Ohio shows Trump still owns the GOP

Donald Trump demonstrated again his unparalleled clout in the Republican Party as his designated candidate, J.D. Vance, won a Republican Senate primary in Ohio, riding the coattails of the ex-president.

Vance, an author, defeated perennial conservative candidate Josh Mandel, who was leading in the polls before the Trump endorsement. In third place, with more than 20 percent of the vote, was Matt Dolan, a state legislator, who ran as a non-Trumper. The establishment candidate, former party chair Jane Timken, finished a distant fifth.

Some Washington establishment Republicans, principally Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), have given indications they hoped Trump’s influence was diminishing and that the party could look ahead in the midterm contests this year and the 2024 presidential election. That isn’t Trump’s agenda — he still wants to focus on the 2020 election, refusing to acknowledge he was clearly defeated and wanting to punish any dissenters; GOP congressional leaders ignore him at their own peril.

There are several big tests ahead for Trump. In Georgia he’s trying to unseat Gov. Brian Kemp, whom Trump thinks didn’t do enough to overturn the 2020 election results in that state; Trump’s embracing David Perdue, who was defeated last year for reelection to the Senate. Perdue, by most accounts, has run a terrible campaign, and Kemp seems likely to coast to victory in the May 24 primary.

A week before that, there are two other Trump tests where he endorsed candidates who were behind in the polls. In Pennsylvania he’s backing Mehmet Oz, a celebrity television doctor, having rejected pleas from David McCormick, a hedge fund executive. Also on May 17, Trump-supported Ted Budd, a right-wing congressman running for U.S. Senate in North Carolina, has pulled ahead of former Gov. Pat McCrory, according to polls.

On May 10, Nebraska Republican gubernatorial candidate Charles Herbster has Trump’s active support as he tries to overcome charges from multiple women, including a Republican state legislator, that he sexually groped them. 

There are no real ideological or policy litmus tests for Trump’s endorsements. It’s chiefly about obeisance to him, whether or not he’s familiar with the candidate. Campaigning in Nebraska last weekend, Trump confused who he had supported in Ohio: “We’ve endorsed… J.P., right?” he said. “J.D. Mandel. And he’s doing great.” That appeared to conflate Josh Mandel with Trump’s actual endorsee, J.D. Vance.

And the former president still faces legal problems. A grand jury has been called in Atlanta on charges that Trump illicitly tried to steal the Georgia election, which Biden won. There is a recorded phone call of Trump pressuring Georgia’s secretary of state, Brad Raffensperger, to find 11,780 votes so Trump could pull ahead of Biden. Raffensperger refused.  

The New York attorney general has an ongoing fraud investigation of Trump and his company that has drawn the fury of the former president. Trump dodged, however, the most serious case when a new Manhattan district attorney inexplicably sidetracked a criminal investigation despite two experienced prosecutors declaring there was sufficient evidence to indict Trump.

In Ohio, Vance, author of the best-selling “Hillbilly Elegy,” was an anti-Trumper in 2016 — but he flipped, courting the ex-president with lavish praise. And it worked.

In the general election Vance will face Rep. Tim Ryan, who easily won his primary. Ohio has become a solid Republican stronghold, but Ryan has blue collar appeal, and it could be a close contest. Incumbent Sen. Rob Portman is retiring.

Incumbent Republican Gov. Mike DeWine won the nomination for another term, defeating a couple of right-wing challengers who criticized DeWine’s public health restrictions during the pandemic. Democrats tapped former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley. DeWine is favored in November, even though the Republican Party in Ohio is enmeshed in a $60 million bribery scandal. 

In a Democratic ideological test, Rep. Shontel Brown, a mainstream progressive, decisively defeated Nina Turner, a left-wing Bernie Sanders supporter, in a primary contest for an Ohio House seat.

Al Hunt is the former executive editor of Bloomberg News. He previously served as reporter, bureau chief and Washington editor for The Wall Street Journal. For almost a quarter century he wrote a column on politics for The Wall Street Journal, then The International New York Times and Bloomberg View. He hosts Politics War Room with James Carville. Follow him on Twitter @AlHuntDC.