It’s time to put up on Ukraine, Speaker Johnson

The House of Representatives returns to session on Tuesday. It faces no question more urgent than assistance for Ukraine, which is running low on the weapons it needs to defend against the invading Russian army. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) recently said the House should act “right away.”

One hopes so. Johnson has expressed support for Ukraine in the past — but done nothing, apparently out of concern for his job. Now, he must act. Ukraine could lose without U.S. help.

Few would have predicted in February 2022 that in April 2024 the Ukrainian military would largely be holding its own against the Russians. In Europe’s bloodiest war since World War II, Russia today occupies little more Ukrainian territory than it did in April 2023 and significantly less than it did in the first half of 2022.

That said, Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive did not succeed. The country faces a challenging year in 2024 and will largely fight on the defensive. The gap in American assistance—the last U.S. funding ran out last December—has made that fight even more difficult. For example, the Ukrainian army must conserve artillery shells. As a result, in some battles, such as the defense of the town of Avdiivka, the Russians fired six or 10 shells for each one the Ukrainians fired.

Europe has stepped up. Its committed assistance more than doubles that committed by America. However, Europe by itself lacks the stockpiles and defense industrial capacity to meet Ukraine’s needs.

On March 31, Johnson said he expected the House on its return to move forward on Ukraine assistance, albeit with some “innovations.” The Biden administration first raised a supplemental bill with assistance for Ukraine early last fall. Johnson told Sean Hannity in October that “we can’t allow Vladimir Putin to prevail in Ukraine.”  In February, Johnson reportedly called Putin a “mad man” at a fundraiser and assured the gathering that the House would approve assistance for Ukraine. Sadly, however, he has to date taken no action.

Perhaps Johnson has come to understand the stakes for the United States. It is not just about Ukraine. A Putin emboldened by victory there would be tempted to go further. That would increase the prospects of a NATO-Russia military clash, putting American troops at risk.

While Johnson may now understand the stakes, he worries about keeping his job. A significant number of House Republicans support assistance for Ukraine, but the party’s extreme MAGA wing does not. On March 22, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), who seems not to understand what is at stake and appears to have a soft spot for Putin, filed a preliminary motion to remove Johnson as Speaker.

That has been the dilemma before Johnson. He can push through a vote for Ukraine or keep his job. He has faced that dilemma for five months, and his response has been to kick the can down the road. That was a choice, and it had consequences: greater Ukrainian casualties and retreat. As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky put it in a recent interview, “If there is no U.S. support, it means that we have no air defense, no Patriot missiles, no jammers for electronic warfare, no 155-millimeter artillery rounds. It means we will go back, retreat, step by step, in small steps.”

Johnson now can do the right thing. He can bring the supplemental assistance bill approved by the Senate 70-29 to the House floor, where it would assuredly pass, and Democrats have indicated they would provide the votes to protect his job. He could also propose an alternate bill providing substantial assistance for Ukraine, hopefully without troublesome “innovations,” such as unacceptable border security provisions, that would bog the House bill down in the Senate.

Alternatively, if he fears losing his leadership position, he can tell House Republicans privately that they are free to sign a discharge petition. That would force a vote on the floor even without the Speaker’s support.

Johnson claims to support assisting Ukraine. He has multiple paths to make that happen. But he needs to take action. Further delay will mean more successful missile strikes on Ukrainian cities, more Ukrainian casualties and the retreat of Ukraine’s army.

Steven Pifer served as the third U.S. ambassador to Ukraine.