A leaked draft opinion suggests that the U.S. Supreme Court is prepared to overturn the landmark decision Roe v. Wade, which guarantees a woman a constitutional right to abortion up to 24 weeks of pregnancy, or the point of “viability.”
The leak of the draft is a bombshell that could decisively change the order of battle heading into the midterm elections. Reversing Roe would deprive women of choice over their reproductive health, but it also gives Democrats a chance to maintain control of Congress.
If the high court does overturn Roe, it will become the court that kicked the hornet’s nest. Republicans are favored to win back control of the House but the fury over Roe could change that.
A new national survey from the Washington Post and ABC News indicates that Americans support abortion rights by a two-to-one margin. A big majority of the public also believes that abortion should be legal in all or most cases. A national survey from PBS and NPR conducted shortly after the Texas abortion ban became law demonstrated that most Americans opposed the draconian measure out of the Lone Star State, which bans virtually all abortions after six weeks of pregnancy with bounty hunter enforcement.
Texas is not alone. A dozen other states have passed “trigger bans,” which are laws severely restricting access to abortions that will automatically go into effect if an official opinion from the Supreme Court overturns Roe. Many of the state bans would even force young women who are victims of rape and abuse to bear children against their will.
Pundits have been predicting a Democratic midterm meltdown for months. But the apparent reversal of Roe demonstrates why surveys are simply snapshots and not moving pictures. Polls are just possibilities not certainties and they can change fast. Dramatic events like a reversal of Roe can reshape the probabilities and the political landscape in a big hurry.
The impending ruling could significantly change the midterm campaign conversation that currently favors Republicans. The big issue up to this point has been rising consumer prices, including for gasoline and groceries. Despite significant gains in employment during Joe Biden’s presidency, inflation has become a key issue for voters unhappy with his presidency. The fight over abortion rights likely won’t surpass economic concerns but it will move quickly up the charts now that there is a direct threat to reproductive freedom. GOP candidates who want to talk about inflation will be forced to explain their hostility to privacy, which will not be easy to do for a party that espouses personal freedom
The emergence of the abortion rights fight could also cure the case of apathy that now afflicts the Democratic base. Polls show that Republican voters are more excited about the midterm elections than their Democratic counterparts. This is certainly the case with young voters who are not jazzed about the November elections. But millennial and Generation X voters are strongly in favor of abortion rights and the alarm over reversing Roe is the thing that could just wake the hibernating bear out of its slumber. Older voters may wish to turn back the clock, but younger voters just want to move forward.
Pennsylvania is a state where the battle over abortion rights could be decisive in the outcome of a U.S. Senate race that could determine control of the upper chamber. GOP incumbent Sen. Pat Toomey is retiring and it’s a moderate state that Joe Biden won in 2020. The primary on May 17 will determine the identity of the candidates. But it likely that a Democratic who supports abortion rights will face an anti-abortion Republican, which would set clear contrast between abortion philosophies in a pro-choice state. The shock of a Roe reversal could set up a tidal wave in the liberal Philadelphia suburbs and elect a Democratic senator who could be the decisive factor in partisan control of the upper chamber.
If there is not enough support in Congress to codify reproductive freedom into federal law, action will shift from Washington, D.C. to state capitals. The spotlight will burn brightly on incumbent Republican governors who have denied women the right to make choices about their own bodies.
Democrats have promising candidates challenging anti-abortion Republican governors. Gov. Greg Abbott who touts the onerous restrictions in Texas faces a strong Democratic abortion-rights challenger, Bato O’Rourke. Another champion of abortion access, Democrat Stacey Abrams will challenge the anti-abortion governor of Georgia, Brian Kemp. But that’s if Kemp survives his primary challenge from former Sen. David Perdue, who has the enthusiastic backing of former President Donald Trump.
Women want to make this crucial reproductive health care choice themselves with their doctor, friends and family. They don’t want to be forced to carry an unwanted, unaffordable or life-threatening pregnancy by politicians pandering to religious zealots. The possibility of a Roe reversal is a serious threat to women but also a danger to dreams of GOP victory in November.
Brad Bannon is a Democratic pollster and CEO of Bannon Communications Research. His podcast, “Deadline D.C. with Brad Bannon,” airs on Periscope TV and the Progressive Voices Network. Follow him on Twitter: @BradBannon