The quasi-third-party effort known as No Labels took two gut punches last week, as a few big names that had been floated as potential leaders of the upstart presidential ticket opted out of pursuing the White House.
The first was the former Republican governor of Maryland, Larry Hogan. The affable centrist seemed to fit the group’s self-described “Unity Ticket” to a tee. His moderate brand of Republicanism earned him two terms in Annapolis, his second win coming by what could only be considered a landslide margin of nearly 12 percent. For context, that year Democrat U.S. House candidates in Maryland garnered a whopping 65 percent of the vote.
Hogan’s hands-off approach to abortion and guns, and his obvious ability to persuade Democrat-leaning swing voters made him, on paper at least, the sort of person that fit perfectly into a down-the-middle Unity Ticket.
But now he is running for the Senate instead.
The other name most frequently associated with the No Labels movement has been Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.). Manchin has been a regular on the cable news and Sunday show circuits pitching his brand of independent compromise. And he wasn’t shy about teasing his interest in a promotion to the White House. But last week, he too put the kibosh on that.
Manchin was probably not as viable as Hogan. What he pitched as independence sometimes came across as waffling inconsistency. And, unlike Hogan, he had made enemies on both sides of the aisle. And while certainly more vigorous than the current occupant of the White House, his age — he turns 77 this summer — doesn’t exactly set him apart from the likely major-party nominees.
Still, his name was out there, and he did have a national profile that a few decades in public office will get you. Losing him was certainly another blow to No Labels.
None of which to say that No Labels is out of the game. There is still one thing working in its favor: the apparent general displeasure amongst the electorate with the idea of a Joe Biden-Donald Trump rematch.
Say what you will about No Labels, but they are really good at polling and collecting and interpreting data. And the data they have would convince anyone that the time is right for a third-party campaign.
The problem No Labels faces, however, is that their numbers offer only a general sense of the electorate, and elections are not general sort of things. They are very specific.
You don’t go into the voting booth and vote for whomever you think might be the very best person in the world to serve in office. You go in and choose from among the names in front of you. The question then, is really “Do you want Biden, or Trump or…fill in the blank?”
And No Labels doesn’t have a name. Indeed, it’s hard to imagine putting a name next to the No Labels line on a ballot right now that gets more than a protest vote.
Yes, there are other names out there who one might suppose could be viable third-party candidates. In theory at least. Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson or Oprah Winfrey might be credible. But neither has shown any interest after more than one overture from various camps. Taylor Swift’s name has been mentioned once or twice. From among current politicians, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s (I-Ariz.) name comes up from time to time, as does Sen. Mitt Romney’s (R-Utah). But again, are those the sort of names that rouse at least one-third of the population to action?
Nikki Haley’s name has come up in conversation in various outlets. But the pro-life, neoconservative former Tea Party governor and fiscal hawk is about as much of a compromise candidate as I would be.
There is no shortage of failed or past-their-prime former politicians who see No Labels’ massive cash hoard and start daydreaming about what might be. But those folks are already out of the game and for a reason.
Therein lies the age-old: you can’t beat something with nothing. And right now, No Labels has nothing.
That could change, of course. No Labels certainly has one thing going for it: There is certainly a swath of America out there that would like to see a third name on the ballot. (A viable third name that is — no offense intended to Cornel West or Robert F. Kenndy Jr.)
Whether No Labels can find the right person to focus that energy, however, remains seriously in doubt. Especially after last week.
Mick Mulvaney, a former congressman from South Carolina, is a contributor to NewsNation. He served as director of the Office of Management and Budget, acting director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and White House chief of staff under President Donald Trump.