Cuba-Russian relations come full circle — why US policy must reflect this reality

In September 1960 Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev gave Fidel Castro a resounding bear hug. The setting was the annual meeting of the United Nations General Assembly, and the hug marked the beginning of a long and storied history between Cuba and the Soviet Union. According to James G. Hershberg, this encounter symbolized “the creation of a sturdy Soviet-Cuban political, economic, and military alliance, and the island’s incorporation into the communist world.”

Former New York Times foreign correspondent Ted Szulc would later refer to this New York City meeting as, “magnificent political theatre, leaving no doubt that Cuba had exchanged the American influence sphere for that of the Soviets, with all its attendant political implications…”

And in the years that followed, Cuba grew desperately dependent on Soviet markets and aid, becoming a steadfast Cold War ally, eventually joining the Soviet-led COMECON and becoming the recipient of an estimated $4.5 billion in annual Soviet subsidies.

Fast forward several decades, and Cuba appears poised to repeat history, risking U.S. security and its own sovereignty again in the process. In recent days, a convoy of Russian ships arrived in Cuba for a week-long stay that will include a series of air and naval exercises in the Caribbean. The four-ship caravan includes a nuclear-powered submarine, a fleet oil tanker, a frigate, a salvage tug and a hypersonic missile. 

This development — a clear show of force and a demonstration of strengthening ties between Cuba and Russia — comes just a few years after the two countries announced plans to enhance a joint intelligence facility on the island, and two years into Russia’s war in Ukraine. It also comes following Cuba’s expressed disapproval of Ukraine’s entry into NATO and as U.S.-Russia tensions further escalate, threatening European and broader Western stability and security. 

Just last week, in response to a U.S. decision to allow Ukraine to use American weapons inside Russia, Russian President Vladimir Putin replied with new threats, announcing that he could provide arms to allies for the purpose of striking Western targets.

While the Russian convoy is not expected to pose an immediate security risk to the United States, it’s hard to imagine that its arrival isn’t also meant to be a demonstration of Russia’s objection to America’s ongoing support of Ukraine. These actions, reminiscent of the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, are evidence that Cuba continues to both host and support some of America’s most dangerous adversaries. Given the dismal state of the Cuban economy, it’s likely Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel believes his country’s survival depends on it.

To further complicate matters, Cuba-Russia relations are not limited to the military sphere. In fact, as in early Cold War days, there are extensive plans to increase economic ties and influence between the two nations.

Last May, Cuba welcomed a Russian delegation of government officials and business leaders with promises of preferential access to Cuban land, more favorable import tariffs and enhanced shipping arrangements. There has also been discussion of deals related to Russian wheat, crude oil, sugar production, the creation of a Cuban market for varied Russian goods, as well as possible joint investments in Cuba’s tourist industry.

In 2022, trade between the two nations grew to an estimated $450 million, a threefold increase from the year prior, and with expectations of further growth this year. These developments come at a time of escalating economic and social desperation for Cubans, who for years have struggled with severe food and medicine shortages and daily electricity outages. Cubans also continue to contend with a government that is stubbornly apathetic, repressive and draconian.

Since at least July 2021, when protests erupted across the island, public frustration and protests have become more commonplace, with severe punishment exerted on those who demonstrate.

These strengthening Cuba-Russia military and economic ties, coupled with growing economic and social despair in Cuba, should serve as an important wake up call to the United States and its Western allies.

In case there was any doubt, the arrival of Russian ships in Havana’s harbor this week provides dramatic evidence that Cuba and Russia may be returning to their Cold War-era bonds. As a result, the Biden administration should acknowledge this fact and adjust its expectations and policies accordingly. Not doing so could have dire consequences for the United States and wider hemispheric security.

Cristina Lopez-Gottardi, PhD, is an assistant professor and chair of programming at the University of Virginia’s Miller Center.