It’s gloom time for Democrats.
As most Americans worry about a new, unprecedented terror threat from the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq (ISIS), national Democrats are facing their fears about losing control of the Senate on Nov. 4. The writing on the wall is dark but increasingly clear, as the GOP holds a steady and growing advantage that could cost Democrats six to 10 seats. With just eight weeks left until Election Day, Democrats are scrambling to target resources most effectively to contain their losses while their unpopular president launches a new war in the Middle East.
{mosads}The upcoming election will be different from recent midterm cycles, in that there is no one galvanizing issue, like the Iraq War in 2006 or ObamaCare in 2010, that will influence the outcome. While most observers bet a year ago that the Affordable Care Act would surely dominate the debate as it had in 2010 and 2012, it doesn’t appear to be singlehandedly driving voter discontent. There is nothing the electorate is voting for or against this cycle and, according to polls, few believe the election will change the status quo of polarized gridlock that is now the norm in Congress. But voters are upset over everything, so the party of a president in his sixth year in office will likely pay dearly. The healthcare reform law is still unpopular, the economic recovery remains a disappointment to most Americans, the border crisis has enraged many voters who were once supportive of comprehensive immigration reform, and now Americans are worried about the spread of Ebola and the growing threat from ISIS. Even loyal Democrats wonder why they should get in the car on Election Day.
The new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows the political landscape is worse for President Obama and his party than the one President George W. Bush faced in 2006, when his party lost control of both houses of Congress. It is also worse than it was when Democrats lost the House in 2010. There are now more voters who believe the country is on the wrong track than at this point in 2006 and 2010. Though the Democrats held advantages in the generic ballot before losing in 2010, the GOP now enjoys a lead of 2 points, which reaches 10 points in the battleground states where Democratic incumbents are fighting to win states Obama lost badly in 2012.
Right now, Republican candidates — none of whom are disastrous Tea Party nominees as in recent cycles — are leading in key races like Arkansas, Louisiana, North Carolina and Alaska. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is ahead in Kentucky. Montana, West Virginia and South Dakota will flip from Democrat to Republican. Sen. Mark Udall of Colorado is the only Democratic incumbent in a tough race with a lead. In the weeks to come, Democrats are worried about Republicans gaining momentum in New Hampshire, Iowa and Georgia. It’s far too fragile an environment for any errors on the part of Democrats, and party leaders know Obama’s execution of a new strategy against ISIS could be fertile ground for mistakes. Polls show a majority of Americans are not at all confident that the president can lead a successful battle against ISIS, and Republicans have grown their advantage on national security matters to 38 points, according to the NBS/Wall Street Journal survey.
There is, of course, the chance Americans will unite behind the commander in chief in the weeks to come, should he articulate and execute what voters believe to be an effective strategy to defeat ISIS. But in a long-term fight that his administration has predicted could take years, Obama isn’t likely to enjoy any immediate successes that lift voters from their funk. Like the strength of ISIS, it has been building for years.
Stoddard is an associate editor of The Hill.