As Mexico’s democracy shows decline, the US must pay attention to its upcoming election

On June 2, Mexicans will choose a new president, a new Congress, and thousands of state and local officials. The outcomes and the aftermath will have major implications for the United States as well as for Mexico. The U.S. must pay close attention.

The U.S. relationship with Mexico touches the daily lives of more Americans than any other country in the world. Mexico is the U.S.’s largest trade and co-production partner. It is the pathway for most irregular migration and the largest single source of migrants. Mexico is the point of entry for most of the deadly fentanyl and other illicit drugs entering the U.S. It is also the source of family and cultural ties for over 35 million U.S. citizens.

The United States needs good cooperation with Mexico to be able to effectively address and manage the challenging issues facing both countries. Poor cooperation would be very costly in both the short and long term. Mexico’s June elections and post-election developments will determine the potential for U.S. cooperation with Mexico as a democratic partner.  

Unfortunately, the quality of Mexico’s democracy and its governance has been declining according to a range of studies that compare the performance of countries around the world in these areas. This alarming trend in Mexico is significantly underappreciated. It could seriously undermine the quality of U.S.’s partnership with Mexico, as well as the nature of Mexico’s governance.

This is especially important because the challenges that Mexico faces remain daunting, as highlighted by the regular reports of violence in Mexico. The country has had more homicides during the current presidential administration than during any other presidential term in recent decades. Mexico is ranked as having the third worst criminality score globally. Significant violence mars the ongoing election campaign and many observers worry about the role of organized crime, especially in local elections.

The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index 2023 ranks Mexico 90th out of the 167 countries it studied, and labels Mexico as a “hybrid” democracy, which is below a “full” or “flawed” democracy. 

Also, Freedom House’s latest report of Freedom in the World, characterizes Mexico as “partly free.” It describes a decline in some freedoms beginning after 2017 and flags concerns with organized crime and violence, corruption, lack of government transparency and poor rule of law, among other issues.

The World Bank prepares Worldwide Governance Indicators covering over 200 countries and territories.  Looking at data sets from 2012, 2017 and 2022, these indicators show Mexico’s percentile rank declined in every category over the ten years.

The key point is that expert studies covering most of the world find similar concerns and trends about the state of democracy and governance in Mexico. These conclusions echo concerns raised by many Mexican and international commentators and organizations about violations of human rights and civil liberties, attacks on individuals and non-governmental organizations that criticize the government, along with violence against journalists and activists.

Mexicans, of course, have the most at stake, but next in line is the United States. The U.S. has invested heavily in U.S.-Mexico ties, including with a major trade agreement and massive investment by U.S. companies. The Biden administration set up a series of regular U.S.-Mexico meetings and processes to address difficult issues. This has produced better dialogue and cooperation overall, with good cooperation on trade, combined effort on migration, and improved but far from satisfactory partnership on public security and drug trafficking.

Building from a broader understanding of trends in Mexico, we all need to pay closer attention to the results of Mexico’s June 2 elections and the aftermath. If Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s preferred candidate and his party win a big majority (with 2/3 of Congress), for example, we may well see an effort to amend Mexico’s constitution in ways that analysts warn would further weaken its courts and rule of law, its electoral authorities and other independent regulatory bodies, concentrating more power in the executive branch.

A constant, however, is that the United States and Mexico are profoundly intertwined. The U.S. needs a strong, democratic Mexican partner to strengthen its own prosperity and security, just as Mexico needs a good partnership with the U.S. Both countries need to understand the trends shaping electoral outcomes on the other side of the border and should engage each other to forge as constructive a partnership as possible. That will bring the best outcomes for Mexicans and Americans. 

Earl Anthony Wayne is a retired career ambassador and distinguished diplomat in residence at the School of International Service at American University. He is a public policy fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars.