the issue.
The fact that it took a Department of Justice report to point out to the Democrats that Joe Biden has a failing memory and declining mental acuity is surprising in itself. The rest of the world knew as early as September 2022, when Biden had his “Where’s Jackie?” moment, calling for Rep. Jackie Walorski (R-Ind.) at a public event. Walorski had recently died in a horrific automobile accident. Everyone present knew about her death, including Biden, who had previously spoken about it.
Biden has always been a gaffe-generating machine. And he might even be excused for recently confusing François Mitterrand with Emmanuel Macron (could happen to anybody). But confusing alliterative names of foreign leaders and asking for dead people at a press conference are two different things. Everyone knows that, or should.
But apparently the Democrats confused that obvious sign of declining mental ability as just “Joe being Joe.” The same with the shuffling of the feet. Or with the blackness of the eyes. Anyone with a family member experiencing dementia can tell you the warning signs.
But the Democrats chose to ignore them. Now they cannot. It seems, however, that they don’t have many good options.
They could offer another name in the upcoming primaries, but that would need to be on a write-in basis, which is sloppy and doesn’t hold much promise of success. They might wait until they get to the convention, then release the Biden delegates to vote their will for any of a slew of candidates. Again, sloppy. I’ve also heard it suggested that they would wait until Biden is formally nominated at the convention, then have him step aside as the nominee, and have a replacement selected by party insiders. Less sloppy, perhaps, than an open brawl on the convention floor. But one can only wonder how such a coronation might be received by voters.
Indeed, one of the reasons that Democrats pinned their hopes on Biden in the first place was that his renomination is the least-sloppy way for them to get a name on the ballot against Donald Trump. It might still be. There’s a chance that Democrats will stick with Biden for that exact reason.
I don’t pretend to know what they are going to do, but I do who to watch, and why. This has to do with the other problem the Democrats have as they head toward November: Vice President Harris.
No one, outside of those either related to her or who have given her truckloads of money, is pushing the sitting vice president as the answer. She has, by any measure, disappointed at every level since being elevated to the second-highest position in the republic. Remember when she was in charge of the border? Neither does anyone else.
Even fewer probably remember that she ran for president in 2020. Back then, Fox News disparaged her as “an uneven campaigner who changes her message and tactics to little effect and has a staff torn into factions.” Sorry, just joking. That was what the New York Times wrote about her.
Harris was such a terrible candidate that she dropped out before the Iowa caucuses, which means that North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum lasted longer than she did as a presidential candidate. She’s shown little to suggest that she’d fare better today.
Everyone pretty much assumes that, if the Democrats were to move on from Biden, it won’t be Harris coming to the rescue. That creates real tension for a party that defines itself in large part by identity politics.
It might be different if another African-American woman were waiting in the wings. Oprah? Doubtful. Michelle Obama? All my Democrat friends tell me there is absolutely, positively no chance of that.
Democrats are going to face some really tough decisions if they decide to replace Biden. And there a small handful of people that will be in a position to help guide them. Former President Barack Obama is obviously one. But there is another: Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.).
Highly regarded by Democrats across the spectrum, he was the one who put an end to the Bernie Sanders nonsense back in 2016. And, short of the former president, no one is more respected in Black Democratic circles.
So if you start to see him on the Sunday talk shows saying nice things about California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, or Colorado Gov. Jared Polis, pay attention.
Democrats have certainly gotten themselves into a pickle, that gets harder to get out of with each passing day. But if they decide to go a different way, it will matter who is talking as much as it does what they are saying.
Mick Mulvaney, a former congressman from South Carolina, is a contributor to NewsNation. He served as director of the Office of Management and Budget, acting director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and White House chief of staff under President Donald Trump.