The GOP has a bridesmaid problem and desperately needs a bride — or two, or three or even four.
With presidential candidates as far as the eye can see, but no clear front-runner, neither the party nor the TV networks that will host next year’s presidential primary debates know how to decide which of the potential 19 candidates should participate in them.
{mosads}It won’t be as simple as choosing only candidates with polling advantages, experience in office, strong fundraising or the most Facebook friends. The group in question has plenty of each. Too many of each.
The huge field, wide-open contest, embarrassment of riches — whatever Republicans want to call it — has produced a problem that could become, well, embarrassing.
Republicans thought they had their debate problem under control. After concluding that 20 primary debates in 2012 were too many, the Republican National Committee limited the number to nine for the 2016 cycle. Ongoing negotiations are focused on “criteria” with which to judge each candidacy in order to “winnow” the list down to a number of people that can physically fit on a stage and have the right to be there. Unofficial numbers have been leaked, and the number 12 has come up the most, though the RNC insists there is “no cap.”
Who is a real candidate and what does an authentic campaign for president look like, if there is such a thing anymore? What was once a “credible path” to the nomination may be antique by the end of next year.
Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum finished in second place last time, which in the past would have made him the anointed one. Money talks, and the best fundraisers typically have the most support and are the most viable. But former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush has outraised everyone and doesn’t lead the polls.
Ben Carson is considered as likely to be elected president as Donald Trump, yet the former neurosurgeon’s fans are devoted, and he, too, is raising goodly sums — and no one knows just how to kick Trump off the stage. Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina is close to last in polls but is energizing crowds and getting rave reviews. It’s hard to believe the GOP would bump its only female candidate from the list.
Four sitting governors, four sitting senators and six former governors are potentially running — imagine telling any of them that, when the music stops, their butts are hitting the floor.
Talk show host Hugh Hewitt, who will moderate a debate on CNN, suggested to Time magazine that participation should be limited to those who are viable candidates for president, vice president or a “senior position in the next administration.” That list may be without end. Indeed, many prospects are looking for other jobs. Surely any, no matter who wins, except for maybe Sens. Rand Paul (Ky.) and Lindsey Graham (S.C.), could top the list for secretary of State or secretary of Defense. Perhaps Fiorina will be selected to run as vice president; if not, she would make a great United Nations ambassador or Commerce secretary. Former New York Gov. George Pataki for attorney general?
With limited debates and so many candidates, each moment will be precious, particularly to those who need to raise money. They will likely talk in sound bites rather than substance and will be tempted to be provocative — exactly what the RNC was trying to avoid.
Networks are claiming they will be the final arbiters, but it would be wrong for the RNC to relinquish the entire process. If the structure of the debates ends up hurting the party and ultimately undermining the GOP nominee, party officials will be blamed.
Republicans don’t like to pick winners and losers — but they will have to.
Stoddard is an associate editor of The Hill.