Matthews: Senate elections could decide the presidency — or vice versa 

Republicans have been boasting about former President Donald Trump’s lead in several swing-state polls. But if swing states are to determine who wins the White House in November, it’s important to consider other statewide elections in those states that might influence turnout and voting patterns. Five of the seven swing states have a U.S. Senate seat up for election. And in all five of them the Democratic Senate nominee (or likely nominee) is ahead in the average of polls.  

In short, if the Democratic Senate candidates, three of whom have the benefit of incumbency, win their seats, there’s a very good chance President Biden will be reelected. 

For statewide races, the presidency, U.S. Senate and governors’ races are the most likely to bring voters to the polls. Of the seven swing states — Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona — only one, North Carolina, has a gubernatorial race this year.  

However, five of them — Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona — have a Senate race. Four of them are held by a Democrat, while Arizona is held by Democrat-turned-independent Kyrsten Sinema, who isn’t running again. 

Of the five swing states with Senate elections, Trump is leading in all of the polls except in Michigan, where Biden leads by one point. That’s why the polling looks good for Trump. 

However, look at the polling for the Senate candidates. In RealClearPolitics’s latest average of polls, Democrat Ruben Gallego (D) leads likely Republican candidate Kari Lake by 6 points in Arizona; Sen. Bob Casey (D) leads David McCormick (R) by 5 in Pennsylvania; and Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) is ahead of Eric Hovde (R) by nearly 7 in Wisconsin. 

The Michigan primary is not until Aug. 6. But when RealClear compares Democrat Elissa Slotkin with Republican Mike Rogers, Slotkin is ahead by 1 point. 

Finally, Nevada’s primary isn’t until June ll. But when RealClear compares Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen with Republican Sam Brown, its average of polls has Rosen ahead by about 5 points. 

Simply put, Democrats are leading in all five swing-state Senate races.  

While Senate race polling could change dramatically by Nov. 5, if Democrats maintain similar Senate leads, Republicans would need a lot of those swing-state voters to vote for different parties for president and Senate.  

The problem is split-ticket voting isn’t common. The Pew Research Center conducted a poll in October 2020, just a few weeks before the last presidential election, to find out how many voters in states that also had a Senate race planned to vote split ticket. That is, there was a Trump-Biden presidential option but with a Senate seat up for grabs — essentially, the same scenario we have in five swing states for the upcoming election.  

Pew’s assessment of the 2020 election: “In an era of increasing partisanship, split-ticket voting continues to be rare in U.S. politics. With control of the Senate at stake on Nov. 3, just 4% of registered voters in states with a Senate contest say they will support Donald Trump or Joe Biden and a Senate candidate from the opposing party.” 

And here’s another point that would seem to favor Biden in the five swing states: Voters are more likely to vote a straight Democratic ticket (43 percent) than a straight Republican ticket (35 percent), according to Pew.

Thus, if Democrats go to the polls Nov. 5 planning to vote for the Democrat in the Senate race, there’s a very good chance they will vote for the Democratic presidential candidate also. Advantage Biden. 

But Trump’s polling in some of the swing states with Senate elections is significantly higher than Biden’s: Up 6 points in Arizona and 13 in Nevada. He has smaller leads in Wisconsin (1 point) and Pennsylvania (4 points).  

In addition, Trump has some of the most loyal and energized supporters we’ve seen in modern American politics. Biden’s supporters are much more tepid, both about the man and his policies. Yet political enthusiasm often drives voter turnout and outcomes. 

It’s easy to imagine moderate Democrats voting for a Democratic Senate candidate, but voting for Trump because they are so fed up with Biden’s progressive policies. But it’s hard to imagine many Trump supporters voting for a Democratic Senate candidate. Advantage Trump. 

If Trump is able to turn out the vote in those swing states, he will not only take the White House, but also likely add a significant number of Republicans to the Senate. So, it’s entirely possible that instead of the Democratic-leaning Senate races helping Biden win reelection, the presidential race will help Republicans take back the Senate.  

Merrill Matthews is a resident scholar with the Institute for Policy Innovation in Dallas, Texas. Follow him on X@MerrillMatthews.