Modi’s embrace of Putin is a calculated diplomatic gamble

For obvious reasons, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Moscow, his first since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, stirred significant global attention. Modi’s embrace of Russian President Vladimir Putin occurred amidst the grim backdrop of a missile strike on a Ukrainian children’s hospital, eliciting strong condemnations from critics, including Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, who labeled Modi’s visit “a huge disappointment.”

The United States also voiced its concerns over India’s ties with Russia, highlighting the delicate diplomatic balancing act Modi faces. However, Western critiques of Modi’s visit overlook the complexities of the Russia-India relationship, which remains crucial for both nations. For New Delhi, nurturing this relationship is a crucial test of its diplomatic agility. The India-Russia bond, forged during the Cold War, remains robust.

Russia has become energy-thirsty India’s largest oil supplier, a vital source of fertilizers, and a key provider of grain. Trade between the two nations has surged dramatically. Before the Ukraine conflict, a $25 billion annual trade target seemed lofty. Today, that figure has ballooned to $65 billion, with Modi and Putin ambitiously aiming for $100 billion by 2030. This growing economic partnership underscores a broader strategic alignment, positioning India as a pivotal player in global geopolitics.

While the West may view India’s engagement with Russia with skepticism, it is clear that New Delhi values its historical ties with Moscow. For Modi, strengthening this relationship is not just about trade; it’s about securing India’s strategic interests in a turbulent global landscape. Modi’s diplomatic maneuvers reflect a calculated strategy to elevate India’s status — and his own after less-than-expected electoral performance — on the global stage.

With a keen sense of realpolitik, Modi aims to capitalize on others’ conflicts to bolster his country’s and his own international standing. His ambition is to position India as a pivotal power, sought after by both democracies and autocracies. Building stronger ties with Russia serves India’s immediate strategic interests. Modi’s game plan includes inserting India between Beijing and Moscow, thereby preventing a closer alliance between the two. This is crucial for India, particularly as it faces potential conflicts with China over territorial disputes in the Himalayas. Russia’s neutral stance could be crucial if conflict were to erupt closer to India’s borders. 

Russia’s deepening dependence on China poses a significant challenge for India, stirring concerns that Moscow could become a subordinate partner in light of the growing economic, demographic, and technological disparities between the two giants.

The strengthening of Russia-China ties creates a precarious balance, potentially sidelining other global players. India’s strategic partnership with Russia introduces a new dynamic, allowing New Delhi to counterbalance China’s influence in Eurasia. By aligning closely with Russia, alongside its alliances with the U.S. and Japan, India is trying to enhance its position within the Asian security framework. This trilateral alignment provides India with a strategic advantage over China, asserting its role in regional stability. 

Moscow, aware of India’s apprehensions, has steered its relationship with New Delhi carefully, acknowledging India’s ties with Western allies while maintaining its partnership with Beijing.

Oil is another key factor. Since the onset of the war and the implementation of the Western price cap on Russian crude, India has emerged as a major beneficiary, importing discounted oil that has boosted its industries. This strategic importation has reportedly saved India around $7.9 billion between April 2023 and March 2024, making it the second-largest importer of Russian oil after China.

This influx of cheap oil has not only supported Indian industry but also indirectly funded Putin’s war efforts in Ukraine. Critics may question Delhi’s ethics, but India’s response highlights a pragmatic approach: By purchasing Russian oil, it claims to help stabilize global oil prices. Modi’s geopolitical acrobatics, therefore, are not just about diplomacy but about securing strategic and economic advantages for India in an increasingly complex world. 

India’s trade imbalance with Russia has become a pressing issue for New Delhi. Despite a total trade volume of $65 billion, India’s exports to Russia are a meager $5 billion. This stark disparity highlights an unsustainable economic relationship. Additionally, India harbors growing concerns about Russia’s ability to meet its defense commitments, especially in light of Western sanctions affecting semiconductor chip supplies. For India, securing timely delivery of defense spare parts and the S-400 systems is crucial, which was major part of Modi’s agenda in Moscow.

But Prime Minister Modi’s overtures to Vladimir Putin have challenged the idea of Russia’s global isolation. Modi’s visit forms part of a broader diplomatic trend. Before meeting Modi, Putin engaged with Central Asian countries at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Kazakhstan, where he also interacted with Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Additionally, Putin met with Chinese President Xi Jinping, whom he affectionately calls his “dear friend,” a sentiment reciprocated by Xi. 

Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s self-proclaimed mediator in the Ukraine conflict, also visited Moscow. This series of diplomatic engagements suggests a growing line of international leaders seeking dialogue with the Kremlin. Despite Western efforts to isolate Russia, these meetings denote a persistent global connectivity.

Putin is using his diplomatic outreach to assert his vision of a declining U.S. and a rising multipolar world. By forging ties with global partners like India, he not only strengthens Russia’s position but also sends a message to Beijing. Putin’s strategy involves demonstrating that Moscow has a range of international relationships, including with one of China’s major rivals, to avoid over-reliance on Beijing. 

Yet, this diplomatic balancing act comes with significant risks. China wields substantial economic influence over Russia, a leverage that India cannot match. Nearly half of Russian oil and gas exports are directed towards China, which also supplies critical industrial equipment and electronics to Moscow. By diversifying his international partnerships, Putin aims to remind China of the complexities in their relationship, ensuring that Moscow remains an influential player in the global arena.

Modi’s recent embrace of Vladimir Putin has sent a clear signal: Russia remains integral to India’s strategic calculus, despite Western concerns. This visual declaration illustrates New Delhi’s determination to prioritize its strategic interests over external pressures. India’s stance exhibits confidence that the West values its partnership as much as India does theirs, risking strained relations and strategic complexity in the region. Modi’s visit to Moscow highlights the importance of diplomatic engagement and strategic autonomy but also reveals the complex tensions inherent in India’s foreign policy strategy.

Imran Khalid, a physician with a master’s degree in international relations, is a geostrategic analyst and freelance writer.